Posts by Danyl Mclauchlan

  • Hard News: What you lookin' at?,

    I had Netflix and liked it until it mysteriously stopped working on my smart TV and their support guys couldn't fix it so I was forced to cancel my subscription. Also, I liked the first couple episodes of 11.22.63; more than I liked King's book.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Poll Soup,

    Mainly because Labour has many fewer non-voters despising it than National has. Excluding the Don't Knows and Didn't Answers, the median Labour liking is 6 while the median National liking is 5.

    Just checked this and you're right. Thanks. It does still, I think, point to the complexity of the 'missing million' as a panacea for the left.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Poll Soup,

    Attachment

    Sorry for late reply to questions about 'the missing million'. Here's the 2011 NZES data on non-voters and how they responded to the question about whether they liked the National Party. They like Labour/the Greens quite a lot less.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Poll Soup,

    Does the one-in-twelve equation factor in the missing million? Between them, Labour and the Greens failed to inspire their marginal constituents.

    The bad news: about half the missing million are probably National-leaning voters.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Protesting too much: responses…,

    Labour’s ability to deliver a bold social programme relies on broad public acceptance of Labour’s credibility on the economy, on personal security, and so on.

    'Personal security'? Sounds like it'll be a fun day on twitter when that policy comes out.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Public Address Word of the…,

    Twitsplaining: verb. informal. Mode of discourse in online debate deploying a combination of neologisms, portmanteaus, animated gifs, insults and exasperated complaints about how stupid everyone else is to try and win people to your point-of-view

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Up Front: How I Learned to Stop Worrying…,

    If you argue that women should be quota-ed into parliament on the basis of their communication skills and empathy, then you're suggesting a meritocracy, rather than a quota to balance representation of viewpoints.

    I too am worried that I might not become a Cabinet Minister because some grasping women who is more qualified than I am displaces me.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Up Front: How I Learned to Stop Worrying…,

    Would there be a men’s quota as well as a women’s quota?

    The way the Green Party does it is that you can't go over a maximum of 60% for either gender.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Meet the middle,

    But, even with that qualifier, the actual swing voters hiding among the "Im a centrists" are the ones who eventually decide the election, so it's probably better to take them seriously.

    I just think the best way to win these people is to 'be good at politics' rather than make all sorts of policy and value compromises that these voters almost certainly do not care about.

    In the UK context, Labour Party centrists attacking Jeremy Corbyn as a radical communist are being terrible at politics. He's going to be the next leader and screaming that the de facto leader is unelectable is just stupid. You notice how disaffected National factions DIDN'T do that with Don Brash?

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

  • Polity: Meet the middle,

    A couple of quick observations.

    1. Being a centrist is about marketing as much as anything else. Don Brash is the most radical, ideological party-leader we've ever had in New Zealand (with the arguable exception of Hone Harawira) yet he branded himself as 'mainstream' and came incredibly close to winning a general election.

    2. I think there's often a gap between what people are thinking when they identify themselves as 'centrist' ie 'I am a moderate and sensible person', and what politicians and political analysts hear, ie 'I am available to your party.' A teacher who is a delegate for the PPTA and who has voted Labour their entire life or a farmer who has voted National for their entire life are just as likely to self-identify as 'centrists' as people who are actually swing-voters.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 922 posts Report Reply

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