Posts by Jason Kemp
Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 Older→ First
-
-
Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow, in reply to simon g,
Sure but Enrolment numbers "3,229,421 eligible voters now on the roll but there are still 340,409 eligible voters who are not enrolled to vote.
“If you haven’t enrolled yet, you can’t leave it any longer. You must get an enrolment form, fill it in and get it back to us by the end of Friday 22 September,” says Ms Wright."
It seems like that 34k number might have dropped a little bit.
-
Apparently latest advance vote numbers are out so it looks like the early (advance) vote may well be 30% or so. Part of this is because more polling booths 485 compared to 295 in 2014 election.
Source for Stats is Daily voting stats for future reference. But only 2 days to go for early voting.
-
Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow, in reply to Russell Brown,
"hardly ever about people"
Ironically Both Key and Ardern show what can happen if you are a nice person or in the case of Key very media / people friendly.
-
I wonder how much having 600,000+ early votes may have counter balanced some of the late swings. I expect the real gap to close as the election approaches but I do think this is the first time extended early voting has been used to this extent.
Elections notes that out of 3.2m potential voters as at 21st September there are still 320k not enrolled. Actual votes on the day are usually lower but conservatively perhaps 25% of votes may have been cast already?
RNZ Nearly half a million NZers have cast their vote on the 18th and notes daily tallies so by today 21st – I’d guess we can at least match the 700k of early votes from 2014 but I think overall turnout will be higher.
My calculations 80% turnout of 3.2m is 2.56. We don’t know the actual number of early voters before the election but in"2014, 717,579 people voted early.”
Good points about TOP. They need to have the “don’t be a dick” rule as their first rule. I had hoped some of their policies might be picked up by other parties but the personality of Morgan has obliterated any beneficial contributions they might have had.
All of the people complaining about the Jacinda effect seem to have forgotten about the John Key effect. I’m pretty sure Key carried 10-15% of the total vote personally and got many swinging voters across the line. The effect might be slightly higher with Jacinda because Labour has been artificially low after years of “no hopism” and in fighting.
I hope overall vote numbers are up because the trend in recent times has been quite low – but this time there is a fighting chance to change the government.
Update: Just found out that Early voting reached 674,000 on 20th September. Voters mark Suffrage Day with record turnout so my calculations at the top of the comment will be on the low side.
-
I wonder if the most useful flow on effect of polling is to get people off the couch. Last time for example lots of people simply didn't vote as they didn't think it would make a difference. Now that polling increasingly says "it is very close" perhaps more people will vote?
-
Was that National ATM slogan out before or after the $10b promise of new roads ? Have we all got so skeptical / cynical that election bribes from the main parties is even seen as a strategy at all. Come on sheeple :)
I won’t be watching any election stuff since I still don’t watch MSM TV. The only election signs I see are at the local park and I block them out the same as I do any ads online.
Social media does amplify things but mute buttons work too and it is easy to filter out most of this.
Despite all the *noise* around the election so far the Metiria story seems like it has the most cut through. I understand why she stepped down but in my view that was a rare moment of truth and we need more of those.
-
Here is a some recent research on the topic
"A study of more than half a million tweets, recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that morally outraged tweets tend to be widely retweeted within their political spheres—but rarely escape their bubbles."
From One graph shows how morally outraged tweets stay within their political bubble
"Although there’s some interaction between the two clusters, red and blue largely remain separate. Even the most moral or emotional words, it seems, aren’t powerful enough to prompt a retweet from across the aisle."
-
Thanks to you Russell for taking the time to wade through to find the useful content here. Hopefully more of this will get decoded before the election.
I heard the RNZ interview on Sunday that seemed very hopeful that change is now possible. Professors Ann Fordham and Fiona Measham
"They tell Wallace what needs to change and why Portugal is a role model. "
Also in other news I recently watched the Ken Burns documentary on Prohibition. It made the point that during prohibition it was easier to get a drink than before then and even more fascinating that the whole prohibition so influenced a generation in their attitudes to the law and the whole social dynamic. Not a perfect parallel but close enough to repay some attention by policy makers and anyone interested in law reform.
-
Hard News: Barclay and arrogance, in reply to Katharine Moody,
Lets hope some of that comes out in public :)
