Hard News: Something odd and unresolved
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Craig, I'm not that interested in "hard-hitting" given the lack of journalistic talent and resourcing to guarantee it's done well.
For me, it's the contrast between "unauthorised" and the ass-licking yawnfest they've produced. If I want that I'll read Women's Day. The most favourable interpretation is taken everywhere except that passage I quoted. Even that has the same naive breathless tone I'd expect from a junior reporter, and it diminishes my trust in the content all the more. Don't worry, I'm with you on that.
The actual beliefs and plans of someone putting themselves forward as Prime Minister seem highly relevant - and that is what the Herald's hagiography promised. I know people's positions shift over time, but their underlying beliefs about what's right and wrong are a useful guide when voters are deciding whether to hand over power to someone they know little about. Especially when he's surrounded by the same dodgy characters that were shown last election to have said one thing while sneakily planning another. You can argue with that however you like, Craig, but it does explain the heightened suspicion about whether Key and co are genuine this time around. Refusing to answer questions about Crosby Textor do not help that perception.
And Jeremy, you seem to be making wild assumptions that kiwiblog fringe = kiwiblog associates = national members = craig. You can do better, I'm sure, but free speech means you can expect sloppy thinking to be challenged. Enjoy.
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Thanks, Sofie. There's a quote from Helen Clark in that story which captures what I was saying quite well:
"It comes back to the point - we do not know what this man stands for, if anything, except desperation to win an election. I don't think he can be taken seriously."
I can understand her taking that position, and if Key is really the decent guy he seems then why aren't National simply letting him be himself? Is he getting poor advice?
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I can understand her taking that position, and if Key is really the decent guy he seems then why aren't National simply letting him be himself? Is he getting poor advice?
It's only poor advice if it doesn't work.
I'd guess that National knows that head to head with Helen Clark, John Key doesn't have it. He's not a idiot, but she's got a couple of decades of experience in this field, and she's been fending off the opposition with mostly good success for 9 years now. Same goes for Michael Cullen, he'd eat Key up.
The less of Key (the person, and the party leader) that comes out for public debate, the less opportunities it opens up for Labour to attack what is a National Party weakness - head to head battle between the leaders.
And given the state of the polls etc, National are going to walk in, the only question is how many smaller parties they need to help them (0 or 1 at this stage).
The media are building up this big crescendo of "who is John Key what does he really believe, man he's slippery", National will release a heap of policy and Key will be all around the country during the campaign, and it won't be a story come election day. Most voters will be able to happily say that they feel that they know John Key, and that they've heard a bunch of national party policy when they walk into the polls.
I suspect National have a plan to win the election and they're beating Labour at the game at present by not playing it.
I'd say that Labour is the one getting terrible advice. They're not thinking outside the square, or there's nothing outside the square for them.
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Kyle, I agree - although both parties have been implementing their plans for a long time now. National clearly intends not giving voters anything to disagree with yet, which as you say will be judged smart if it works. Labour so far seems to be about resisting that lack of substance (now has traction with media) and pushing the idea that there's a hidden agenda.
Empty vanity pieces like the Herald's therefore might not benefit either party much. However, I think Russell summed up the tone of the story beautifully on another thread: "Why Is John Key So Freaking Amazing?"
Personally, I've always been more concerned by the frontbench fossils and backroom agents surrounding Key than by the smiling assassin himself.
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Actually, just noticed your comment about Cullen eating Key up. That's sure not how I remember the last election campaign.
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Labour so far seems to be about resisting that lack of substance (now has traction with media) and pushing the idea that there's a hidden agenda.
I just don't get what Labour is thinking. It looks like a fine strategy for now, but ten weeks from now, when Key is out and about and on TV every day and shaking hands and all the policy is released, it's going to be dead as a story.
All they're doing is building up anticipation for National's policy releases. Every thing National releases people are going to go "oh finally, some policy" and then they'll look at it even more. It's free publicity for everything National releases.
Come election it'll all be "see we told you we're going to release policy, there it is, no hidden agenda here, here's our Leader, you've all seen him, blah blah blah".
Unless Labour are thinking about 2011, I struggle to see how they're not just handing seats to National on a plate.
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"And Jeremy, you seem to be making wild assumptions that kiwiblog fringe = kiwiblog associates = national members = craig. You can do better, I'm sure, but free speech means you can expect sloppy thinking to be challenged. Enjoy."
Well that's a pretty sloppy summation of my posts there bud...i like it though..wild...sounds cool.
however "kiwiblog associates = national members = craig" is a fact confirmed by the big man himself and a mere association is nothing to be ashamed of so even if i had made such a "wild (?)" association who cares, what's the problem?
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"Unless Labour are thinking about 2011, I struggle to see how they're not just handing seats to National on a plate."
It's still a 5% ballgame. Labour can and have won elections on 40% of the vote.
It's tight and they're are polling mysteries in Auckland.
Just how much is that South Auckland electorate being polled? They had an amazing turn out for Labour last election, there's a lot of party votes in that region and when they block vote it's pretty powerful. It argueably won labour the election in 2005. -
It's still a 5% ballgame. Labour can and have won elections on 40% of the vote
Well barring disaster, I think the election is already over. It'll get closer, but not close.
But that doesn't change the mystery over the strategy.
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With impeccable timing, Steven Joyce de-lurks:
Controversial figure gets top Nats list spot
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4634192a6160.htmlHis nomination is likely to go down poorly with some in National's caucus, who believe he remains tainted from his association with the Brethren and Brash and disagreed with his controversial campaigning methods during the 2005 election.
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"Well barring disaster, I think the election is already over. It'll get closer, but not close."
I think peter dunne will say nice things to the worm again and become prime minister. It's not about you Kyle it's all about the worm.
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His nomination is likely to go down poorly with some in National's caucus, who believe he remains tainted from his association with the Brethren and Brash and disagreed with his controversial campaigning methods during the 2005 election.
I'm surprised by this; if Key wanted to stick with his "I'm my own man" routine, he should be avoiding relics (and tactics) of the former leadership. It does give breath to the 'same old, same old' narrative.
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I'm surprised by this; if Key wanted to stick with his "I'm my own man" routine, he should be avoiding relics (and tactics) of the former leadership. I
Just poppin' in, How does Key have a "I'm my own man" thing goin' on? He replaced English/replaced/Brash/ English/Shipley/Bolger etc, What I notice is how significant finance is,Where is that coming from and if there be a full honest(I always find hard to grasp) disclosure, how murkyare these waters? I feel I talk to a bunch of thick shits sometime (PAS excluded) they spout alot and say very little (probably many an impression of me) but I do know I try to figure the big picture, not just blindly sing along"We luv jon Key OT.".
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Just poppin' in, How does Key have a "I'm my own man" thing goin' on?
Key's response to the questioning on his use of Crosby Textor was to claim that he was his own man and, as leader, set the direction of policy etc and wasn't been told what to do by a bunch of spin-miesters.
To an extent, all/every leader would say the same; what else is leadership? But, in Key's case, there's a legitimate question about what he really stands for. Though it mightn't be the most important issue for everyone, I still find it totally bizarre that he doesn't remember whether he was pro-tour or not?
My point is that, if he is to be believed in his claims to be in charge, what the hell was he thinking in placing Joyce so high on the list?
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From the chill-swept outposts of the Wet Coast - Steve Joyce's positioning says to me, Same old, same old, same *old*-
National isnt offering *anything* visionary/new/hopeful/inclusive.
Just a tired old rich-bastards-club- -
Islander, it will come as no surprise that Helen Clark agrees with your assessment:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10523949On the other hand, Herald columnist John Roughan has wood (and that's before the second part of the biography ran):
Shrewd Key must follow his instincts
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/466/story.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10523529&pnum=0... I felt something close to excitement at the idea of a forex trader running the country.
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Very interesting Sacha, and thanks for the links...
Key as a forex trader is one thing: from experience, he probably does have really good instincts there. (There is, however, that quality - luck.)
Key as a politician, running a team, juggling very complex social scenarios as well as economic ones, is another matter altogether. -
Just a tired old rich-bastards-club-
That's all I get too,and I suspect that they are very good at making money, however I am not a business, I am people!(at least part thereof) I don't wanna know what this guy John shits. I wanna know substance from Nats policy.I wanna see the candidates have some knowledge of their freakin' job!Steven Joyce just says money to me.Why not just admit what he is good for?If it's makin' money, let's see some number calculations, I got a calculator.
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I think peter dunne will say nice things to the worm again and become prime minister. It's not about you Kyle it's all about the worm.
I think the worm was killed off after the 2002 election. The TV station rightly decided that their stupid graphical response meter shouldn't decide the outcome of elections.
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The TV station rightly decided that their stupid graphical response meter shouldn't decide the outcome of elections.
Hmmm, it was still running here in Australia last year... got figure.
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The worm was used in 2005. Here's Diana Wichtel's take:
http://www.listener.co.nz/issue/3407/tvradio/4558/election_watch_tv3s_leaders_debate.html
I think the election is already over
That's not true at all, Kyle. Even if Key is the clear favourite to be PM (and currently he is) that's just the headline horse race. There's a huge difference between, say, a National-ACT majority for legislation, and a hybrid government in which Key presides over policies approved by Winston and/or the Maori Party.
National "won" in 1996. They haven't recovered yet.
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Paul, maybe them Aussies need more help decidin.
Islander, I get the impression from what I've read about him so far that Key would have to be good at running a team.
I'll be interested to see what the "visionary" pitch is when the Nats finally say what they plan to do - something "ambitious" I'm told. That goes for Labour too, presuming they have something ready. And I agree with Simon's points. The winning threshold is not 50% and I wish the coverage was not so resolutely first-past-the-post.
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Colin James: Risks in Key's bland ambition
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10523963&pnum=0 -
Steven Joyce de-lurks
Woha. Perfect timing. I wonder if he will lead the charge against Winston Peters on the dodgy funding issues?
Talking about that, anyone remember this?
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That's all I get too,and I suspect that they are very good at making money, however I am not a business, I am people!(at least part thereof) I don't wanna know what this guy John shits. I wanna know substance from Nats policy.
Here's a one-two knockout punch that means I'll be voting for a yellow dog before I vote National:
From pg 11 of the Harold online profile:
"In a more harder-right sounding moment Key in mid-2002 also revealed to the Sunday Star-Times a tough personal view on welfare. Asked about the topic as National struggled internally with its policy line, Key said there had been "enormous growth in the number of people on the DPB, and where people have been, for want of a better term, breeding for a business".
Demonising single mothers is soooo 1980's, John.
Also from pg 11:
"Another example of the looser talk he would steer clear of now came in late 2003 when Key was arguing against Labour's push for a minimum of four weeks' annual leave for workers. He urged other members in the House to go and have a look at the United States, "which has a minimum of two weeks' holiday a year, and the economic prosperity in the US is so much greater than New Zealand's".
Because all those European countries with anything up to six weeks annual leave are dirt-poor, right, John?
And if I needed any evidence that this was a puff-piece, I personally don't need to look any further than pg 7:
"Though the $233,000 salary he receives as Leader of the Opposition is something most Kiwis will never receive, it is a drop in the ocean compared with the millions he received as a trader. He gives away much of his six-figure Parliamentary salary.
blahblahblah health treatment blahblahblah school fundraising blahblahblah larger sums of money for individual charities"
Seriously, why not have him wearing a white robe, surrounded by children singing 'we are the world'?
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