On the scale of interesting Australian politics, the kerfuffle between Howard and Costello in the past few days is right up there. One of the opinions I quickly formed after arrival in Melbourne was that resident Parliamentary comedian Peter Costello simply wasn't leadership material.
Besides the inevitable need to get him coaching to prevent his tendency to smirk on TV, he just never had the spark you imagine in a potential PM. Other than that it was also apparent that Tony Abbott, the current Minister of Health, was subtly placed to be the next leader. My gut feeling was always that Costello may one day inherent the mantle, but a putsch was never going to be too far away.
The big news this week happened when Howard, in what has widely been described as a fit of 'hubris', stated that he would be happy to step up against Beazley in the next election. Of course, the next election is over two years away, and Costello would by that time have been deputy leader for a very long time. A very long time indeed.
Taking into account that the question of leadership is always the one used to needle Costello whenever a journalist wants to aggravate the man, the announcement by Howard that he's planning to stick around and fight, all a few days before the presentation of the budget is probably a colossal blunder by Howard. One of the few the wily old fox has made in the past few years.
Of course, bluster and hot air has ensued, I've never regretted not having access to Australian TV the way I have since the weekend, but the feeling of 'trouble' in the print media is palpable. Of course, there is something of a frenzy on around the issue, but objective writers like Misha Schubert are pointing pretty clearly to a major rift forming in the Coalition. Then you've also got Beazley pointing out (at the bottom of this article), that Costello and Howard really hate one another. Whether this is indeed true is beyond my access to information, but interesting all the same. Forgiveness if you need to log in to access some of these articles, but if you do, it's free (just time consuming).
There's a few factors that complicate the issue. The most important is that the budget is the time when Costello really gets to strut his stuff and demonstrate his potential. A stint as Treasurer seems to be key to a Party that sells itself on economic management, so this is his time, only to have to rug pulled out from under him by a PM who not only states publicly that he's not giving up the mantle despite Costello's many years of patience, but also that this is his 16th budget (thereby stealing the limelight from Costello once again). To return to the article in the Australian linked above, Steve Lewis states very clearly,
Don't be bluffed by shades of public mutual affection. The Howard-Costello relationship has survived for so long largely due to a mutual convenience that hides a more spiteful appraisal of each other. Sometimes the disdain is barely concealed, particularly when the wine has been flowing and the hour is late.
In all likelihood, the clincher in this situation will be Costello gathering enough numbers to challenge Howard, something that's been in the offing for years. Naturally, he's going to come up against Howard's teflon record, any other leader lying like a rug for so many years would have been put out years ago, but 'the people' seem to love the guy. He's like the Casanova of the political world, he can say and do whatever the hell he likes, and they still let him get away with it.
The next factor is the last election campaign. Labor tried pretty hard to land any kind of punch on the Coalition by pointing out that a vote for Howard is effectively a vote for a much less popular leader, Costello. No one was too worried it seems. More important is the larger number of backbenchers, and the small amounts of disaffection over things like asylum seekers and tax reform. If Costello could translate that disaffection into support, he might just have a chance, but it remains a long-shot.
Which suggests that Tony Abbott, known around Canberra as 'the mad monk' (i'll explain in future), is more likely to be Howard's successor.
PS. My first retraction!! I'm so proud. It seems that Whinny may have had a case for Labour to answer. Mind you, it would have been good to see such ardor from Opposition the face of immigration from other oppressive regimes, such as Apartheid South Africa, but hey. So, my apologies, I jumped the gun and shot the foot out of my mouth.