Hard News: The odds, and the simply odd
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That Labour pack looks a bit stronger now that the Otago loose forward Benson-Pope, who spent far too much time in the sin-bin, has retired.
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Paul Williams: Could you at least trot out the Yankee political clichés with some precision? I would fault Matthew for the grotesque libel on vaginas -- that most functional, aesthetically pleasing and pleasure-giving of orifices. But I don't think "cunt" is a rather recondite racial slur, even on Oxford Street. :)
Yeah it's a bit misapplied since Matt's no candidate nor was the comment racist but I don't know that it matters terribly - my point is simply that he'd managed to make a complete arse of himself on the campaign trail. Worse, he might cause people to have sympathy for Winnie. Once a baffoon, always a baffoon.
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Craig: I call unfair out of context quoting
Paul: I thought I was taking the piss, but seriously. If I was going to fault Hooten for anything, it was making himself available to be the straight man for what was obviously going to be Willie playing Sean Hannity to Winnie's Sarah Palin.
I think there's certainly room for a lively Maori-centric panel debate show on television. Eye to Eye isn't it; more like the worse aspects the US Sunday morning screaming skull shows with more melanin. Blech...
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Worse, he might cause people to have sympathy for Winnie.
Even a highly unlikely 2% swing in sympathy to NZ First would still be a dead vote. It is worth the risk.
National will do well keeping Winston's extracirricular activities in the forefront of the public mind. If Helen Clark's "This one's about trust" is juxatuposed with Helen Clark's continual trust of Winston "race-baiter, back-pockets" Peters it works well for National.
Hooten denouncing Winston on Eye to Eye is a good enough effort.
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Angus, I confess I don't understand Labour's strategy with NZF. Even if I did, I don't know that I'd support or defend it. FWIW, I have no sympathy nor respect for Winston. He and Hooten were made for one another and I suspect they both got what the wanted from the exchange.
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National will do well keeping Winston's extracirricular activities in the forefront of the public mind. If Helen Clark's "This one's about trust" is juxatuposed with Helen Clark's continual trust of Winston "race-baiter, back-pockets" Peters it works well for National.
The risk is that it comes across like McCain banging on about Bill Ayers: people start wonder why you're banging on about a peripheral issue while the economy is in crisis. I'd go so far as to say that Clark would welcome it.
I honestly don't know how many people out there feel as strongly about Peters at Hooton does.
Hooten denouncing Winston on Eye to Eye is a good enough effort.
It wasn't so much the denouncing as the behaviour around it. He seems to have been in a needlessly high state of agitation even before Peters arrived. I don't think he's quite the image National is going for.
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Apologies if it was posted elsewhere, but Salon's take on Mrs Palin's own "palling around with terrorists" was certainly interesting:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/10/palin_chryson/Rather hyperbolic headline, sure, and should partly be put down to the bragging of the secessionists but interesting that they aren't quite as removed from her as she'd have you think...
Normally, I wouldn't give a rats, but is interesting in light of the tenuous Ayers connection she keeps trying to make.
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That Labour pack looks a bit stronger now that the Otago loose forward Benson-Pope, who spent far too much time in the sin-bin, has retired.
Sorry Paul- the rugby analogies are still working if getting a little stretched. DBP was in our high school rugby team - as a prop rather than loose forward as you would expect. Rather a good one as I recall.
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And in possible "buy the vote, damn the deficit" news, Labour pledges universal student allowances according to the Herald's harbinger of new-to-come ticker-tape.
Will be interesting to see details and affordability...
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Helen Clark is talking at present - or probably recently finished, at the Otago University Union. Must be close to two thousand people there, I couldn't get close enough to see the room that she was speaking in, let alone see her.
Grant McDougall was inside when I walked past earlier, hopefully he'll report. I understand she'll be making an announcement on student allowances today.
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Ah, and there ya go. Herald is first, that's quick.
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I don't think he's quite the image National is going for.
But do they?
There's so many quasi independent bloggers claiming inside knowledge and experience of National and most of them are complete morons, none moreso that Cameron Slater, and yet National doesn't declaim them.
I don't think many parties give much thought to their blog-presence (if they do, I'd suggest they think again), but surely Hooten's not much of a pin-up, not compared with David?
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Stupid! Labour was managing to pull themselves back into looking like competent economic managers, and National was coming out with tone deaf policies like criminalising the parents of truants.
This looks irresponsible and election-bribey. And the student voting bloc is not large. Whatever you think of the underlying policy, right now it looks unafforable and silly.
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Wow. Student Allowances for all. Wow. In 1995/6, I'd've been over-the-moon if this had been policy. Now I'm not so sure.
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I get the impression that the Nats thought they could just stroll into power this time and that explains the incredibly bad campaign they're running.Whoever is behind their billboards just doesn't have a clue.
H1's announcement of universal student benefits is smart - whether it is enough to swing that demographic (as they did last time) I wonder.
As for Hooten & Winni - why do I keep thinking of pots and kettles?
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This incredulous ABC correspondent's blog ponders Palin's counter to the ethics report.
Just flat-out lying about it, it seems:
"Well, I’m very very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing," Palin said, "any hint of any kind of unethical activity there. Very pleased to be cleared of any of that."
That's just not the case.
And this is scary.
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The policy would cost $210 million a year once it is fully implemented.
The threshold for receiving an allowance will rise from $45,743 now to $50,318 on January 1 2009.
It will then rise to $70,000 in 2010, $100,000 in 2011 and be abolished in 2012.
I guess $210m a year come 2012 isn't an outrageous amount of money but it does seem an odd time to announce it.
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And all I can think is bollocks, I'm not going to be a student (in this country, at any rate) in 2012.
Quick note on the Key ad: a poll of my flat showed that the general first thought was "but if he's in the passenger seat, who's driving?". Subtext Fail.
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I guess $210m a year come 2012 isn't an outrageous amount of money but it does seem an odd time to announce it.
Agree. If that costing is accurate, it's not wildly unaffordable, but with the PREFU numbers and the rhetoric about not trusting National to run a tight ship, announcing it now (rather than making some vague promise about "further support of tertiary education students" then doing the details in this December 'mini budget') looks irresponsible.
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Agree. If that costing is accurate, it's not wildly unaffordable, but with the PREFU numbers and the rhetoric about not trusting National to run a tight ship, announcing it now (rather than making some vague promise about "further support of tertiary education students" then doing the details in this December 'mini budget') looks irresponsible.
Me, I'm just annoyed that I finally finish being a student at the end of this year!
But seriously, the timing for this is strange, at once cynical and desperate. In the long run it probably won't break the coffers that much, but the real question is whether it's actually worth the risk.More pertinently, could the newswires stop using "Party insiders" as a source and just admit to talking to the secretaries and/or their typewriters? It's lazy journalism.
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The policy would cost $210 million a year once it is fully implemented.
I can't help wondering if the assumptions on the costing are as heroic as they were for the student/parent bribe in 2005.
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The columnists appear to be as one:
If you had arrived in Auckland from another planet and gone to both launches, you'd probably have thought that National was the tired old Government and that Labour was the fresh invigorated party on the brink of power.
It was that stark: dull vs energised.
In politics, however, the important thing is to look as if you are in control and addressing the problem, and that Clark managed very effectively yesterday. Labour has hit the campaign trail running, and National has some catching up to do just as the polls appear to be turning.
But, crucially, it gave Labour the ability to shout from its launch, 'Look, we are governing and have a plan' – versus the rehashed vision outlined by National leader Mr Key.
Coming on the back of two polls on Friday which must have caused National MPs to suck in their breath – both pointed to a huge swing back to Labour and the prospect of the "unloseable" election slipping from National's grasp – Labour's all-action launch has thrown the election wide open.
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Quick note on the Key ad: a poll of my flat showed that the general first thought was "but if he's in the passenger seat, who's driving?". Subtext Fail.
ah ha ha ha ha ha
the VRWC of course
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I can't help wondering if the assumptions on the costing are as heroic as they were for the student/parent bribe in 2005.
Shit yeah. Labour better have caculated this properly otherwise the National Party is going to OIA this to hell. As they have every right to- I mean, I'm all for generous policies such as this one, but we need to know the cost.
Expect Ombudsman Bev Wakem to be on the telly a bit more in the near future. -
In the long run it probably won't break the coffers that much, but the real question is whether it's actually worth the risk.
Especially when raising the amount you're allowed to borrow for living costs by more than five bucks (could that have *been* more insulting*?) would have got a lot of student votes and been at least theoretically more financially viable.
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