Posts by 3410

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  • Busytown: A Thought Went Up My Mind,

    I also like haiku

    Much like Islander
    I also like haiku
    Mainly in winter

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Speaker: KICK IT! The Wee Fella,

    Okay, I'm an arbster and didn't even know it!

    Gio, lets just put it behind us and carry on in a spirit of peace and understanding. :)

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Speaker: KICK IT! The Wee Fella,

    It's a shame - sounds like we could have all been rich. Rich, I tell you!

    Mock away, pal, if it makes you feel like a big man, but beware; others may just think you're an arrogant dickhead.



    For the record, my reasoning is as follows
    (maths geeks - one of which I am not, really - , feel free to show where I've erred):

    TAB offers* on:

    (a) 'Will NZ be only unbeaten team at WC 2010?':
    $1.57 for 'YES' (ESP wins) and $2.35 for 'NO' (NED wins).

    (b) 'Will Paul the octopus be correct re: WC 2010 final?'
    $1.75 for YES (ESP wins) and $2.00 for NO (NED wins).



    So, bearing in mind that there MUST be a winner and that it MUST be either Spain or the Netherlands, I propose the following two bets:

    (a) $1000 on NO (NED wins) @ $2.35

    (b) $1340 on Yes (ESP wins) @ $1.75

    for a total outlay of $2340.

    IF Spain wins, then return:
    = (a):($1000 x 0) + (b):($1340 x $1.75)
    = (a):$0 + (b):$2345
    = [Total] $2345

    IF Netherlands win, then return:
    = (a):($1000 x $2.35) + (b):($1340 x 0)
    = (a):$2350 + (b):$0
    = [Total] $2350



    Therefore, for a total outlay of $2340, you get:
    $2345 (ie $5 profit) if Spain wins
    OR
    $2350 (ie $10 profit) if Netherlands win.

    Hence, as I suggested, you Can Not Lose. Scale up as required.



    * or was offering

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Hard News: Party central is hurting my head,

    my colon,semi colon key wont work dammit.

    If you need 'em, feel free to just copy these ones: ;)

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Speaker: KICK IT! The Wee Fella,

    I don't think that's the case. I could do the maths, but not quickly, and I have to leave.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Speaker: KICK IT! The Wee Fella,

    Odds are affected by who bets on what. So if you think that NZ will be the only unbeaten team at WC 2010, currently you're better off betting for a Spain win.

    So if you bet a lot on the latter and enough against the former to break even (or is it the other way 'round?; I'm busy, okay?) then you can't lose?

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Speaker: KICK IT! The Wee Fella,

    TAB is offering $1.57 for 'NZ will be only unbeaten team at WC 2010', and $1.75 for 'Paul the octopus will guess the final result correctly'.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't both results predicated on a Spain victory? Why then the difference?

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Hard News: The Commission, and creative risk,

    Fair enough.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Hard News: The Commission, and creative risk,

    From experience know that it is so difficult ( read bloody near impossible) to get humans in decent numbers to attend NZ film even within well supported festivals.

    Yep, that seems to be a huge problem. Unless it's either based on a classic local novel or about Maori, it's pretty much not going to happen.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

  • Hard News: The Commission, and creative risk,

    Have preferred 7days, but at times of late they seem to be, if not crossing the line, at least trampling on it with reckless abandon.

    Meh. To me it's just a rip of Have I Got News For You? with a large amount of the insightful wit replaced with simple coarseness.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report

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