OnPoint by Keith Ng

402

Sunlight Resistance

They say sunlight is the best disinfectant. It always seemed like a self-explanatory concept: Wrongdoing is exposed, wrongdoers scuttle back into the shadows.

But what happens when you crank up the sunlight, and the brightly-lit assholes just stand there staring back at you, giving you the fingers?

--

The score so far is grim.

Consider what we know about Judith Collins: Her facilitating (or maybe outright commissioning) of character assassination against a civil servant, her appointment of Slater's accomplice Aaron Bhatnagar, her "tip-line" contributions, her nonchalance at being told Slater was getting a piece of evidence by Police to discredit people who had charges against them dropped (quote: "Oh gosh, what a shock."), and of course, Oravida.

Keep all of that in mind, then consider this: She survived all of that.

Judith Collins resigned by accident, the day before Matt Nippert's piece on Mark Hotchin came out. Key believed (incorrectly, it turned out) that Nippert had evidence linking Collins to Hotchin's campaign, and pushed her before the story hit. This wasn't Key looking for an excuse to fire Collins over what was already known. Her resignation came because of what Key thought was coming.

If they waited another 24 hours to act, Collins would still be a minister right now. This was no victory for sunlight, just a fortuitous fuck-up.

Ede's departure is obviously a result of Dirty Politics, but he was just (to borrow a word) a henchman. He was the link between Key's office and Slater, and he managed to hide for the entirety of the campaign, having never said a word about how much Key knew.

That he has resigned is better than nothing, but it's not accountability in any substantive sense. The people who gave the orders were never held to account, and Ede's career isn't dead - he is simply metamorphosing into the next stage of his lifecycle, into something further away from the public eye, like Carrick Graham or Simon Lusk.

--

Journalists haven't been lazy this election, nor have they been biased. They hit Dirty Politics hard for weeks, and they're pretty indignant at people heaping scorn on them. I feel for you, guys, but you need to look at this from the outside. "Sunlight is the best disinfectant" is supposed to be a description of your job, your role in the democratic process.

And you have failed. It might not be your fault, but nonetheless, you have failed.

"Asking the hard questions" is a means, not an end. People hold up Guyon Espiner's interview with Key as a fantastic piece of political journalism. It was certainly engaging. But (to borrow a phrase) at the end of the day, it was just Espiner yelling at Key for not answering any goddamn questions. And while Key sounded like a dick, he won - no amount of yelling could make Key say anything apart from his scripted lines. Despite continual pressure over the following weeks, Key successfully avoided questions about how much he knew about Ede's involvement with Slater and delivered his lines to discredit Hager and distance himself from Slater.

"Key sounding evasive in an interview" is not meaningful success; but failing to get a single honest answer is meaningful, abject failure. We are so used to never getting a straight answer out of politicians, we don't even see it as the point of interviews anymore!

To get some perspective of how bad things are, we virtually considered it a victory when he declared Judith Collins to be "unwise". A minister who legislated against cyberbullying conspired to send a mob of cyberbullies towards a civil servant, lied about it then got found out. "Unwise." That was the closest journalism got to holding anyone accountable this election.

I appreciate that this isn't the fault of journalists. You asked tough questions. You reported the answers faithfully. It's not your job to swing elections...

...except it kinda is.

This goes to the heart of Key's line about Hager and Greenwald - that it is wrong for journalists make stories political issues during election time, that elections are times for politicians to speak, and the media's proper role is simply to report what they say. It sounds reasonable and straightforward, except it's at odds with the media's responsibility to hold politicians to account. The only leverage journalists have to do this is political, and that leverage is strongest during an election campaign.

I'm not saying this is something political journalists should do. I'm saying this is what political journalists already do. I felt I had to say it anyway because "journalists trying to swing elections" seem like dirty phrase, but when you think about it, it is what they do everytime they "hold someone to account" for bad behaviour - they make it hurt like hell politically.

Think of it this way: If a Gallery journalist broke Dirty Politics and Key lost the election, would they say that it had nothing to do with them because it's not their job to sway elections, or would they claim the shit out of that scalp and put it in the trophy room?

I'm also stating it explicitly because the connection needs to be made: National's landslide victory means that the media's reporting of Dirty Politics has had no effect. The media had no power to punish politicians for bad behaviour.

This is why people are being dicks to you, journalists. They only see the failure, not the effort. You can't blame them for not giving you points for effort. And if you show no sign that you share their concerns at the failure, then of course they're going to think you didn't care in the first place.

--

Reasonable people can disagree about why the media failed.

It could be that the Left were just abysmal fuck-ups - so even when people were convinced National was doing bad things, they refused to vote for the alternative. If this was true, I think it would be quite genuinely not the media's fault.

Or maybe these things simply take a long time to play out. Nixon won by a landslide after Watergate because it took a long time for the complex allegations to crystalise, and longer still for it to pierce Nixon's public image. Maybe the media is having influence in terms of cleaning up politics, but it just takes a long time for it to become apparent.

Or maybe Key is right that people only care about tangible things, not wishy-washy things like integrity. Maybe they expect no integrity from politicians.

Here I think the Press Gallery in particular has to start taking some responsibility. The Gallery congratulates "good political management" (aka spin) as if getting away with shit was a virtue and getting caught is the sin; it talks about "it's bad look" as if every issue was a matter of mere appearance, without actual consequences or right and wrong; it tripped over itself to declare dirty politics to be something which savvy insiders knew all about, and that to be shocked or disgusted by the systemic assholery is to be naive.

The Gallery's reporting has contributed to a culture where "political engagement" means to cynically understand "the game". Can we be surprised then, that this has finally permeated into public consciousness, and anything and everything is all just part of the game?

(I won't go on about it any more here, but basically it's Jay Rosen's Cult of Savviness argument. If you are a political reporter, you need to read this.)

The scariest possibility is that National have finally achieved full-spectrum dominance over the media. That the combination of sophisticated polling and focus-grouping (Hi David!), Key's personal brand, and media management system (including the use of back channels like Slater and... others) now allows them to subvert the media's every move. They know that the cost of completely ignoring your questions is neglible. They know that they can negate a bookful of allegations just by calling Hager partisan. They know you'll give up on Ede if they just hide him for long enough. They know they can throw a bunch of CORTEX-CYBERHACKING-ANTIVIRUS-BUTTS-MALWARE-METADATA obfuscations into the air, and simply choke a story with irrelevant facts.

Again, reasonable people can disagree about why the media failed. But, if you accept that the media has a role as a watchdog, then you must see that it has utterly failed in that role.

If you don't believe me, believe Cameron Slater, Simon Lusk, Carrick Graham, Jordan Williams and Katherine Rich.

130

"Project SPEARGUN underway"

Let's get this out of the way: The Warner Bros email was a complete clusterfuck. Faced with claims that the emails were fake, TeamDotcom did a TeamKey - they got Hone to send it off to the Privileges Committee then flat out refused to talk about it because, apparently, it needs to work through that process and talking about it would somethingsomethingsubjudicelookoverthere. They refused to talk about where it came from, and when asked whether it was fake, Kim Dotcom could only manage a "to the best of my knowledge" response, and said they weren't there to talk about that email (contrary to what he's been saying for months, right up to yesterday).

Basically, they have no confidence in the veracity of that email - and so neither should we.

BUT!

Glenn Greenwald's material, on the other hand, is solid. He has documents showing the progress of a programme called "SPEARGUN". According to Greenwald, this project involved the "covert installation of 'cable access' equipment" on the Southern Cross cable (i.e. Tapping into New Zealand's traffic with the rest of the world). The existence of this capability cannot be denied.

In response to the Southern Cross cable's operators saying that such a thing was impossible, Snowden (who videoconferenced into the event) asked (I'm paraphrasing): What makes the Southern Cross cable so special that it cannot be accessed undetected by the NSA, when everyone else around the world can be?

The new documents show that the GCSB had a cable access project underway, followed by another document that Phase 1 was "achieved". More crucially, he has a message showing:

(TS//SI//NF) New Zealand: GCSB's cable access program SPEARGUN Phase 1; awaiting new GCSB Act expected July 2013; first metadata probe mid 2013.

This shows that they had to wait for the GCSB Act to be passed before SPEARGUN could be used. i.e. The new GCSB Act - the one that supposedly wouldn't expand GCSB powers - expanded GCSB powers to allow them operate a metadata probe on the this cable which they'd tapped.

If this is false, John Key could simply say "SPEARGUN doesn't exist". If SPEARGUN never went anywhere, he could say that too.

Instead, what Key has done is release a bunch of documents about a programme called CORTEX. This was a plan to provide malware detection and disruption services to companies and ISPs.

CORTEX has nothing to do with SPEARGUN:

  • SPEARGUN sits at the major highways of our network, extracting metadata from the traffic that goes through and sending it elsewhere. CORTEX sits at the driveway of businesses and ISPs, checking what goes in and out for signs of malware activity. The two are very different beasts.
  • The metadata probes that Greenwald refers to are used to covertly extract metadata. According to the Cabinet papers, CORTEX "will in all cases operate with the consent of the participating organisations". The programme described in Greenwald's documents is not CORTEX.
  • According to Key, a "test probe" was built to sit on the Southern Cross cable. That is the whole country, not "participating organisations". Further proof that the purpose of the probe had nothing to do with CORTEX.

Why does the probe itself matter? It proves that most of what we know about SPEARGUN is correct. The Government was considering the use of such a probe to get metadata via cable access, and went - at the very least - as far as building one.

Key never said SPEARGUN stopped. He only said CORTEX stopped. In fact, all this elaborate song and dance has been put in place so he can *look like* he's addressing SPEARGUN, when he is doing nothing of the sort.

We are owed some real answers.

61

Why does the top 10% paying more tax? (An interactive story)

I don't understand why National's is trying to get everyone to want tax cuts. And I don't understand how he can get away with this bullshit "12% of households pay 76% of net taxes" line.

"Net taxes" is not a real thing. These are the official tax statistics published by the IRD. "Net taxes" is not among them, nor should it be, because it's estimate of a bunch of arbitrary measures, put together for entirely political ends.

So, I've put together the IRD tax statistics from 2003-12 into this interactive data visualisation, to look at whether the top 10% pay a disproportionate amount of tax, and why.

65

Budget 2014: Yeah okay.

Visualisation is here!

It's a very political budget designed to woo Labour voters - but it should, because the headline policy is actually quite good. I mean, who can complain about extending free primary health care and paid parental leave? It's a great way to spend $500m.

The big worry though, should be in Health. Ryall claims that health spending has reached "a record $15.6b". That's up about 5.4% from last year in real terms... except that $490m of that is refinancing costs (here and here). The trend for actual health spending is much more problematic - it's holding static for the forecast period, and once demographic changes and inflation is taken into account, it's actually falling by nearly 15% in real terms.

That probably won't *actually* happen. More money will be spent on health before we get to that point, but it's a reminder that health is a huge gaping maw that will swallow up a lot money - in case you were thinking about tax cuts already.

Speaking of tax cuts - jesus, are you guys for real? So I've had my head stuck in code all week (er, month), and haven't been paying attention, but it's become clear that the hints about tax cuts were dropped to remind the Gallery of their one true love: Budget items which translate directly into "How Much $$$ Will You Receive" headlines. And the bulges in the Gallery's pants were already starting to show in the Budget lock-up, which bodes poorly for the election. FFS GUYS, STOP BEING SO EASY TO MANIPULATE.

The other clear political message was that $1.5b of new spending was the *only* responsible amount to spend, and that if Labour/Greens promised more than $1.5b of spending, the terrible wrath of interest rates will fall upon us all. I'm taking this with a small pinch of salt.

Ultimately, I think this budget is fine, and National really is doing a reasonable job of managing the finances. I expressed doubts a few budgets ago them pushing the cuts to future governments, but here we are, they've actually worn the worst of the cuts. On the other hand, Bill English takes an awful lot of credit for the economic weather, and blames Labour for the same. We haven't had amazing growth because of National's amazeballs management of the economy - the economy doesn't magically sprout flowers because we hit a surplus target. We simply rebounded from EQNZ and the global economy recovered from the GFC.

More on this next week.

For bonus points: The Porcupine visualisation isn't quite ready yet, but all the data is there if you want to explore for yourself.

Sound of Thunder

My grandfather, in his teens, almost starved to death. His father did starve to death. Before my great-grandfather died, he told my grandfather to leave his two infant sisters behind. My grandfather buried him by himself, and three days later, the elder of his two sisters died. He left the younger sister with a relative, and she too starved soon after.

This is not something I particularly wanted to write about. My first memory of my grandparents' place is of a nice apartment on a leafy street in Hong Kong. That was the world I was born into. That was The World. People starved in Africa, but that's okay, because that's a different world.

My grandfather died when I was four. I wasn't told this story until I was well into my 20s. It's a strange thing to find out that the world as I knew it had barely existed for a decade when I was born. And that my family came from a different world, with experiences that I couldn't even begin to imagine.

But having understood how much the world can change in two generations, I don't understand how people can believe that their world will never change. I don't understand how people can look at the world which the IPCC describes, mouth the words that "climate change is a very serious issue" and simply assume that it would be the same world of flat whites and iPhones that their children inherits. I don't understand how people can accept science describing a world with food and water insecurity, with freak heat waves and droughts and hurricanes, and just believe that their world will continue as is.

Your children may not enjoy a world of growth and prosperity. Your grandchildren may not live in a world of safety and security. Your great-grandchildren may not have three meals a day.

Sometimes I wonder what my great-grandfather's dying thought was. He was, at one point, an engineer of sorts. He built fish (or maybe shrimp?) traps for the village. From what I gather, it was a system of dams which caught stuff when the tide went in and out. We all think like engineers in our family, so maybe he thought about what went wrong, what he could've done differently.

He understood the catastrophe that was coming when the Japanese invaded, and then when China descended into civil war. He tried to prepare. He had, from what I understand, had taro milled and stashed away for a rainy day. But he got sick, and by the time that rainy day came, the food he had stashed had spoiled or been stolen.

Maybe he thought about what he could've done differently. Or maybe his last thought was about how utterly and catastrophically he had failed his children.

That was 70 years ago, and not very far away.