Posts by steve black
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Alas, the mainstream news media don’t understand statistics and data analysis (as you well know) and years ago they to put about a major piece of spin by talking about “global warming” rather than “global climate change”. That one piece of spin did the trick for years. Rodney still uses it here.
Breaking news for mainstream media (and Rodney Hyde): a change in variation may be more important than a change in some central tendency like the average. If the climate becomes more variable (both place to place in one country, and in the way variation happens over the seasons) you could EXPECT MORE WEIRD WEATHER. You know…CHANGE? Like maybe the wettest month ever, the driest month ever, the most ice in one particular place where a ship gets stuck in summer? Like the concern insurance companies have with how to set risks?
An interesting recent post on NZ Statschat:
http://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/01/06/in-the-deep-midwinter
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edit Oh, it was in the original post by yet another Brown (no relation)
I may have missed it if somebody else posted it already…
But I couldn’t wait to point out that Whaleoil has prior form himself. And there’s even a Brown in it:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10813552
Mr Pot, meet Mr Kettle.
edit anyway, I'll use the space to add my vote to:
What's this "center" right of which you speak? These are right wing people. Plain and simple.
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I think the important thing to remember is that having less “Big Government” is also what the Republicans want. So they aren’t crazy. They are getting what they want. When the US Government has to shut down they win. If the “compromise” is agreed on which repeals or delays Obamacare, they win. If there is a rider defunding abortions (or whatever), they win. Having a win every which way is not the act of crazy people. It is very clever working towards an end. I don’t like the end, but I can recognize calculated action vs crazy when I see it.
Not also it isn’t new. See wikipedia on US Govt Shutdown. There is a long enough list. The sky didn’t fall.
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Hard News: Rape and unreason, in reply to steve black,
Just in case somebody "fact checks" me, that 99.9999% was a typo and it is supposed to be 99.999%. I blame key bounce. Yes, I still use an actual keyboard. And my computer is connected to my router by a bit of cable. :-)
I was off reading up on what Obamacare is, and which I came back to the this tab I was past the time for editing. *sigh*
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A fact check on Bob Jones claim that 99.9999% of men aren't rapists:
http://www.statschat.org.nz/2013/10/01/making-up-numbers/
because it would imply there were about 20 in NZ. You will see that our own Graeme Edgeler picks nits in the comments regarding the definitions used.
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Oh what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to be spiders. -
I have a hard time reading that Dom Post article and I’m a statistician! Did the online version lose all its formatting, or was it published that way? Yeeech.
Yes, the two requirements for polls to pass muster are:
(1) get a representative sample from the right people, where you can calculate the probability of selection for each person. Self selected polls need not apply. Reader polls need not apply.
(2) report the predicted outcome using the right metric to get there. If preferential voting is used then you have to collect the right information from informants so you can replicate the procedure used in the counting.
The Dom Post seems to fail on both counts.
What sort of nonsense (or mischief) is going on when we see
…had support from 27 per cent of the 635 readers
and
Of those surveyed, 275 were eligible to vote in the Wellington City Council elections
in the same article?
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So now that we have all greeted one another, who will win?
The database boat or the airline boat?
That's what I've taken to calling them.
I do like the idea of P Class or Laser, but I'd make it a bit bigger and something more local. Say voyaging waka?
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So let me get this right. You're complaining that an ad isn't 100% pure truth?
I believe that the Advertising Standards Authority has tested that and decided that is 100% allowed.
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Hard News: Community standards, in reply to wendyf,
Depression...
Good question. Perhaps because of its association with weather forecasts? That makes as much sense as everything else I've seen among those who would save humanity from biology...themselves...whatever.
The serious answer (read guess) is that there might be a statistical association between the presence of depression as a tag and other things they want to block like: suicide, gay, lesbian, etc. No real association of course in terms of content and meaning. Just the frequency with which certain combinations of tags occur. Block an apparently related (but actually quite innocuous) tag and you get a higher kill rate...of the wrong things (at the level of meaning). But your blocking stats look good.
This has been a fun read. Thanks to all of you for the nice links. Unlike some of you I did have to go and look up some terms. I lead a sheltered life.
Anybody remember when a certain fast food chain brought in free wireless and blocked sites which were there to help support gay and lesbian teenagers?