Absolutely not. As of 2pm today we will know (roughly) how many advance votes have been cast but we will not know anything about how they have been cast. Processing the advance votes does start early – but given the number, will not be completed before the final day’s votes are also in. Far more important than any perceived efficiency is ensuring no influence on the continuing voting process.
That’s not quite how it’s supposed to work. The previous day's advance votes are not tallied until 2pm on polling day – but the actual results are not scrutinized and therefore are not released until after close of polls. Special votes (including some proportion of the advance votes) take even longer to be assigned to their correct electorate – and may be decisive this time.
[Oh bugger, it’s already Saturday NZ time. Check: no party named, no recommendation made <=> post unproblematic I hope]
The system works on trust
Indeed it does, and that’s a good thing, and I would not change it.
I do not recommend that anyone vote while technically ineligible. (If their vote were subsequently challenged for any reason, that would have serious consequences.) I am not even suggesting that people actually do this in any significant numbers. (So this is not a “problem” that needs “fixing” — any fix would impose more barriers to legitimate voting and therefore would be worse.)
I merely note that it is a source of uncertainty when counting “eligible voters” and trying to account for non-voting: the presence of registered expats who don't vote because they are not currently eligible, but who don't deregister because they might be eligible next time, means that the stats look worse than they are.
Probably because it is actually written for a different audience and just copied over here, and the original brief is to cheerlead for new initiatives rather than offer critical in-depth assessment. Kind of like a tech Country Calendar. Fair enough, it doesn’t pretend to be anything else.
As to improvements: two obvious ones would be (i) sound quality needs to at least allow speech to be heard; and (ii) use post editing to add narrative structure and frame the chat segments (as per Country Calendar voiceover).
Continuing with TPPA after it was shafted (and then abandoned) by the US offers absolutely no possible net benefit to NZ.
The decision exemplifies National’s economic mismanagement (cf. also the dick move of hiding the studies that prove no benefit from their favorite roadworks. It has been a government of lies and appearances rather than actual positive achievements).
I am disappointed that Labour (which indeed did start the TPPA negotiations, back before the US changed the terms) did not subsequently distance itself from it. But I’m angry at National ramming it through regardless of the economic case.
Differences of less than the margin of error should not be called a swing.
Basically, we won’t know the result until after Saturday (and that’s all that poll says). Time to stop speculating and start voting if you haven’t already done so.
Interesting thing: in practice, there is no independent check on where your passport has been between elections, and there is no independent check on whether you are in one of the occupation categories exempted from the NZ residence criterion. By default, you are assumed to remain eligible until you say otherwise. Thus many expats will still be counted as eligible voters whether or not they actually meet the legal criterion. You really do have to deliberately decide to exclude yourself from eligibility.
That might also be asked, but doesn't exclude the advance voters.
If I were writing the initial screening question, it would be something like
“Do you intend voting in the New Zealand general election on Sept 23?”
which excludes at one stroke those who have already voted, and those who won’t be voting at all.
Can anybody who has been polled confirm whether some such screen is being applied?
One has to weigh that 340k number against the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote. Many would have Auckland as their most recent NZ address, which might explain some of the apparent regional disparities.
And as I’ve said before, some of the advance votes will also be new registrations – and those figures are not yet included in the official registration stats.
And as I've also said before, the advance vote total is heading for over 1 million. (I don't think it will get very much higher than that, but it's still comfortably on track for that target.)