Posts by Kumara Republic
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to BenWilson,
No, I dispute that they’re a basket case. They’re still twice the party that the Greens are, even at their absolute worst, in terms of support. The perception of them fucking up the messaging is one I think I’ll wait for some polling to judge. That I personally don’t like the messaging is no indication of anything at all. I’m not a sample. I don’t even vote for them.
My inner Machiavellian predicts this move will reinforce the Greens’ double-digit poll ratings, as it would probably attract Labour’s liberal elements. While Labour itself has concluded the Missing Million is a lost cause, so it focuses on Winstonites and the Waitakere men & women who might have voted for Helen once.
And from a more personal viewpoint on the whole controversy: a long-time family friend who’s a bit of a hunting/fishing/military type moved from Wellington to Auckland (Massey specifically) several years back, because it was the only place where his post-grad science degree would get him work. He once split his votes between Labour & Greens in Helen’s day (while still in Welly), but having lived and breathed the Auckland rat race, he’s become more bitter & cynical enough to swing to NZF. From what he’s told me – including a lot of stuff about the Auckland housing bubble – he sounds very much like the kind of voter Phil Twyford is pitching to.
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Would you believe this is a Fran O article, given her NZ-China biz links?
NZH – Fran O’Sullivan: Govt must act over foreign house buyers
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Not surprisingly, Chris "Waitakere Man" Trotter comes in to bat for Twyford.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Paul Campbell,
Sacha doesn’t Australia have a law that prohibits foreign house purchasers from buying existing dwellings? …. the only way they CAN buy one is by building a new one.
Mind you they also charge foreign real estate investors 30-45% capital gains tax
They do indeed. And it's the most popular choice in the unscientific Herald poll, with the UK foreign CGT option a distant 2nd. And for the BNZ's Tony Alexander.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to Russell Brown,
That’s the weak part of his post, for sure. Attributing the problem to consents and zoning is pretty much an unsupported assertion.
Bureaucracy gone mad? Or NIMBYs, especially the 'Epsom property rights' kind?
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to BenWilson,
I don’t know if it’s a bubble, personally. But if it is, that’s not a good thing. It’s a recipe for the next Great Depression for us.
And if/when it does happen, the Icelandic approach would probably be the least worst approach for NZ.
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How much has changed since 2005?
Asian Vote - Keith Ng (via the Listener)
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Latest is that Barfoot & Thompson are trying to chase the leaker, if it was actually one of their own. And given that the Barfoot patriarch was a big donor to the NACTs at the last election, and the head of the 'Thompson' half of B&T dismissed NZ home buyers as too entitled...
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to BenWilson,
Also, just because I dislike National doesn’t mean I think Labour has got some moral high ground, some onus to give only the purest academic grade research every time they crank out an opportunistic statistic. It’s not going to get my vote, but they’d be having to work pretty hard on that anyway.
Thankfully we have a political system that allows 3rd parties to get a foot in the door.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to nzlemming,
As others have noted, Auckland’s problem (as well as the rest of the country, perhaps) appears to be partially that of rentiers owning too much of the property and thus preventing would-be home owners from getting into the market. There are thousands of properties vacant in Auckland at the moment, because it’s more profitable to the owners to keep them that way as a land bank. Those are the discussions we should be having.
A problem that had its origins way back in the 1987 NZSE bubble burst. Those who got burned by that are likely today's housing rentier class who have cartelised the housing market. It's anyone's guess as to when the Auckland housing bubble will pop, because the political system doesn't have the balls to fix it.