Posts by Rich Lock

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  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Rich Lock,

    The Specials 'Ghost Town'

    Speaking of protest songs from the 1980's, I've had this earworm running through my head for the last two days:

    On! on! on! cried the leaders at the back
    We went galloping down the blackened hills
    And into the gaping trap
    The bridges are burnt behind us and there's waiting guns ahead
    Into the valley of death rode the brave hundreds

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    At the moment, anyone can buy a car in the UK and import it to a mainland EU country without paperwork.

    BMW build minis in the UK and the Netherlands. In a few years, UK minis will attract a sales tariff in the EU while those from the Netherlands won't. Which country would you choose if you were on the BMW board?

    BMW ain't the only ones. I had a couple of friends from Derby over yesterday. Derby, effectively, has two employers: Rolls-Royce Aerospace, and Toyota. Toyota originally hedged their bets, and set up a plant in Derby, and one in Paris. Guess which one might now relocate? Rolls-Royce is also highly dependent on mutual co-operation with EADS, a European Union company with primarily French, Dutch and German roots.

    Derby is already a post-industrial shithole with extremely high unemployment and a gutted city centre with that semi-permanent 'atmosphere of imminent violence' all too common in the UK, and which my friends only visit if absolutely necessary. The Specials 'Ghost Town' is going to look like 'everything is awesome!' if either of those two start packing up the wagon.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    stoned Womble

    Bravo, sir. Stealing that.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    They haven't really been complete mess-ups but to the extent they have been mess-ups it has been that they overestimate Guardian opinions and underestimate Daily Mail and Telegraph ones.

    I have no idea what you mean by that.

    However, the 2015 general election polling was wrong (completely missing the 'outright majority' that eventuated). The polling in the runup to the referendum was also wrong (giving remain a narow lead, albeit within the margin of error).

    All of this polling was carried out by professional polling companies, who you would have thought knew what they were doing and could add in the appropriate correction factors, esecially since they got a pretty good kicking post-general election.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Russell Brown,

    George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has been silent.

    Concerned nation joins hunt for George Osbourne.

    Today Mr Gove’s wife committed to Facebook the hope that “clever people” might offer to “lend their advice and expertise.”

    Ah, 'clever people'. A distinct difference between them and 'experts', eh, Govey?

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to linger,

    By contrast, there is no one unified cluster of “Leave” voters: i

    You're correct, but there's a mirror image of that as well, where no-one could really outline a coherent case for remain. It was more a case of 'eeeeh, well, we're not racist and we have a few European friends and colleagues, so I guess we'll be voting remain.'

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    Attachment

    That can't really be right can it?

    Obviously a lot more complicated, but here's a very very rough heatmap comparison I half-completed yesterday. Darker colours on the salary side (RH side) indicate higher salaries. It compares reasonably with the 'remain' and 'leave' areas on the left (yellow is remain, blue is leave).

    You're right about the majoirty Labour voting remain, BTW (about 1/3 to 2/3, apparently), but I very strongly suspect that skews heavily towards the liberal metropolitan wing. There's been a lot of chatter about watching the results come in from places like Sunderland early, and realising even then that it was all going tits up when the traditional labour heartland areas were adrift of predictions by 20-odd percentage points.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    Labour voters voting Remain

    Apart from the majority that didn't, you mean? Where are you getting your figures?

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit,

    It's very simple, as pointed out by someone John Harris* talked to post-result: "If you've got money, you vote in ... if you haven't got money, you vote out"

    The breakdown of results (scroll about halfway down the page) bears this out: Got a degree? You probably voted in. ABC1? You probably voted in. No formal qualifications? You probably voted out.

    There's no starker illustration of the disconnect between those in power and those on the outside than the fact the referendum was called in the first place. A mere formality with an absolute sure thing result, intended for one thing and one thing only - to silence the rabid right-wing of the tory party - has turned into the biggest shitstorm since...Suez? WW2? The 'invisible' masses, overlooked, ignored, condescended to and used as a punchline for decades, finally got a chance to make their voices heard. Thanks for that, pigfucker. What exactly did you think was going to happen?

    *John Harris is one of the very few journalists woth reading any more, mostly due to the fact he actually spends time outside London talking to normal people, which makes him more or less unique these days.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Hate and guns, in reply to Russell Brown,

    One thing this is not looking like is a man actually directed by ISIS, or a part of a conspiracy.

    Yes, but......even if not actively directed, still involved enough to pop up on the FBI's radar as someone who needed to be interviewed twice. A toxic mix of self-hate and self-radicalisation, would be my guess.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2572 posts Report Reply

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