Posts by cindy baxter
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Forgot to mention that great great Arthur C Clarke quote, repeated in Chris Mooney's book about the science of hurricanes and global warming (Storm World)...
"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
You'll find very few young scientists in the AGW sceptic camp.
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I thought it worth pointing this discussion to the BBC's Richard Black's testing of the the alleged "conspiracy" that the scientific world is biased against the sceptics, and in favour of AGW scientific papers.
He wrote to all the sceptics he could find, to find the information which backed up this accusation.
Check out his results.
This was in a series of articles, and I'll link to the last one as well - mainly because he puts it far more eloquently than I ever could.
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again, you're all taking one tiny piece of the puzzle, and trying to use that to argue the big picture - it just doesn't work like that.
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re: sunspots - the whole issue is discussed pretty thoroughly here.
There is a very detailed scientific discussion on all the different pieces of sunspot science. I couldn't possibly take part - I'm not a scientist.But do understand this point: taking just one or two pieces of science from the hundreds of peer reviewed papers in order to justify ones position is easy enough to do. But what drives our climate is hellishly complex - it's the interrelationship between all the different areas - oceans, forests, sunspots, clouds, ocean circulation, C02, methane, sf6, pfcs, hfcs, CFCs, hcfcs... they all contribute. The likes of the IPCC takes the big picture.
There are areas of debate which continue - sunspots is probably one of them. Tropical cyclones/hurricanes are another - the science there really isn't clear, which is what the real scientists are saying - and they continue to publish papers and discuss the results, asking the questions rather than stating point blank that something "isn't" and "cannot be".
The point about the Heartland conference is that few, if any, of the speakers are actual published, peer reviewed scientists.
An example is Fred S Singer, who holds a PhD in the field of satellite and rocket technology. Over the years Singer has, variously, portrayed himself as a scientific expert on a wide range of topics including the science of tobacco & cancer (and second hand smoke), ozone depletion, skin cancer, nuclear waste, nuclear power and toxic waste, amongst other scientific issues. None of these things, Singer has argued, are a problem.
His vociferous criticism on all global warming science hasn't wavered, yet he hasn't published a single peer reviewed paper in around 20 years.
His income comes from the industries, like Exxon, who defend their right to continue producing the chemicals and products influencing all the above topics. All the industries who stand to lose profit if the scientific evidence is confirmed.
And as for the models, they are clearly incredibly complicated, sure, but the scary thing is that it appears that their errors and lack of clarity tend to fall short of the reality. In other words, the reality is that actual events and records are worse than what the models predict.
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so, Scott, when the IPCC agrees with "90% certainty" then it must be pretty robust, right?
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Denial industry because, after all, it is an industry. It's big bucks from big business. Look at all the foreign deniers brought to New Zealand over the years - most recently Nigel Lawson - all paid for by NZ Business, or the Business Roundtable or the like.
we can all decide to be climate change scientists, and pick and choose one piece of science and use it to validate our own view. But the IPCC has looked at ALL the latest peer reviewed science and come up with a conclusion that climate change is happening and that it's 90% certain caused by human activities.
If I was 90% certain the plane I was about to board would crash, then I'd be very unlikely to get on it.
Anyway, speaking of deniers, or whatever you want to call them there's a massive shindig of them gathering in New York next week, courtesy of the Heartland Institute (recipient of around US$800,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998).
Our very own Owen McShane and Vincent Gray are going. Given that they're speakers they'll get their hotels paid for and a nice fat $1000 fee from the Exxon-funded Heartland. They must feel terribly important. Start to speak out against global warming and whammo! you get to travel internationally and attend such auspicious occasions.
The scientists at Real Climate were invited, but turned it down.
The groups gathered in New York collectively represent literally millions from Exxon and other big oil, coal and gas companies. There are few, if any, of them who have published a peer reviewed paper on climate in the last 15 years.
Heartland's own money from Exxon has been tagged as being for its "climate change efforts'. And what efforts. Deny all climate science, trash the IPCC, Al Gore... the usual stuff. Oh, and they're also working hard on denying links between second hand smoke and cancer. Big tobacco pays well too.
Now Heartland says that none of the money it's spending on this conference is from Exxon but the Exxon money frees up money Heartland spends elsewhere so that's a fairly specious argument.
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Using less power - definitely a sensible suggestion.
Turning off lights, tv's off standby, installing solar hot water heater so you don't use any to heat your water , good insulation in your house...
Doesn't sound like much but if 4 million of us did it, it would certainly reduce our reliance on Huntly. Small renewable projects where they're needed rather than huge systems are better... Micro hydro rather than big dams, etc
Greenpeace has an energy report out which shows how we could shut down Huntly and not lose jobs or trash the economy.
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Check out George Monbiot in yesterday's Guardian
"The drafting of reports by the world's pre-eminent group of climate scientists is an odd process. For months scientists contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tussle over the evidence. Nothing gets published unless it achieves consensus. This means that the panel's reports are conservative - even timid. It also means that they are as trustworthy as a scientific document can be.
Then, when all is settled among the scientists, the politicians sweep in and seek to excise from the summaries anything that threatens their interests."
His point:
"This is the opposite of the story endlessly repeated in the rightwing press: that the IPCC, in collusion with governments, is conspiring to exaggerate the science. No one explains why governments should seek to amplify their own failures. In the wacky world of the climate conspiracists no explanations are required. The world's most conservative scientific body has somehow been transformed into a conspiracy of screaming demagogues."
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visions of Mum and Uncle Paul having given up and resort to drinking lots of rum n coke and changing the channels on TV... reminds me of a great little thing written by UK graffitti artist Banksy:
"You can win the rat race but you're still a rat
The human race is an unfair and stupid competition. A lot of the runners don't even get decent sneakers or clean drinking water.
Some runners are born with a massive head start, every possible help along the way and still the referees seem to be on their side.
It's not surprising a lot of peoploe have given up competing altogether and gone to sit in the grandstand, eat junk food and shout abuse.
What we need in this race is a lot more streakers"
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meanwhile... up in Whangarei this morning...
Marsden B Scaled Again for Global Climate Rescue Radio Station
Greenpeace activists today scaled the 60m Marsden B power station which is planned to convert to coal and are setting up a radio transmitter on the roof.
Greenpeace is also beaming "climate rescue radio", Heatwave FM on the internet and have launched an open letter to the New Zealand Government demanding urgent action on climate change as part of a Global Day of Action.
The Global Day of Action on climate change will see people from many groups all over the world demand that world leaders take the urgent action needed to prevent the catastrophic destabilisation of our global climate. It is timed to coincide with the United Nations Climate meeting on the Kyoto Protocol, in Nairobi from 6-17 November.
Celebrity DJ 'Bomber' Bradbury and musician Steve Abel will be hosting Heatwave FM and broadcasting online to the world at www.heatwavefm.net They will be getting first hand accounts of Global Day of Action activities not only in New Zealand, but also from Bangladesh to Belgium and will cross live to the activists on the roof of Marsden B.
Later today the Greenpeace activists will be beaming climate rescue radio on 88.3FM to the Whangarei area directly from the proposed power station's roof.
"Last weekend, Helen Clark told the nation it was 'time to be bold on climate change'. She also said 'New Zealand [could] aim to be the first country in the world which is truly sustainable'", said climate campaigner Vanessa Atkinson.
"Marsden B is obviously the first thing that the Prime Minister should be axing – and any other new coal-fired powers stations. Truly sustainable electricity generation comes from renewable energy: sun, wind and water. Not dirty old coal."
If Marsden B goes ahead it would release over 2 million tonnes of climate polluting gases into the atmosphere every year.
"You can't call that sustainable", concluded Ms Atkinson.
Greenpeace has launched an open letter to the New Zealand Government and its representatives calling for action on climate change now (1). People can sign onto the open letter by texting 898 with their name and town or through the Heatwave FM website.
Names can be added until 6pm on Monday 6 November after which a copy of the letter will be delivered to the New Zealand delegation at the meeting in Nairobi. The activists will come down from the roof on Tuesday morning.
"At the United Nations talks on climate change in Nairobi we want the Government to take a leadership role and push for legally binding targets to lower greenhouse pollution and ways to encourage clean technology uptake," said Ms Atkinson.
Greenpeace has made legal challenges to prevent Marsden B from becoming New Zealand's first major coal fired power station in over 25 years. Consent to operate was granted in 2005.
Greenpeace will be hosting a climate rescue picnic outside the front gates of Marsden B on Sunday 12-3pm.