Posts by Rob Stowell
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,
“Do you intend voting in the New Zealand general election on Sept 23?”
I was polled by curia last night, and they didn't ask anything of the sort.
And it being Curia - polling privately, I assume, for National's strategists/Stephen Joyce - I lied my face off. 5 or 6 minutes of my time were NOT going to be freely gifted to help inform National.
I was polite and friendly, and so was the caller. It felt odd to be amicably lying heartily, but remorse? - not a scrap :) -
Envirologue: Swamp Monsters – the…, in reply to Alfie,
The spill attributed to kauri excavation is in Ruakaka, and there’s a company called Kauri Ruakaka Ltd. By a strange twist of fate, that company used to be known as Oravida Kauri Ltd.
I'm waiting for the cowpoo to hit the rotor blades, somehow, soon - but it's strangely quiet.
newshub "The 170km pipeline was damaged by a digger driver hunting for swamp kauri at Ruakaka three months ago, the New Zealand Herald reports.
The pipeline remained intact but ruptured when pressure was increased on Thursday.
Refining NZ chief executive Sjoerd Post confirmed to Newshub a digger had scraped over it, and it will take 10 to 15 days to fix."
Read somewhere today it was definitely "kauri ruakaka" but now can't find that. So still waiting for Ms Collins to field some tough questions ... -
Hard News: Friday Music: Laneway,…, in reply to Jamie Larnach,
would so love to use this on a video clip I'm editing at the moment. how I'd love some music budget!
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Speaker: Polling 2017: life beyond landlines?,
With only two major polls, and this great gulf between them, we can have no clear idea where the real sentiment lies. Undecideds are also fairly high, another indeterminacy to take into account.
Yet the reporting/commentary on 'the latest poll' is ripe with hyperbolic certainty. Still waiting for some pundit to squash the hyperventilating by pointing out the flimsiness of the rationale behind it.
The unseen factor - which we can only judge by the actions of the politicians - is that there's at least as much private polling by the parties as public polling by the media. You can sense it - a magnetic force pushing and pulling the campaign messages and talking points - but we don't get to see it.
Best guess: it's bloody close. (But it might not be!) -
Hard News: Friday Music: A genuine original,
rip celia. the world a little blander today. really feel for the patel family - hope they are doing ok.
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Tom Semmens,
Ilam could be interesting - fingers crossed. At least, if all the green and labour voters strategically voted for Manji. He's a popular councillor, and fairly well-liked and respected locally. Brownlee isn't especially well-liked, even by National people I talk to.
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Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to simon g,
The problem for the Greens is not that they will fall under the threshold, but that they – and therefore all of us – will miss out on some very good potential new MPs.
Yep. I think they need about 7% to get both Chloe Swarbrick and Golriz Ghahraman into parliament (7 and 8 on the list, now Graham has gone.) Definitely worth voting for.
But … I’m still gonna contend, if they consistently look like dropping below 5% on the night (it’s a tricky call, but we all make calculations like this) it’s reasonable to vote for the ‘next-best’ option – as long as that’s still a party you support/like enough/feel will make a positive change.
As someone who’s happily voted Labour many times (tho not lately) and hopes to enjoy a Labour govt next year, right now it’s a pretty easy choice for me – and it would appear from the polls, many other Green voters. -
Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to stephen walker,
a cursory look at the numbers suggests strongly that they will need both the Greens and NZ First to form a government. I mean, are Labour likely to get the largest share of the party vote?
Just at the moment, the unlikely seems ... at least something you don't want to count out :)
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Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to stephen walker,
abandoning the Greens because you think there is a danger that they might not reach 5% and thus waste your vote is potentially very counterproductive, IMHO.
Maybe, maybe not. I'm pretty confident they will bounce back, enough, anyway. But there's no rule that says Labour needs two partners.
Speculating ahead, if National lose, Bill steps down, and Jancinda stays popular, National have real problem finding new talent. Hard to see any of the current mob in cabinet as a credible leader, except Joyce, and he's too ... We could see another long stretch of one-party-on-top. Personally would vastly prefer that to be Labour, but it could leave the Greens out, and a strong opposition is also good.
Democracy is bloody hard to get right. -
Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to izogi,
I wonder if the whole 5% thing in a poll must cause people to reconsider if they want to risk voting for a party that mightn’t make it over.
Definitely. It can cascade like that. I want to vote for them, but if they're polling 4% on Sept 22, sorry - I want to change the govt more...