Posts by Farmer Green
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There are those who believe that “America” may well be the issue :-
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/09/16/isil-another-bogeyman-created-by-us-analyst/It is difficult to know just who is pulling the strings here :-
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-07/joe-biden-apology-tour-hits-saudi-arabia -
Hard News: Terror panics and the war imperative, in reply to BenWilson,
a UN sanctioned and controlled force.
Legitimate ? Really?
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If you have the time this is a good read from the historical perspective.
If you’re short of time , then pages 29-30 should bring you up to speed.It’s always good to know what the time is :-)
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/pdf/the-consequences-of-the-economic-peace
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It strikes me as slightly remiss that there is no talk of environmental impacts surrounding these discussions of increased dairy output.
Maybe the West Island has got this sorted :-)http://www.rabobank.co.nz/Research/Documents/Reports/Report_Dairy-IN_NZ-Sep2014.pdf
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Alfie,
I've thought a lot about it Alfie and I think that at this stage it would be foolish to stick my head any further above the parapet.
I'm always mindful of what happened to some friends who set out to do UHT milk into Asia about 30 years ago.
People travelling to Auckland from Paeroa over the last decades may have wondered at the existence of an empty , but seemingly never-occupied building beside the Waihou River (from memory).
The NZCDC saw to it that not one drop of milk ever entered that factory.
Of course today , every man and his dog is putting in UHT factories to service the Asian market . . . but that's O.K. right? -
Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Greg Dawson,
Remember the huge deteriorating butter mountain that the U.S. would not sell to Russia during the Cold War years?
Remember how the butter was all sold to N.Z. ; converted to anhydrous milk fat and onsold to Russia?They both owe us.
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Chris Waugh,
Tatua also announced today , in a very rare move , that it had enrolled ten new suppliers , all clustered around the factory . Historically Tatua has been a closed shop ; they never took more supply than they wanted.
It would be interesting to know whether the new supply was deserters from Open Country or from Fonterra. I would pick that it was the latter because a shareholding would have to be purchased in order to become a Tatua supplier : not necessary in order to supply Open Country.Still the Tatua payout was a long way from the $16/kg M.S. that good quality Chinese milk can attract.
And a very long way from the $21/ kg. that a very small yoghurt factory in N.Z pays. -
It seems as though Joe Average has a pretty good handle on what is going down.
Her's a comment from NBR :-" We have a lot of headwinds blowing in our direction now with China slowing dramatically (take whatever their official reports say, haircut the positives by 50% and magnify the negatives by 2x and that probably comes close to reality), and given that instead of addressing our major fiscal handicap, extreme household debt, when interest rates were low and we had a window to save, we have instead elected to double down on the housing ponzi market just as the global interest rate cycle begins to trend up after 5 years of central bank rescue financing begins to end.
I don't see any surpluses for at least a decade given the structural issues we face and the way inflation will soon take hold here (on a low NZD) just as growth tails off following the dairy bust. Stagflation anyone?
But then again...Everything is Awesome!"I guess that we're
"pretty relaxed about that". :-) -
Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Ian Dalziel,
That is comprehensive!
Going by past episodes, the effect should hit Auckland about 18 months from now.
But this time , it appears that the malaise will not be as short-lived as the previous episodes. -
Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Ian Dalziel,
debt farming
That part is very interesting.
Does one anticipate a bail-out of the most over-geared dairy conversions by large chunks of urban equity capital, seemingly intent on enjoying the pitiful returns on capital that characterise our agricultural sector?Or , the perfect hedge against a prolonged period of financial instability, . . . and then some?
Gotta better than gold ; they're not making any more land.