Posts by Che Tibby
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Rex Widerstrom,
Oh, he's back alright, and not shy about saying so. It's not so much "on the sly" as he hasn't gained enough traction to get much in the way of coverage so far
yeah, the Che's Anecdotameter isn't feeling it. i can see that there's a chance he could get the 90k votes needed, and there's still time for the opportunistic media exploit, but... my current money in on the no.
once again, would hate to have to stand corrected.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Rex Widerstrom,
but have been so disillusioned by the mendacity of politicians that they now feel any information on which they might base a conclusion is likely to be false.
+1
although, sometimes i think, "christ, i can't vote for this crowd this time round"
then, the conservatives propose to make families illegal, or dig up the milford sound to look for uranium, or give subsidies to hard-working corporations.
at which point i go, "FFS... watermelon it is. again."
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Paul Williams,
in Australia, you are required to vote if on the Register
please note: "voting" includes collecting your ballot paper, improving it stylistically by drawing a large phallus or two, and leaving with smug grin.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Christopher Dempsey,
I’m sure Dunne every morning gets on his knees and thanks the Greens for his position.
i'm not quite sure how to read that.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Clint Fern,
There are so many possibilities that could influence it -
Maori Party could drop one or two seats
ACT could disappear (yes please)
Winston could return with a sizeable number
Dunne & Anderton may go
Greens may increase with disaffected Labour supporters
Chch votes may be affected hugely by Brownlees rebuilding or reaction to ECana further 2c.
- Maori Party - agreed.
- ACT disappear - agreed. you can't imagine National not being willing and able to undermine Hide in Epsom.
- Winston return - i'm not sure where this meme comes from. WP has been making some noises, but it's nothing like the Winston of old. he could make a late run, but... i doubt it. will be horrified to have to stand corrected.
- Dunne - Last election saw Dunne return almost solely due to Green votes splitting the Labour candidate. If the Greens resurge, your next point), there's every chance every chance he could be back representing me.
Anderton - Retiring. Wigram could go Labour. Dunno.
Greens taking Labour party votes - Always the way. But that will only increase the likelihood of a National Govt.
this all adds up to a Nat-UF-MP govt, pending ACT somehow magically recovering from the rorting-rort-buster/child-grave-robber meme...
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Clint Fern,
well, i can verify that's right.
hence the strange coalition at the last election. Nats needed to balance out the competing interests of their minor parties, almost entirely due to the 2-seat overhang.
as i said waaay back when, these guys are likely to pull in 60 seats on the back of Key's charm and their response to CHCH. that really opens up some options.
i think we're talking the same story. except, i think the machinations of the Maori party are neither here nor there. we labour voters will remain on the other for another three years.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Jackie Clark,
I have zero love or tolerance for Bennett but calling her fat, whilst it may be true, has nothing to do with her hateful way of being. Or maybe it does.
i'll go out on a limb and suggest that her problems run a lot deeper than body image.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Clint Fern,
yeah, i'm not entirely up with the state of play in the maori seats, and maori voters seem to be very canny with vote-splitting.
but at least maintaining their party vote isn't so unlikely. assuming they lose Katene's seat they could still manage three at a minimum (again assuming an overhang). that's a perfectly adequate number of seats to go into coalition with the Nats.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Rex Widerstrom,
I fear Clarkson may have been doing an excellent job of representing at least the views of the majority of its electors.
+1.
the man was a fcknuckle, but... that's my home town. it's a like a great big fkcnuckle gang bang.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Clint Fern,
They currently have 4 seats and 1 of those is looking in trouble so that kind of blows your theory out of the water.
i'll assume you're not so familiar with MMP...
have you heard of the overhang?