OnPoint: Two wallops of wonk, with a side of waffle
119 Responses
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My concern is how much National will truly listen, and whose words they will privilege when they do that listening.
It seems bizarre to me that despite the fact that a large chunk of the NZ population voted for Labour, just a few months ago, they have been deliberately shut out of the summit. They governed for the last 9 years, and they may have some useful insights to offer on how to weld the ideas that arise to the machinery of government. Labour invited National to the Knowledge Wave conference after all.
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Keynes wrote:
If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment
The Nats seem to be working on various variations on this:
- dark fibre to every urbanish home (quite likely to stay dark, in many cases) - pork for Transfield and the like
- a cycle route through NZ - pork for the construction biz
- one training day a week in manufacturing companies (presumably not those who have products people want to buy)I guess that their friends (those who are not Friends Of John not having been invited to his party) will be busily discussing how to maximise the amount of said pork that winds up in their pockets.
Call me silly, but wouldn't it be easier to just spend the money in areas that need it - smaller classes, more doctors and nurses, housing improvements, etc. Of course that would be less efficient in helping those that really need the cash - said Friends Of John.
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I hear that everyone other than rich white men are woefully underrepresented. Is this in fact true, and did you have to disguise yourself by donning a white hood to enter the room?
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"Rule".
Just sayin'
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Right now, there are about a dozen "sub-workflow" going on.
Inter-Office Memo: When looking for jargon to replace 'workshop' or 'breakout session', try to come up with something that doesn't sound like a symptom of urinary tract infection.
I hear that everyone other than rich white men are woefully underrepresented. Is this in fact true, and did you have to disguise yourself by donning a white hood to enter the room?
Jeebus Cyst, George... Is there a Godwin's Law of Klan References?
My concern is how much National will truly listen, and whose words they will privilege when they do that listening.
Julie: Just to play devil's advocate for a moment, part of earning a living is "truly listening" to a lot of people who talk an awful amount of crap, or seem to spend much of their lives in a wonderful world where the eternal summer air is perfumed is cinnamon-scented unicorn farts. As a rule, I generally "privilege" the speaking of people who have a grip on obstinate -- and often uncongenial -- realities, where most of the time you're left choosing the least unpleasant option.
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I hear that everyone other than rich white men are woefully underrepresented.
But are they getting paid to do this?
Dammit they are.
I guess that seals it the verdict is in. While the post war generations exhibited certain amounts of angst about what previous rich white folk did to the world; wars, multiple cultural genocides, colonialism the list goes on. And tried to curtail these excesses, well they were only little wars.What is their legacy an arcane financial system they insist on propping up, the dismantling of social services and making everyone pay for education and health services, plus making lives even more dull and narrow(for the majority unless you worship money or sport) and a heavy larding on the buttocks and brains of quite a few people.
Yes I blame the fuckers who took us in this direction.In this country starting with Muldoon and coming full circle with Shkey. And while Labour tried to right some wrongs with little successs, they allowed themselves to be bullied internationally.
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A cycleway the length of NZ! Be still my heart!
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Jeebus Cyst, George... Is there a Godwin's Law of Klan References?
That was a Godwinable offence. I'm pleading guilty in the hope of diversion.
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Their innumeracy is laughable:
- as already pointed out on the Herald, the 3,700 workers on the cycle way would make no more than $2.50 an hour over two years.
- the government figure of $40mln per 10,000 workers for the 9 day fortnight is about right. However this only "saves" 1,000 jobs at a cost of $40,000 annually a job.
- the working population of NZ is around 2.1 million - the cycleway would employ just over 0.1% of that, so it's of no real help.
- It's expected that unemployment will rise from under 5% to over 11%, equalling 126,000 jobs. To prevent that with the 9 day fortnight scheme would cost $5bln a year or about 4% of GDP.
I guess we *could* borrow that, but I think the government should come clean about it. The real problem is that businesses wouldn't restructure (indeed, the whole plan is designed to remove the need for them to do so) and thus it's likely that this would go on until we run out of borrowing facilities.
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I know our school could definitely use some spending to bring it into the new millenium
carpet, curtains, furniture in classroom (very old, worn and stained - or in the case of curtains, sometimes non-existent - not so good for projecting...cannot see projection in bright sunny classrooms!)
technology - mounted projectors, smartboards - not in the schools current budget :-(
resources - my dept in particular is really suffering here but has no money to replace/update in anywhere near the levels we should be. This was even commented on by ERO but our dept budget this year is same as last years.... -
Call me silly, but wouldn't it be easier to just spend the money in areas that need it - smaller classes, more doctors and nurses, housing improvements, etc. Of course that would be less efficient in helping those that really need the cash - said Friends Of John.
I'm no expert in economic stimulus but...
Some things, when you 'throw' money at them, lead to greater economic effects than others.
If I subsidise you $1 million of the cost of building something, and you pay the other $4 million I'm getting 5 times the economic bang for my buck.
If I pay you $1 million to employ more teachers, I'm getting equal money for my buck (well, actually more than that, there are flow-on economic and other benefits from employing more teachers, but they're not as tangible).
I would presume the national government is looking for 'little things' that they can do, so that business keeps investing, employing people, building stuff, selling things etc. If the government can pay for 10% of things (say a small benefit for me to stop working that 5th day), and business pays the other 90% and stays open and doing stuff, that's probably a good return for government investment.
That's why we're probably not going to see any economic rescue packages which focus on reducing hospital waiting queues for the elderly. Little economic stimulus, not much economic flow on effects, sorry elderly.
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Back to the rule :-)
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
vs.
Prominent right-winger says
Just sayin'
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That's not revealing anything. Everyone there is a National or ACT supporter and Keith hasn't said which. It doesn't say you can't differentiate between prominent right-winger and right-wing nonentity.
Anyway, as the people funding the talkfest, aren't we *entitled* to know who said what?
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That's why we're probably not going to see any economic rescue packages which focus on reducing hospital waiting queues for the elderly. Little economic stimulus, not much economic flow on effects, sorry elderly.
I was talking last night to an old friend in Wellington who works in the union movement.
He said the number of layoffs they were seeing coming through from the manufacturing sector was really scary.
The problem with that is that manufacturing jobs are bloody hard to get back once they've gone -- especially when other, lower-cost manufacturing economies are bleeding badly already.
So if your aim is to try and prevent damaging job losses in the short term, it does make sense to target the sectors where the jobs are at risk, even if they're not where there might be the most compelling public good arguments.
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In relation to the 9 day working week or some other reduction in hours thing - can they guarantee that workers won't be expected to still do the same amount of work in less time? Not everyone is the stereotypical slacker, and there will be some who simply can't bear to do a bad job - which might be the case if they only have 90% of the time needed to do a job 100%.. I would be worried about people working extra hours on the 9 days in order to not be at work on the 10th.
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As an employee I have concerns about the floated 4-day week (or the 9 day fortnight).
I haven't done any research but the implication is that, apart from the 20% pay cut as outlined in Keith's post, the same amount of work would be expected to be done in less time. Many people are stuggling with the work/life balance as it is.
The counter would be that you'd have an extra day off. Where I work the job routinely cuts into our evenings and weekends. Its a part of doing what we do. But that still makes it extremely difficult to do anything else. And if you have to work all the time on your four "work" days, then your extra day off becomes a time when you catch up on all of the things that you haven't had a chance to do otherwise. -
@caycos
Snap! -
manufacturing jobs are bloody hard to get back once they've gone
Because the businesses were unsustainable and only kept going by inertia?
Face it, manufacturing most consumer and lower end industrial goods in NZ (or any other developed state) is never going to be an economic proposition. We have to find things to do that add enough value to cover reasonable wage levels. Like inventing Broadband radar, for instance.
The only other alternatives I can see would be:
- moving to some form of autarchy where we make our own clothes, food and vehicles in tiny factories. We'd have to save for a month to buy a pair of jeans and five years to buy a car, but I guess it might guarantee employment.- the world economy will eventually level out at a state where India and China have roughly the same standard of living as the current OECD states. This will mean that we'll have a largish portion of our population living in ditches and eating grass, but it will be sustainable. I think it might spark a revolution first, though.
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In case anyone hasn't noticed, here's Keith's second post from the summit, covering the four-day week discussion.
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Here's an idea. The Government nationalises all housing. That way, people will be able to take cuts of 2-3 days per week, not having to pay rent or mortgages.
Problem solved, right?
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That was a Godwinable offence. I'm pleading guilty in the hope of diversion.
Mr Darroch: Learn a coin trick or two. Some dance moves. If all else fails, a punch in the junk is about as diverting as it gets. :)
I'm no expert in economic stimulus but...
Here's the dirty little secret, Kyle - nobody is.
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Unemployment benefits of 80% for 2 years, for the mooted 125,000 people, would cost about $8 billion.
If we confiscated the wealth of the NBR rich list ($44 billion), we could keep that going for 5 years.
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Re the Chatham House rule:
Graeme, you know very well that 'affiliation' in that context means what organisation the speaker is from. Or, at the very least, information that allows the person to be identified. Given that at least half of the participants are 'prominent right wingers' its not much of an identifying trait.
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Rich:
- the government figure of $40mln per 10,000 workers for the 9 day fortnight is about right. However this only "saves" 1,000 jobs at a cost of $40,000 annually a job.
Is the 1:10 ratio your estimate? It's kinda conservative. But put it this way, the dole will cost around $8,000-16,000 per year per worker ($16k is for couples). Plus accommodation supplement, etc.
Then there's the flow on effects of decreased spending within those families. Then there's the decreased spending from people who still have their jobs, but are too scared to spend because everyone else is getting laid-off.
All I'm saying is that the fiscal cost of mass layoffs are pretty big, too.
And even if, accounting for all of that, it's still cheaper to have people on the dole, *then* you need to consider the long-term social impact of having more families that rely on the dole as their primary source of income.
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Rich still:
- as already pointed out on the Herald, the 3,700 workers on the cycle way would make no more than $2.50 an hour over two years.
- the working population of NZ is around 2.1 million - the cycleway would employ just over 0.1% of that, so it's of no real help.
3,700 jobs isn't something to be pooh-poohed at. You're not really going to find - or want - a single project that will suck up 126,000 jobs.
Hmmm. Conveniently enough, the Manhattan Project employed 130,000 people.
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