One of the tricky things with the dependence vs independence is the reserve population of not voting, and the movements between the voting and non-voting.
Peter, I accidentally left my font on the free internet available "lovedbytheking" font so when I started making the diagram in Inkscape it was the first font it began using.
for those that know their R well enough to be comfortable with ggplot, there is a xkcd package for making you graphs look like hand drawn xkcd ones. the font installation instructions are a little out of date though.
Ben, while Winston deciding is an outcome, it is not a government, so if you were trying to work out the government, I think it would look more like this.
Which under the Colmar results put national anywhere between just under 47 and just under 100 depending on how Winston breaks.
It is a probability that can shift pretty easy if the sides equalise though, as they did in the Roy Morgan
The text is on the graph as part of the image- in the latest update on
it is the barplot with the setting main="" adding the text above the graph, the setting sub="" adding text below the graph
I actually did some making graphs in R examples for something else a few weeks ago (though it didn't include main and sub) over here
Incidentally, for anyone think "I should learn R" it is one of the major languages used in free online courses about data, for instance at Coursera (the Massive Open Online Courses site). Generally you would need 8 to 10 hours a week for a lot of the courses (slightly more if you haven't done this style of course before and are out of practice with learning)
The John Hopkins ones all use R (though the Toolbox one covers things like sharing code on Github) and have a Learn for Free button. They also are intended to run every month, so one wouldn't have to join the intake for the R Programming course starting tomorrow for example.
I ask because “Winston decides” surely includes an unknown chance of Labour led government?
It is either a Labour or National Government- it is defined by the difference between the two blocks (sans Winston) is not greater than the seats NZF have. It makes no judgement about what Winton would do- he could go with National or Labour or allow a minority Government. So yes, that percentage does include a Labour led government with NZF support (it just makes no judgement as to how likely that is within the 53%).
Good things for National, but you are starting to make what I would call a big assumption that they can gift the Conservatives a seat and not lose any significant support over doing so. I would imagine this is a topic of conversation in National strategic circles though.
Just to note that I’m very keen to host and promote anything that emerges from these exercises
Well, we can probably get it making pretty graphs of the result for inclusion in posts about election things. Beyond that I can't think of much as it is really just reinterpreting the figures collected by the polling agencies (though will keep that in mind).
how does one run this at home
You do indeed need to install something- the language R, from
Where in theory you could open this as a source file and run it. However if dead keen to give it a go, your life would probably be much easier if after installing R you install RStudio as well
Because then it is a little more obvious that if you use the File menu and Open the OneVoteTwoVoteRedVoteBlueVote.R file, you get a source button in the top right of the window with the script in it (the window with the script is the upper left one) and can run the script by clicking the script button.
(On the other hand, George might have pretty much covered this one while I was writing my response)
I was actually adding some code for loading gtools while you were writing that :)