I decided to run the simulation with the figures produced by Peter Green’s poll aggregator (which uses a generalised additive model(GitHub)), and made assumptions about voter enrolment (3,150,000; slighly below average increase) and turnout (77%; slightly below the average of recent turnout). Just for kicks I set the loop to 100,000 simulations, and ran it once.
This may be an abuse of both models, and an extrapolation too far. However, it speaks to a significantly different narrative than the one being communicated, one which adheres to a reality in which:
“you’ve got to stick with the information that you’re given. And you’ve got to stick with it from month to month and pretend that there is nothing else out there, for the sanctity of that information.
I don’t judge him. A man must have a code, and Gower sticks to his.
But most New Zealanders expect Labour to do something so utterly compellingly stupid before the election that they will fail to win
This is a way to explain it.
I suspect it’s actually more that most New Zealanders have been conditioned by the polls and reportage thereof to believe that National’s victory on the day is assured.
As is this.
It's also possible that A is the cause of B, or B is the cause of A.
Quite happy to help if for any reason things are difficult (95% of the time it's as easy as pie, but sometimes it isn't).
This might be a dumb question, but how does one run this at home? I guess I have to install a language or something?
Go to http://www.r-project.org/ and install R. This is pretty easy, and can be done in about ten to fifteen minutes without specialist knowledge. I'd also go to https://www.rstudio.com/ and install R-Studio, because it makes this work nicer and easier if you're going to do more of it, but it's not at all necessary.
Then it's simply a matter of cutting and pasting the code at https://github.com/thoughtfulbloke/OneVoteTwoVoteRedVoteBlueVote/blob/master/oneVoteTwoVoteRedVoteBlueVote.R into your R session and pressing enter. Because it is the first time you're using it, it will require the installation of packages, but this is fairly automatic. Just choose the Auckland server and they'll install directly.
Interestingly, support for a Labour-led government is extremely high among 2011 Green voters, with 89.4% supporting the prospect. This compares to 93.1% of 2011 Labour voters.
The other figures show that National supporters are very confident of their side winning, Labour and Greens supporters are much less so. Bolstering those perceptions (filtered through the dozen or so people given license to shape their opinions) is essential for the left. Reinforcing the inevitability of a National win is its job.
Interesting. In today’s Horizon Poll, two thirds of New Zealanders expect National to lead a potential coalition government post-election. A plurality of New Zealanders want Labour to lead a coalition government post-election.
"The survey starkly illustrates the difference between perceptions over which party might win and what electors would prefer, Horizon’s Manager, Grant McInman says."
There are a number of ways to explain this discrepancy.
When someone says high, I always want to know how high.
I think that's called poll jumping.
I'm saving these until I can get home and listen to these in all their glory, with crispness and clarity.
Perhaps the format allows the artist more choice. You're not trying to fill a record side, or the back of a CD, so you do whatever works. 60 second songs, 60 minute songs: if it feels good, do it.
Feel free to report to the BSA here
I can see at least one good reason to – to become informed about how things are being reported on one of the more popular platforms.
As someone involved with politics, watching the news gives me next to no information about actual events. In many cases, if I was to take what I was told as true in the way I was told it, I would be less informed.
However, as a medium for understanding *why* New Zealanders think the way they do about a given issue, it is indispensable. The gap between reality and perceptions is otherwise murkier.