Hard News: Slumpy Cashflow
214 Responses
First ←Older Page 1 … 4 5 6 7 8 9 Newer→ Last
-
Okay, you have three weeks to front up. After that, harvest is over.
-
Oh ... I also have some spare bottles of absinthe if anyone's interested.
-
"Can someone in the media ALERT THE PUBLIC to the latest attempt by Colonial Capital Corporation Ltd a.k.a. David Tweed to convince kiwi investors to part with their shares for MUCH less than market value."
that should be front page news.that's fucking mental.
"Not a silly idea. The marinas only own a right to the posts so as long as you don't tie up to the post its free to drop anchor in the marina."
Put your babies on a boat man, I find them hard enough looking after them on land and i have lot's of help.. I can't see it as the ideal family home.
-
Hey Geoff , are you the same guy who used to be at Otago Uni - I used to enjoy your lectures ... if you are?
'fraid not. I have only put in an occasional appearance at Otago.
(even though I don't want to turn this blog into Trade and Exchange)....
If any one is passing through Hamilton East in the next two weeks and wants to travel on with a bag of feijoas, just bung me a message at lealand@waikato.ac.nz (but not between April 14-24 as I will be in Japan) -
What do you all think? Are people just spooked, or are there really hard times ahead?
Well, seeing as you asked ...
I think there is a serious problem with, not just confidence, but investment and credit. That'll rattle around the system for a while (watch for the flow on effect to commercial property, apartment development and business startups), but is fundamentally short term. The underlying factors are good, so things should come right, but maybe not for 18 months.
The housing thing is really interesting. As the overcrowding issue shows, it is fundamentally a supply side problem. Regulation restricts supply and increases costs. The RMA, OSH, Building Act local government red tape, all have a direct flow on effect to new house prices, and thus indirectly to old house prices. It ain't going to change.
Also, with housing, it is slumping because (1) there is a loss of global confidence and (2) the government has turned off the immigration tap. That last one is really interesting! I reckon the government now uses immigration like the OCR - as a macroeconomic lever, but without the consideration and control that goes into the reserve bank. That's pretty scary.
So I think we'll get a return of global confidence, tax cuts, the immigration tap turned back on - all in 2009, and we'll be back into a boom; probably an over-correction due to the kneejerk nature of macroeconomic immigration decisions.
(But all IMHO - your mileage may vary, seek independent investment advice, and sell me your children by return post)
-
Anybody grow trees?
I've got coupla hundred nikau's potted up, grow native grasses like, well, it's grass (take a few sead heads from a plant or two and chuck them in a tray of seed raising mix and you should get 50 plants plus in no time, I just potted up 75 and there's about 20 more and that's just from one seed tray, they are big enought to plant out in about a year), have just managed to get a coupla dozen whau to germinate, am trying on some flax at the moment and have several Kauri and Titoki growing.
can't eat em but they look nice.
anybody wanna buy some carbon credits off me? ;)
-
(But all IMHO - your mileage may vary, seek independent investment advice, and sell me your children by return post)
Couriered or in a small envelope with a 45 cent stamp (she should fit)?
I want her back though when she gets to working age (what age are children big enough to get their hands into the kitchen sink and push a lawnmower?).
-
I think there is a serious problem with, not just confidence, but investment and credit. That'll rattle around the system for a while (watch for the flow on effect to commercial property, apartment development and business startups), but is fundamentally short term. The underlying factors are good, so things should come right, but maybe not for 18 months.
How do guess 18 months? How do you know how long it takes?
-
(even though I don't want to turn this blog into Trade and Exchange)....
If any one is passing through Hamilton East in the next two weeks and wants to travel on with a bag of feijoas, just bung me a messageGeoff, as it happens, yes I will be travelling past Hamilton East with feijoas in the next couple of weeks. I am trading with my uncle for honey while at a work-related conference.
You can reach me at my name with dot in middle at gmail.
-
Yamis: Sounds cute. NZPost Courier please.
Jeremy: Ummm. Informed guess. Assuming we're not heading for a massive international crash (which I don't think we are). Partly it's a calculation about when tax cuts will be implemented and the immigration lever turned back on. That's a political timing thing. Partly it's a calculation about when lenders stop getting spooked. They are plenty spooked at the monent, but those Chinese, those Belgian Dentists, those Aussie Super funds, that Kiwisaver, that Cullen Fund - they've got to get the money out somewhere, somehow. It'll start coming back, credit will improve, and happy days will be here again. :-) As others observed, it's not like the fundamentals are bad.
-
"Partly it's a calculation about when lenders stop getting spooked. "
Thanks malcolm.
That's the guys I get pissed off at, lenders and the way they get the spooks all the time .We know the market likes a good crash now and then and we ask them basically to pick it for us ; and they fail everytime.I wish I could tell my customers I've got the spooks after I totally fucked up but I don't think I've ever misread a market that badly.. Their industry screws up and we all feel it.Doesn't make sense?
-
The marinas only own a right to the posts so as long as you don't tie up to the post its free to drop anchor in the marina.
You can't anchor in any marina that's in a port, it's against the law. The marina authority will get you to move your boat, and if you don't, it'll be moved for you, and possibly confiscated.
And other boaties in the marina will also take matters into their own hands if you're blocking their access in and out. You might suddenly find your boat anchored near some rocks without a stern line.
-
Their industry screws up and we all feel it.Doesn't make sense?
Ah, I think it's just human nature. Human nature combined with the natural incompetence that arises from people trying to hit their quarterly targets at any costs. Terrible system. Don't know of a better one.
-
Terrible system. Don't know of a better one.
Someone would.It's just the banking system. Its not the real work.
it's admin.It's just the movement of money, vatican like in it's invinciibilty as a system but as rationally corrupt '
-
Yes, I think there will be a better system one day. But I don't think we can design it. We can only evolve towards it, as we learn from the accumulated excesses of the accumulated crises.
-
"as we learn from the accumulated excesses of the accumulated crises."
Wasn't that a Judas Preist lyric? but seriously we should design it, we're pretty good designers.
-
I note in the Herald article:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10500398Investor 'Big Sam of Maketu' lost $532k he had *borrowed on his mortgage* his house had previously been unmortgaged and he doesn't now how he will afford to service his new mortgage.
Sorry, no sympathy, for private people to borrow to invest is just mad. Greed is not good.
-
We might be good designers, but we're even better cheaters.
-
We might be good designers, but we're even better cheaters.
"We're terrible cheaters. Ya know the macbeth thing, it fucks with us."
-
"Sorry, no sympathy, for private people to borrow to invest is just mad. Greed is not good."
The risk was hidden, he's probably saving for his retirement and his family and every financial advisor in New Zealand tells him he needs investments.. You got to have some sympathies surely. 66 and that happens.
-
I would also add that a herb garden is a minimum. Ours is in a large wooden planter box I made and is wonderful. In season of course. If you plant mint, but it in a plastic pot and sink the pot in the herb garden leaving 1cm or so of rim above the earth. Mint spreads like crazy if you let it.
I second that tarragon is dead easy to grow, though remember where it is if you are digging in the winter as it dies back. I'm also surprised nobody has mentioned the wonderful wild thyme that grows on the hills above Alexandra. When we were in Dunedin we brought a plant back and put it in next to one I had grown from seed. Over a season or two the Alex plant gradually greened up and looked like the resident, also the taste leavened out. Another thing about herbs, they thrive on neglect.
-
There's a lot more to the housing affordability issue than just bureaucracy. Too much bureaucracy can be counter-productive, but on the other extreme we've had the leaky homes debacle and Cave Creek. Cut red tape where possible, but not if the end result is an American-style litigation industry.
Complicating things even more is Joe & Jane Kiwi's addiction to property for investment income, thanks in no small part to Fay Richwhite and their hangers-on destroying public faith in the sharemarket. And before anyone mentions unbundling, Telecom didn't earn its way to monopoly status.
And what's been glaringly overlooked in the housing debate is infill and high-density living. There are no shortage of lessons to be learnt from the low-grade shoeboxes blighting downtown Auckland (and the tower blocks of 1960s Britain). But not all of us want to live in a pseudo-lifestyle block, myself included. All the more so if or when petrol prices breach post-Khomeini levels.
-
Che, got any feijoa jam recipes?
nope. i could ask 2nd chef's mum though.
-
And what's been glaringly overlooked in the housing debate is infill and high-density living.
as i said yesterday, kiwis and their sense of entitlement.
everyone "deserves" to live on a quarter acre. i'm not sure how doing nothing but going to school, then going to work, makes you "deserving" of a huge house in the suburbs...
what's needed is leadership on urban design, and less bullshit equivocating.
-
"as i said yesterday, kiwis and their sense of entitlement."
So which democratic country doesn't practise some sort of aspiration? and space is good for us cavemen.
Surely logistics is the real debate not our natural aspirations for comfort.Feel entitled to a happy life che, on me.
Post your response…
This topic is closed.