Posts by Joshua Arbury

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  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    Didn't Mt Roskill SH20 stray into the Avondale-Southdown rail designation, but that was OK because enough room was left for a future railway line.

    One would assume/hope that the same process happens here.

    Duncan, yup Alan Wood Reserve is gone. We can look forward to a motorway out the window.

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    Yes Fletcher, it will be a traffic management nightmare to build a motorway under one of Auckland's busiest arterial roads.

    And the ironic thing is that the very same motorway won't actually relive congestion on the road above it!

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    One would imagine that Ontrack would demand that their rail designation not be screwed with. Therefore NZTA would need to ensure that a railway line could be put through.

    That may mean building the motorway in a way that stays outside the rail designation (or only goes within it in a small enough way to not sacrifice the ability for two rail tracks to go through it) or that may mean building the motorway in the rail corridor but assisting Ontrack in designating land to "make up for it". I'm not sure how that works legally though, as you can't designate for "off-setting".

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    This guy = Steven Joyce

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    Let’s say that I run a company which sells two different products: red socks and blue socks, for example. 84% of what I sell are red socks and 16% of what I sell are blue socks. Therefore, 84% of my current machinery is dedicated to making red socks and 16% dedicated to making blue socks.

    Now, over the past few years my sales of red socks have been pretty constant, in fact they haven’t increased since 2004. Over that same time period my sales of blue socks have increased significantly – by around 20-30% even. Furthermore, I know that 5-10 years into the future my main ingredient for making red socks is going to increase dramatically in price, and my prices will need to go up significantly to reflect this. Therefore my likely future sales of red socks are going to stay constant or perhaps even decline. As people will still need to buy socks, blue socks will become comparatively cheaper and more popular.

    Now, a few questions:

    Over the next 5-10 years is it more likely that my sales of blue socks will increase, or my sales of red socks?

    Given that my sales of red socks haven’t increased since 2004 and because I’m mindful of future price increases in a very important ingredient, should I build another machine that makes red socks?

    Given the recent increase in my sales of blue socks, should I add capacity to the production of them instead?

    Would it be wise, in a business sense, for me to focus the vast majority of the money I have to spend on capacity increases on red socks?

    In case anyone got lost in the metaphor, private vehicles are red socks, public transport is blue socks. Steven Joyce is proposing to spend the vast majority of transport funds for new infrastructure on roads, even though the number of vehicles using the roads is not increasing. Meanwhile, our “growth sector” of blue socks/public transport is getting ignored and deprived of necessary funds.

    Geez I thought this guy was a successful businessman. He sounds like numbskull to me.

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    Yes, the "follows existing rail designation is a worry".

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    60% underground. Through Alan Wood Reserve. Underneath Great North Road???? Underneath New North Road.

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    It could certainly be worse..... a diagram would be nice.

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: That Buzzing Sound,

    Having seen the draft bills for the Auckland reconstruction (I'm quoted by proxy in a Greens release this morning about the secondment of existing councils' staff to the Auckland Transitional Agency), I can safely say that no matter how much of a "jobs for the boys" look the MFAT appointment appears to be it's nothing against what will be done for the ATA.

    Is it anywhere online yet?

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: Economics of the Waterview Tunnel,

    Yes it is strange that NZTA have somehow 'magically' found three options $300-700 million cheaper than the cheapest option they have previously explored. Very strange indeed.

    I've writeen a guest post for "The Standard" on this issue: http://www.thestandard.org.nz/joyce-trashes-mt-albert/

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 220 posts Report Reply

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