Greens have overwhelmingly ratified the deal. I'm so, so, stoked. I'm just...nah gotta go, it's too much. This is literally the first time I've had basically exactly the government I wanted. Can't process. It's real, it happened, she did it. Too awesome.
Seeing that 7% as the bedrock real Green support base
It's credible. But I still don't buy that a significant proportion of those 7% are not inherently left wing. And the high water marks, the best results ever reached by the Party are almost certainly swingers on the left.
you seem to be discounting those who have (like me) been part of the Green movement their whole lives and vote Green in rejection of the left/right accordingly.
No, I'm aware of you, I just don't think your specific position represents anything like a majority in the support of the Green Party.
As you note, we agree this allows our leftist greenies to differentiate themselves from Labour, but do you not see the disenfranchisement it causes to the authentic Greens within the party? Those who self-identify as neither left nor right, I mean. Those who entered politics to represent the entire Green movement on an authentic basis.
The disenfranchisement you feel is actually a consequence of lacking the numbers, even within the Green movement, to actualize power around your "authentic" position, which is, of course, no more authentic than anyone else's. What you entered politics for does not raise the value of your vote.
I get the definite impression that you either don’t believe people like me exist, or you don’t believe the Green Party ought to represent us.
Not at all. I think it represents you well out of proportion to your actual numbers, but I don't have a problem with that. Environmentalism is the origin and soul of the Green movement. But as it's become larger it's also become broader, and more sophisticated. It's not a one-issue party any more.
The Political Compass website located me precisely in the center of the left-libertarian quadrant: the red dot showed up on my certificate printout right in the middle of Bernie Sanders’ face
Ergo, you are left wing.
But values politics making me an archetypal leftist doesn’t affect my choice to reject both left & right political alignment
I get that your position along that axis is not what you consider most important. But I'm yet to see the numbers on how it goes with the Green voters as a whole group that convince me they'd be willing en masse to sacrifice that position along the Left-Right axis (and every issue that make it up) purely for environmentalist concessions. I think they'd object both on moral and practical grounds. Moral because it involves giving up lots of important belief structures. Practically because environmentalism is fundamentally a matter of human self control and regulation, something that is anathema to the political Right.
the chain between evidence and causal interpretation is very indirect
It sure is. This kind of analysis is basically a recipe for spurious correlation.
Sampling people and asking them would be the more robust way to find out the answer. Of course it is also expensive.
To get the reality (acknowledge the twin tribes within) you’ll have to ditch that binary frame you’re using.
No, you just have to understand that when you measure a new dimension you don't magically kill the old ones. Just because there is altitude doesn't take away that you also have a latitude, and a longitude. It could be zero, but I put it to you that the average Green position on the Left-Right direction is NOT in the middle, it is NOT more Right wing than Labour. I agree that it is more "Green" than Labour.
Furthermore, I think we are talking at cross purposes, because I am referring to what people who actually vote Green think, not what Green official ideology is. I don't care about that very much, just what they have claimed their policy to be and what they have publicly emphasized.
And Russel Norman’s straw poll at our 2015 conference is evidence that our tribe is actually bigger than the leftist greens.
I'm not much interested in tribal analysis. I don't think it's anywhere near as simple as that. The views of millions of individuals, including the many thousands who voted Green, including myself, are varied, and when you actually take the time to do large scale samples, rather than straw polls at conferences, inquiring into the broad range of beliefs and sample the entire voting population, it becomes actually very hard to distinguish the clusters that people think exist. You want to simplify it down to one or two crucial issues and make it all about that.
I don't really know where you're going with this "unethical" and "undemocratic" line. Did you get your vote struck off in one of the meetings or something? People disagreeing with you is exactly how democracy works, and there's nothing unethical about that.
If you're right, it should be fairly readily apparent in Green polling of their own membership and support. I suggest that what is apparent is the opposite, which is why no one even wants to bother with the subgroup who are close enough to National to consider a deal. The party would fragment, and could be completely destroyed. That might happen anyway, if it turns out this group is large enough to achieve that. But I would not bank on it.
That’s why we became neither left nor right.
I can't speak for the party or it's members, or you, or your motivations or political analysis. But I can speak to the supporters, being one, and having seen analysis of their views, and I assure you, they are of the Left. I voted for the Greens in a large part because they are of the Left. In answer to your question of whether every former Labour voter abandoned the Greens already for Ardern, the answer is a clear no in my case, although if the Greens seek to jettison my take on their Leftness, I will certainly jettison my support for them in future.
This is not some unwelcome hitching of my baggage onto the Greens, it is a response to their stated policy and my own view that environmentalism is deeply and fundamentally at odds with the free market views of our current political right. I don't actually place environmentalism that high in how I prioritize political agendas, but it is so strongly correlated with other aspects of social justice and sensible planning for the future that it makes no odds for me. If the Greens revert to being a party that places cleaning rivers ahead of child poverty and homelessness and gets in bed with National, I will dump them immediately. It was their unambiguous statements over a long period of time to the effect that these core values matter to them that places my alignment near them.
You don’t believe that Jacinda already recaptured all the ex-Labour voters who had drifted into the Green camp? How else do you explain the 10% drop??
You're the one telling the story. Keep talking up the blue greens. Eventually that massive sector of the Green support who voted for them so we could get the National Party again will surely rear its head.
Given that the Green movement has been making way more progress globally via blue-green tech than red-green talk
Oh well I guess they don't need to red-green votes then, and can stick to the blue-green ones they already have.
How do we make the editors and producers who let such lies into print or on-screen accountable?
Time will take them from us, I think. It won't be long before everyone with fond memories of FPP is at least gone from any kind of political influence.
FFS, how can a senior journalist not grasp the basic concept of majority.
She grasps it. But when you're out of material and have to get to print, you rerun old stories. It works for a huge part of the readership who is feeling left out because essentially they voted National and haven't grasped that there's a good chance that more than half of the country has had enough of that and National swallowed up all the other options. Basically, they don't have the numbers, but they feel like they should. Like every loser of every close election ever thought.
I well remember the feeling, from some time around 2007. I could tell that Labour was over, and that we faced 6-9 years at least of National. It sucked because I personally found it hard to believe so many people thought that National was a goer. However, the more National voters I met, many of whom were old friends swinging to National, the clearer it was to me that in a representative democracy, eventually people tire of every leadership choice. If your life isn't peaches, who else can be held accountable but the most powerful people for the last decade? And for many it wasn't peaches. And now, it's still not peaches, and back it swings.
You sure it wasn’t an indication of *who* they trust, more broadly?
No, I'm not sure. Demographic info was in the survey, but I've never had the time to look more closely. Multiple factors will contribute to distrusting internet banking, but I'd be willing to bet that age would be very strongly correlated, and it is a completely unambiguous measure as well. There's very little nuance the question of how old you are.