Posts by BenWilson
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It's a counterfactual because why? 7 seats would have been decided differently in favour of the 113,000 people who voted for Conservatives or IMP. If you believed in more proportional representation yesterday why would you stop believing it today?
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Tom Semmens,
The time of reckoning for Labour, first for betraying it’s voters with the neo-liberal revolution then for selling out and going up the blind alley of identity politics, is now at hand
Sounds all very biblical. What do you actually think they should do, though? I don't really have much interest in advising them, because I don't think they're even amenable to such advice, contrary to what you might think about who runs them. It sure isn't the PAS team, who mostly don't even vote for them. But I'd be keen to hear your ideas, now that we've got the customary slag on the whole community out of the way.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Keir Leslie,
Also Dyson is not on the right of the Party so the suggestion it is National voters voting to keep Labour right is not very powerful I don’t think.
It's worth considering, before you get all upset about all the Labour support strangely voting National, to look at the possibility that it's actually National support voting Labour, because they realize that electorates don't matter, but keeping Labour old and divided does.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Alfie,
It all depends on the detail of the law, too. There are many ways to implement CGT, some of them indexing to inflation. If the gain was only inflation, then there is no tax to pay at all. Of course we would have to include property prices in our inflation statistics, which for some reason we don't, despite them being by far the biggest cost in our lives. More than 60% of our household income services our mortgage on our modest house worth roughly the national median and much less than the Auckland one, and we have 40% equity.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Amanda Wreckonwith,
That shit is why I don't watch TV news. It was quite horrible to have to do it last night.
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Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch…, in reply to ,
I don’t get the joke. Maybe its because I attended protest marches around Eden park during the 1980s in which Minto played a huge part in organizing.
Yup, if I was in Roskill I'd have given him my vote, just for the novelty value of being able to say what a dude I think he is that way. To be able to simultaneously signal that I think Goff is a cock is just a bonus. I'm still paying for his influence on NZ even now. I've shelled out many thousands over the last few years to gain some skills, and I'm going to have to do it again for both of my kids.
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Another possibility that seems unsuggested is that National voters tactically voted to keep the most right wing Labour candidates in, because they know just how divided that it will make Labour. When you're in a safe Labour seat with the guy who destroyed free tertiary education in this country, you might think it's an excellent insurance policy to vote for him.
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I hate to suggest this, but perhaps there's a significant fraction of National voters who think that Goff, Mallard and King are excellent National party candidates.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to william blake,
Seemingly, the only way to slay the beast is by forming a similar behemoth on the left.
I still don't buy this. I think last night was proof that no such behemoth exists any more. There is a small party with support of a diminishing number of old people, which once had wide appeal. It's not like Labour haven't been trying to be this behemoth. Their only real success of the night was killing Mana and the Internet party, but not by growing their own base, just tactically killing the coat-tailing on the left. It seems to me that the problem this election is just the same as the last one - that basically the youth didn't vote. I'd love to be corrected, but it looks like that problem only got worse this time.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Bart Janssen,
I still think there is something weird going on with people who vote Goff but party vote National. They need to be understood.
I think a pause to actually check all the figures and analyze what really actually happened is important. Because I just don't buy how it is being spun by the triumphant owners of a small minority generated mostly by overhang.
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