Lighthouse Keeper's swim apparently...
I don't think that's correct, it is based on the meshblocks of the children attending the school, that's why they are supplied with the addresses of the children attending as input to the calculation
Any idea what dataset the graph labelled 'the real story' comes from?
The preceeding graph to that more or less concurs with the theory that 2015 is the primary age peak
The ministry no longer builds single sex schools and many of the single sex schools now accept both genders eg Mt Albert Grammar
The original post referred to "mainstream", I assume that excludes St Marys and St Pauls.
There are plenty of unisex (I assume you mean single sex) schools in the CBD etc area, not so many mixed.
Where are these please? Auckland Girls Grammar is the only one I'm aware of.
So by the end of the year, the school will be about 100 students over its capacity.
Yes, but it's not as straightforward as that, how many year 6's leaving in this year's cohort and how many year 1's forecast for next year?
And it's tricky because the Year 0/1 all come on in dribs and drabs through the year and the Year 6's all leave at the end. So they haven't actually been 100 over capacity all year at all, far from it.
Anecdotal I know, but I think it is slowing myself. The next squeeze will be at WSC, that's where the real focus needs to be. IMHO
If anyone want's a bit of light reading, here's the 2010 report commissioned that concluded everything is fine and dandy in the Western Bays
They tried that at Alexander Park? All the locals quashed it because it meant they'd then be out of the Grammar Zone
Without wanting to defend the ministry's poor planning too much, it is a complex problem.
Roll growth does tend to go in cycles as demographics change. I believe the Primary age children in Western Bays area is predicted to peak in 2015. And it wasn't that long ago those primary schools in question had very, very low rolls.
Would it be wise for the ministry make capital investment to increase the capacities of those schools to say 900 when in a few short years the roll may start declining again?. The community needs to consider that it may end up with a giant primary school in the area but few primary age children.
Pt Chev is a special case with the planned intensification of course, no-one really knows what that effect will be and over how long.
This is not a new problem, everyone will remember Pre-fabs at their schools at various times.
There is of course another mechanism to manage the growth and that is the zone. But that would be political suicide to suggest changing the zones of the schools in question.