Posts by Farmer Green
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Chris Waugh,
Interesting times.
Comment at NBR. Note that a $5.30 payout requires a 30% lift in prices.
"A 30% rebound in commodity prices over the current season and the next season is not going to happen.
Milk supply has increased worldwide.China has negotiated supply agreements directly with European suppliers.
Tariffs on Euro and US dairy imports to China have dropped.
Chinese firms have direct supply arrangements from NZ via Mengnui, Synlait and Oceania Dairy.
US supply is rising on the back of cheap land, cheap feed and low oil cost.
EU goes off cap next year, Irish production is being ramped up.
And China's GDP is dropping like a STONE. China numbers are always dubious and are used as negotiating tools.
Chinese companies develop their strategies in concert with government officials because they are largely funded by central Chinese Govt.Seriously who is doing the strategic analysis in Fonterra?"
Not paywalled - http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/fonterra-slashes-2015-milk-payout-530-kgms-earnings-tumble-76-bd-162890
Sure is interesting Chris.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,
the dirtiest Government I’ve seen in this country.
So far.
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to tussock,
low paid menial shit in the cold
Hey, we’re still doing it :-)
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Paul Campbell,
I agree Paul; Auckland has its own problems, mostly population -based.
Use the power in the South Island. -
Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to ,
Hard to find anything specific to the Waikato.
This won’t have changed much:-
http://agrihq.co.nz/article/no-bonanza-to-debt-laden-farmers
This is more recent:-
https://agrihq.co.nz/article/milk-price-below-6.50-will-hurt?p=119
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to ,
x
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"If it drops to $5.20 then the average farmer is running at a loss, so they would have to cut back on expenditure reasonably significantly just to break even," he said.
"It takes a bit of time for it to flow through, if you like, but at $5.20 at the farm gate you're probably going to see a drop of $800m for the Waikato."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10531091/Dairy-drop-catastrophic
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Sacha,
Naturally. They all saw it coming a couple of years ago and have used the intervening years to adjust debt/ equity lending ratios by requiring principal repayment, so that even if dairy farm prices fall significantly , the banks will still make a full recovery on the mortgagee sale.
To their credit though , they have repeatedly told farmers that it was inevitable that this would happen.
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Sacha,
Yes that would be about right. It’s a fairly major blow to many , especially since many farmers have been “buying production”, in the way of urea and PKE etc..
There are some recent conversions that break even on a cash flow basis at $6.75.ETA ; which of course is sheer stupidity given that the last 10 years average is $6.
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Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Ian Dalziel,
I nearly rang my neighbour a couple of nights ago. I wanted to say :- " for christ's sake let that cow go and nuzzle her calf would you. . . . and give the calf a feed so that they can both shut up".
But that would be VERY un -PC in dairyland.