Posts by Trevor Nicholls

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Well I hope he's right, but if he is right then a big proportion of these votes will be specials (not just early votes) and we may not know he's right until many days hence.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    I am going to make my call - A Labour-Green 62 seat win on the back of a late swing to Labour.

    Here's hoping.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,

    Do we know if CB changed their "modelling"? I know they've said they didn't change their "sampling" before their last poll. But if they kept to the same electorate model then there really has been a big shift since the tax bullshit hit the fan, and Reid picked it up sooner than CB.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to linger,

    Or even, are you enrolled to vote this year?

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    Our information waterways have been inundated with billshit.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to simon g,

    And this is why they lie.

    There were at least three blatant lies (all repeated when challenged) in last night's leaders debate: Labour raising income tax (they aren't, and under Bill's logic if the Nats need Winston in government the Nats will be raising income taxes too), Labour's $11.7B fiscal hole, and Bill's absolute constitutional right as the incumbent to get to try to form a government first (even a minority government?). You can bet Bill knows better on all three questions.
    Before he became PM Bill had a reputation for integrity but he appears to have cast that aside this year (starting with his duplicity over the Todd Barclay saga I think).

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…, in reply to Neil,

    Quite incredible that this is actually being seriously advocated.

    You obviously haven't seen some of the Jacinda attack ads being posted on social media then

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…,

    All this fuss about commitments and changed commitments. In an MMP world, it simply isn't possible for one party to make guarantees like that unless they are also going to guarantee not to enter into any coalition.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    Interpretation of scientific results is inherently subjective - despite most scientists being addicted to their denial of this fact.

    This isn't true. Scientists are generally aware of the difference between reporting facts and offering interpretation, and scientists generally seek to test their interpretations by constructing experiments which will either convert interpretation into fact or dismiss it as erroneous speculation.

    Perhaps you are confusing scientists with paid consultants.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,

    Every polling company has to decide how representative their sample is of the wider electorate. This is usually done with a few questions where the responses can be tested against known big statistics - race, gender, age, etc. Then they have to make assumptions as to how likely various subgroups in their sample/in the wider electorate are to actually vote, etc, etc. The dark arts of opinion pollsters. What we've got here is probably not due to a volatile electorate so much as it is the result of a big difference in the polling models of the two companies. And we won't know which one was right until election day (and even then we can't be certain!)

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 280 posts Report Reply

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