Posts by Michael Homer
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The other thing to note on ipredict is that the trading volume of most of the stocks in question is pretty low (very very low for some of them), and they've all been priced out of whack with each other for a long while. I think the real secret is that there hasn't been any insider trading on most of them at all, and I wouldn't take them as having much predictive value because of that on top of all the other reasons.
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Legal Beagle: Election '11 -…, in reply to Geoff Pritchard,
Open lists sound great in principle, but I’ve yet to come across a concrete proposal that seems workable.
I am a fan of the Dutch system - print the whole list, one vote for an individual who can be elected in their own right, and distribute the excess votes down the list for proportionality. If people want to take the list the party chose they can just tick the name at the top and be done, or they can pick someone particular who represents them best. They've used that system for quite a while now and seem to find it workable.
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Legal Beagle: Referendum '11: counting…, in reply to Steve Curtis,
Yes (almost). They're included in the total counts, but get listed as zero on the booth-by-booth breakdown. It's "fewer than 6" though, so places with exactly six votes do appear.
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More visualisations for Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Epsom, Mana, Mangere, Manukau East, Mt Albert, Ōhariu, Rongotai, and Wellington Central again, with the top five parties at each booth.
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Here is a hacked-up visualisation of party votes in Wellington Central by polling place. Visible area of each circle is proportionate to votes received, and the circles proceed inwards from the most to least votes (for the top three parties at each booth). It's less interesting than I'd expected, but it would work just as well for another electorate if anybody knows somewhere that might be more edifying.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to bmk,
I meant a vote – typing too fast.
No, you don't. Speakers have voted for a decade and a half.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to bmk,
You do lose a seat for speaker
No you don't. Not for fifteen years.
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Legal Beagle: The New Zealand Election Tax, in reply to Keir Leslie,
Why 5% then? If it's to discourage candidates who aren't seriously contesting the electorate, why not 30%? 40%? You can't tell me that Jeremy Greenbrook-Held seriously intends to win Helensville; he's running solely as a stunt to drive publicity for his party. Why not discourage Labour candidacies that aren't going anywhere? Or similarly in a safe Labour seat.
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They can go to the TMO when the ball is or may be in the in-goal area to check groundings, foul play in the in-goal, and whether a player was in touch when they grounded the ball. They can also do it for goal kicks. You can't check anything that happens entirely in the field of play (between the trylines).
If Dagg had grounded the ball and potentially been in touch it would have been reviewable, but since he didn't have the ball over the try-line the referee can only talk to the touch judges about it. It's law 6.A.6 (PDF).
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The link's meant to go to "SAS had key role in Kabul firefight - report".