Hard News: Prospects
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Wankers
Which ones? Neither side was acting appropriately..
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Roy Morgan poll's out!!
Labour 34.5
National 42
NZ First 4.5
Green 10
United Future 1
Maori Party 2.5
ACT 4
Other 1.5So, in pure % terms, that's 46 for Nat+ACT, 44.5 for Lab+Green. Either would need Maori Party support to form a govt, with NZF as a potential wildcard if they grab an electorate or another .5%. Can anyone more realsistically break it down to seats?
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Sorry, that was a bit slow!
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Not sure of the Science but it is said that Labour Governments have introduced change especially including social policies but National Governments seldom do.
Social change almost invariably comes from Labour (or similar) governments. 40-hour working week, welfare state, homosexual law reform, abolition of the death penalty (for treason, and for everything else), civil unions, etc. Not a one of these fundamental changes to our social fabric came under National. Hell, there are still MPs in the House who voted against the Death Penalty Repeal Bill in 1989, and the Homosexual Law Reform Bill in 1986, while members of the National Party.
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From the newspaper headlines we will never see
Peter Davis unrelentingly honest and selfless- Nats
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Paul, I have no idea what you are saying, however I do believe that NZ's debt will be very destructive to the social cohesion of NZ. That's what pisses me off about Labour the most. For all their progression, they've glossed over and failed to contain what has been a glaringly obvious problem for years (for those who were actually bothered to look at it or admit it). David Skilling should be mentioned for trying to make it an issue, but NZers don't seem to want to see it or admit it.
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wankers
Quite. Who are these people?
Which side?
The Nats were an assortment of greys, hyped up on the scent of imminent victory. The Labour people were students and union people, organised at the last minute by cellphone, and excited by the thought of ruining Key's photo op. There was also a pair from Both Eyes Open, which is how I know this stuff ;)
The guy with the megaphone was being a dick, or at least had no imagination with his slogans. The National people who were trying to get in his face and take it off him were being bigger dicks. Speech you don't like is part and parcel of democracy, and you just have to put up with it. Sadly, many of the National people seemed to have real problems with that concept.
I prefer to protest politely. But its interesting that National's crowd wouldn't even tolerate that. The police, OTOH, had no problem with it.
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That's what pisses me off about Labour the most. For all their progression, they've glossed over and failed to contain what has been a glaringly obvious problem for years
Damned if they do, damned if they don't. You're complaining that they did "nothing", but if they'd done things in keeping with the allegations that fly from the fingers of Farrar and Slater you'd probably be bitching just as loudly that they're nanny-statists, interfering in the free choice of the population to spend its non-money as it sees fit. And even if not you, many, many others.
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Personally, I'm still trying to understand why we even have electorates in this day and age.
Electorate MPs often do important work. While many electorates will also have a list MP's office in their electorate, they're not the same. It guarantees you local representation, and makes it more likely that they will be more responsive to local needs.
My view of MMP is that we have an electorate system which uses the list MPs to bring proportionality to parliament. Not that we have a proportional system which happens to have electorate MPs left over from our old system.
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By my calculation (well the Stuff virtual election calculator) the Roy Morgan poll gives Labour, Progressives, Greens 57 seats and Act, National, United Future 59. If we assume the Maori Party gets 5 seats then they will determine who leads the next government.
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OK Matthew, so we reduce it down to a pissing match between red and blue. Just another example of how NZ is content to wallow in ignorant bliss until the shit hits the proverbial.
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I do believe that NZ's debt will be very destructive to the social cohesion of NZ. That's what pisses me off about Labour the most. For all their progression, they've glossed over and failed to contain what has been a glaringly obvious problem for years.
Bryan Gould's Rescuing the New Zealand Economy has quite a bit to say about this. There's so much wrong with the monetarist consensus that both main parties have shared for the past 25 years. And virtually none of it gets discussed in public fora. Blaming the appalling state of the newsmedia is one thing, but of course it raises the question: what the hell do we do about it?
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I have only one thing to say. If you don't vote Labour, you're stupid, if you vote National, you're stupider and if you vote ACT then you're stupiderer. init?
Mr Barnes: Guess which finger I've got rigidly extended at this very moment? But it is a wonderful attitude for reality-based folks who want to win votes.
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You're complaining that they did "nothing", but if they'd done things in keeping with the allegations that fly from the fingers of Farrar and Slater you'd probably be bitching just as loudly that they're nanny-statists, interfering in the free choice of the population to spend its non-money as it sees fit. And even if not you, many, many others.
Well, let's be honest here. Pretty much the entire discourse - on both sides of the fence - is dominated by wingnuts. Nothing much makes a whole lot of sense, especially when distilled into soundbites and photo-ops. Is it any wonder we have a campaign based on personality? All people are left with is their gut instinct.
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The reaction of the Epsom candidates to my feedback when they were cavorting on the Orakei roundabout this week (at different times) was interesting.
I shouted to the ACT guys that "I would never, ever vote ACT" - Rodney yelled back that I was being childish. (He was the grown man in fancy-dress!)
Whereas when I shouted to Richard Worth to vote Labour - he just gave a big chortle and a big NOOO!!!
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Craig regarding your extended middle finger and reaction to "Kat's" hyperbolic discourse about a stupid country deserving a right-wing government: don't be too precious, there must be a hundred comments a day to this effect directed against Labour between KB and Your Views.
Its tiresome, unhelpful and exaggerated - but it's been the stock and trade of NZ rightwing discourse online for years.
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Jim - re debt I agree that it's a disaster for us, but you're laying it at Labour's feet?
National will take certainly us even further the wrong way on that by handing out tax for consumption, and funding it by slashing at savings. So you've got both major groups largely ignoring it, but National is the one that is actively going to make it worse...
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Bryan Gould's Rescuing the New Zealand Economy has quite a bit to say about this.
What's his suggestion?
Most of the joint inflation/growth mandates given to central banks (e.g. in the US) use employment as the growth figure for measurement. If we'd adopted a similar approach here we would have seen no change in the moves from the Reserve Bank as we've had record employment - there's been no need to cut interest rates to stimulate "growth" (as measured by employment) -
Gareth,
No, I'm not laying it at their feet. What am I trying to point out is that for all their vision and tinkering, they were unable to do anything about it. But did they ever have the intention to? I don't know because it was never openly debated in the public domain or talked bout with any gravity.
As for National making it worse, I don't really think it can get any worse.
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They mean to DNA test innocent people for the police database
Cool.
Not to hard to arrange for most of parliament to be charged with something a bit vague, but carrying a prison sentence. Tax evasion perhaps.
That should sort out such piffle. Anyone fancy joining me to start a private-prosecution fund?
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Ok Here's my prediction.
NZ First will make 5%+ Winston will get Tauranga
Greens will be around 13%
Labour will get 38%
Act will not get a seat
National will get 40%
Maori will go with Labour
Progressives will retain Wigram
Labour forms the next Govt.
We all get a Pony. :-) -
Steve, you're a gem.
Except you missed this: if you don't vote Green, you're stoopiderist of all, because they can do everything all the other parties do, only fairer and in a way that ensures there'll be more of it to go round in the future.
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I'm with you that someone (of whatever political ilk) needs to stand up and say "our current account deficit and international debt is appalling and we need to do something serious to fix it up".
Labour have not done a good job on it at all, although I think it's fair to say both Kiwisaver and the SuperFund will directly reduce private debt in the longer-run.
You talk about Skilling et al - if you read their papers they are all very very much in favour of compulsory savings as a vehicle to improve our savings and our subsequent debt position - i.e. Kiwisaver.
A short-term debt-reducing policy of Nationals will be the legislated overweighting in NZ of the SuperFund I suppose - but it has longer-term growth implications and distortion impacts that I don't like. -
Greens will be around 13%
That puts me in parliament.
I guess I owe you a beer, then !
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I guess I owe you a beer, then !
Is that the Green's version of KFC ? ;-)
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