Posts by Farmer Green
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Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to Farmer Green,
I was referring to the measured (Had crut data reported by the British Met. Office) AVERAGE increase in the GLOBAL AVERAGE T over the last 140 years of 0.055 deg. C./decade.
Corrected.
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Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to Alan Thatcher,
” how would you envisage managing pastures under such a scenario while minimising time with a tractor and a mower?”
There are ALWAYS dry cows when one milks year-round; they are a potent pasture management tool to achieve the desired residual dry matter covers.
Additionally , milking for 365 days without nitrogen , PKE or “dairy support” (I just love that term) requires a reserve of home made supplement; typically 6-9 months supply of pit silage is necessary to maintain steady production through hell and high water (droughts and floods).
So feed conservation is another pasture management tool to replace the grazing pressure/high stocking rate that is normally used to maintain pasture “quality”.
Farmer Green’s observation is that cows on the so called " quality" pasture that is common in Godzone could make a reasonable attempt at shitting through the eye of a needle.Of course it is not just quality feed that would be required ; the breeding objectives currently employed by LIC are quite unsuitable for this scenario. Breeding for high BW produces exactly the opposite of what is required , i.e it produces a cow more suitable for milk powder production. PW = powder worth , right? :-)
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Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to BenWilson,
I apprehend that you may be inadvertently misconstruing my meaning there . It is just semantic variation.
Here’s what I said;
“To say that ““The globally averaged surface temperature peaked in 1998, and has been on a slight downward trend since then”
is not to deny that global warming continues.”I was n’t using the term “global warming” in the cult sense (DACC or CAGW); I was referring to the measured (Had crut data reported by the British Met. Office) increase in the AVERAGE GLOBAL AVERAGE T over the last 140 years of 0.055 deg. C./decade.
It would be a good thing if that were to continue
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As you probably know the rate of increase in G.Av. T. has slowed to 0.03 deg. C. /decade for the period beginning 1997 to the present. (Had Crut)If that (0.03/decade) continues until 2030 then the rate must increase to about 0.07 deg. C. /decade from 2030- 2060 if the long term trend is to be maintained at 0.055/decade.
That is the global warming that I would like to see continue.
Anyone who farmed through the Pinatubo and Mt Hudson years knows that the alternative to global warming is not good. -
Hard News: Environmental league tables…, in reply to Russell Brown,
" we should be focused on what we’re doing on a local level, and not how we compare to Burundi or whereever."
Hear , hear!
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Sorry about the order of these, which is reversed from the order in which they were posted: I realised part way through the cut and paste that I was doing it all wrong. Read from the bottom up.
5) ” ; the trifecta is “clean green and fresh”.
It is fresh product ; cultured food; stability achieved by acidification, not by water removal and drying.
Shelf life from manufacture is 12-16 weeks . The destination is nearby Asia by seafreight.
The limit to sales is the amount of supermarket shelf space that you can occupy every day, so the production in your lowest month is your limiting factor for total sales. You want it as flat as possible.
And if you produce more than your allotted shelf space then you are forced to turn the fresh raw milk into a longer-life , lower-value product , like powder.
We had such an industry in Godzone once ; it was the first thing to be abolished when the current shemozzle was first mooted.The reason we have to produce all the milk when it is cheapest to do so (seasonally)is because we are turning it into low value commodities.
Remember where the dairy industry is coming from; we once aimed to be the cheapest producer in the world. The corollary is that our farmers were the lowest paid. All of that has changed (and Britain joined the ECC) but we didn’t redesign the industry to suit the changed conditions.
Your last sentence alludes to the factor of utilisation; all the plant is running all the time. At the moment factories costing $300 million or more lie idle for three months.”4) Q: “Why wouldn’t this just lead to more intensification and more conversions to dairy?”
FG:
It is not necessary to intensify this industry because it is sufficiently profitable. You assume that farmers are driven by something other than mere survival. That is prejudice. Sure there are some pigs , but that is human nature. For most enough is enough.
There is not enough suitable land in N.Z. to support the present cow population at the reduced stocking rate in the FG model. Indeed some of the land recently converted to dairy is completely unsuitable when appropriate environmental constraints are imposed , as they will be.
So there is no way to get up to 6 million cows at 0.5 cows / hectare and still comply with environmental constraints.
In any case you are missing the point that it is the number of cows /Ha that is the problem ; not the number of Ha or the total number of cows.
3) “The theoretical calving pattern for dead flat daily production throughout the year is all cows calving January-June.
No cows calving in Spring ; the worst possible time to calve cows and the toughest on calves, and definitely the worst possible time to have high stock densities.
The figures used are from a real example; the major difference is that all the water was left in the milk; milk is 86% water. Check out a litre of natural yoghurt (additive -free) in a supermarket ; retail will be over $6/litre.
The example uses just under $3/litre for the gross realisation to the dairy company. In fact on a C&F basis $4 -$4.50/litre is possible but $3 is good enough for the purpose of this example.This is what added-value is all about. Milk powder doesn’t cut it.
Why do you mention the beef? Bobby calves?
I haven’t mentioned the on -farm situation; my approach has been solely to show that we can reduce the impact on waterways while raising the amount of money coming into the country , so that we can afford to save what’s left of the conservation estate
But on -farm , it is basically producing half the milk for double the price. Again , taken from an actual example.”2) “The industry currently sells 20 billion litres , produced by 6 million cows (3300 litres/cow), at a gross realisation of about $20billion.
FG ’s model has 1.5 million cows producing 10.5 billion litres on a year-round basis(7500 litres /cow) for a gross realisation of $30 billion.
The stocking rate has dropped from 2cows /Ha to 0.5 cows/Ha. The nitrogen loss to ground water has been substantially reduced.”1) “But it could be very good news for farmers if it was “clean , green and fresh” added-value products coming from the low-impact agriculture.
Low impact is the easy part which takes care of the environmental sustainability (in the relative sense).
The added-value requires the dairy industry to abandon seasonality , and to produce milk all year round (at the very low stocking rates) so that fresh cultured foods (yoghurt , sour cream , cottage cheese, other cheeses etc ) can be made daily for shipping to the rich (top 10%) Asians.
Year- round production also addresses the rebuilding of rural social capital, the destruction of which has occurred over the last 40 years of dairy company amalgamations and centralisation of processing.” -
Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to Alan Thatcher,
Gidday Alan , nice to see you here. If you feel so inclined, and can wade through the superfluity, Farmer Green would appreciate any feedback you might offer, particularly on the economic aspects of the drastically lowered stocking rate, and the added-value proposition.
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398 posts ; more than the U.S election thread on here attracted. That’s slightly encouraging even if 92 of them were from Farmer Green who will shortly depart fom here, taking with him the realisation that the rural/urban divide is a formidable obstacle ; encouraged that the LWF has shown the way forwar; and reminded that persistence , forbearance and a thick skin are necessary attributes if the dialogue is to be expanded to include the many, rather than just the very , very few. . .
Thanks to those who engaged , and those who re-engaged(after the heresy was revealed).
Farmer Green hopes that those concerned with the ecology of Godzone now have a glimmer of hope that not only is a better environmental outcome possible, but that desirable economic and social benefits would also flow from the necessary changes.à bientôt mes confrères
FG. -
The principles of sustainability are well known: I’m interested in why others have little interest in applying them. I’m also interested in the urban/rural divide as a barrier to progress .
I’m interested in not screwing it up for those who follow ; call it a vision if you like . The viability is already proven. It’s what I do and have done for the last 35 years. If there is more I can do , I’ll have a go, because I can.
Dairy , sheep and goats mainly ; less horticulture than previously, and more silviculture in the future I think. Not many neighbours ; the river bounds on three sides. The only one of the neighbours who actually farms his land speaks not a word of English but we swap produce. -
Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to Kumara Republic,
Fonterra floated this idea , or something close to it quite recently. As I
said earlier , their 'co-operative principles' prevent them from going very far down this track. I'll just leave that there for now. It's another whole can of worms involving the DIRA and the default milk price at which Fonterra sells to start-up companies. -
Hard News: Fact and fantasy, in reply to Ross Mason,
You're joking right? . Or you don't know how it works ? I mentioned the improved animal welfare, but you don't get it ?
The cows still only milk for 300 days per year, just as they do now, but they are much better fed.
In reality , in this system they are dried off on production efficiency earlier in the lactation than in the present seasonal system.
Your YRC is pure fantasy; the ones we used to have were just fine.
Oh I see now , you were throwing in the GM canard. I get it; don't worry ; most dairy farmers today don't know how it worked either.