Posts by BenWilson
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Hard News: The perils of political confidence, in reply to Russell Brown,
So your contention is that Bryce Johns has put his head on the block -- and potentially his job on the line -- by entirely fabricating the details of a conversation and telling everyone about this non-existent conversation, including APN's layers and senior executives?
No, I think that a conversation happened, and was recorded. But I don't think that it's going to have explosive content. Furthermore, whether it does or not, it is between the Herald and Key/Banks, and the other parties should keep well out of it. It's news to me whether anyone's head is on the block, it seems to me like it's just some footage the Herald might like to use because it would sell papers.
Of course I'm only going on public information in this, I don't have journalistic insiders feeding it to me. Maybe there is a real leak here, which would explain the instant Labour lockjaw fix on it.
If they did seriously say anything "game changing" then that suggests that two extremely canny politicians did something extraordinarily cretinous. I'll back the Herald having weak news over that most days, without any further information.
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Hard News: The perils of political confidence, in reply to Russell Brown,
Well, why clear out the journalists at a media event, then?
To give it authenticity as a cup of tea? And to avoid undermining the authenticity of it by having to actually script a careful conversation about politics, or undermine any political purpose in it at all by talking only pleasantries. It worked better as something seen but not heard.
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Hard News: The perils of political confidence, in reply to Russell Brown,
I don't think there's as much potential for blowback as you suggest, and it's not as if they have anything to lose.
They do have something to lose - image. Key has gained popularity every time his honesty has been called into question by Labour. There is a risk that there's nothing whatsoever in this story, and he can appeal to middle New Zealand about the right of a good honest bloke to have a conversation without being taped. At this stage of the game giving Key opportunities to pull off a smile and wave in response to a question isn't in Labour's interests at all, and that may be all that is needed. They're making much better progress with positive politics.
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I frankly think Labour and others should ignore this incident completely, since it is news manufactured by the Herald, and puts them at loggerheads with the Government. The Herald can handle it, they don't need any help at all making the news up, and if Key gets grumpy with them, they may well bite back. The other parties need nothing to do with this. If they want to hammer ACT, there's ample evidence that is both more damning and already public. Banks' outspoken positions over the years are damning enough, let alone his latest racist brain fart.
I think there's a much richer seam in asking why the leader of the ACT party isn't the person representing the party in the electorate, as every other minor party ever has done in their most crucial seat. Is he really that embarrassing? Are they a party that divided that there will be a leadership bid before we even get a government?
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Hard News: The perils of political confidence, in reply to Deborah,
I'm not sure that they can, given than John Key's movements are probably highly scrutinised at present, and a meeting in private might suggest that they really were plotting something nasty.
I don't reckon, on either score. The PM can move in secret if he so desires, and has the secret service to give him an ability to do so. Not that there's any need to be cloak and dagger - they're fully allowed to meet whoever they like in private, and meeting their current coalition partners shouldn't even raise an eyebrow. Of course there's things to discuss with Banks. That's not news at all, never was until they stage managed it to be so.
But it's not even necessary. Does anyone think for a minute that Key would not be in regular contact with the ACT party hierarchy? They're in government with each other right now. They would probably use the telephone, because it's obviously much more efficient anyway, doesn't involve wasting precious time during an election campaign.
The thing about this "tea party" is that it's a contrived photo opportunity, designed quite carefully to convey key messages non-verbally.
The first one is that such a meeting would be even needed, which implies that they're not that close. What bollocks, FFS Banks used to be in the National Party, and Brash used to lead the National Party. Hide was the guy who made the Supercity. They're in government with National right now.
The second is that Key wants to send a signal to Epsom to support Banks, but he doesn't want to come out and say it, because he's fully aware of how unpopular ACT are. So he doesn't just come out and say it, but instead makes a symbolic gesture of friendliness, which commits him to nothing post election.
The third is that both of them want to send signals that they're the kind of people who would take coffee in public, rather like most of the population of the country do*. I very much doubt this has been the case for either of them for a very long time. They chose tea rather than coffee because coffee has just that little bit of an elitist urban implication, wouldn't want to alienate the heartland. Who drink coffee anyway, indeed they probably drink good coffee. But it's something of a meme, mocking trendy people in their cafes.
*ETA I should amend that to "like most of the population of the country would have no problem doing, when meeting someone to discuss something"
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Hard News: The perils of political confidence, in reply to Paul Williams,
That's much more plausible. Possibly Key provided a frank and critical appraisal of Brash and Banks agreed?
It could be absolutely anything, given the tiny tidbits of nothingness we've got so far. Could be nothing more than a belief by the Herald people that the tone of two really rich and powerful guys who have known each other for years talking to each other comfortably might put off the populace who are sold on Key's folksy charm. That was one of the most interesting parts of The Hollow Men, the frank contempt that they held for "the punters in Punterland". Bad tone could be more damaging to Key than anything actually substantial, since they have no popular policy. It's vital that his mask does not slip. The last thing National need is a "We love you, Mr Lange" moment.
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Time will tell on this one.
Key could have made a dick move, creating a story where there was none, or it could work out - maybe the conversation was banal, and he's refusing on principle, hoping to lure opposition into focusing on it. Then he can authorize the release and it will be about Coro St, which tea to order, etc. Then once again opposition will have lost valuable time playing the man rather than the ball.
Then again, it may be that they actually discussed something of substance. That would be a truly idiotic thing to do, quite frankly, since it's not like neither of them has ever heard of a telephone, or that they can't meet in actual private. I can't put it past either of them to be a little bit idiotic, but that would really take the cake.
Indeed, I find the circumstances of this recording weird. It could even be a trap of their own making, to try to make the opposition sound paranoid.
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Kumara Republic,
In other words, Mana is a worthy successor to the Alliance.
Sort of. The Alliance was a real mishmash, and in the end that did them no good. Mana does not need to divest from strong Green affiliation, even though I think they are most likely very Green sympathetic. They'd be very easy bedfellows, and Greens might get a lot of advantage pushing more toward the center - environmentalism is much more likely to figure as a top priority for middle classes than the impoverished, who are more likely concerned about more basic quality of life issues - food, shelter, health, exploitation, justice.
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Sacha,
Doesn't the Maori Party also support it so iwi can buy assets?
I don't know. If they do, they are fucking idiots. Indeed, I think Mana would do very well from any such announcement. In fact, I think Mana have quite a bright future anyway. It would be amazing to actually have a "poor people's party", with a strong emphasis on social justice. It's something that's been largely absent in NZ politics, left to the Greens, who may have actually been held back by it, when their real focus is environmentalism.
I never would have thought this would happen in NZ politics, that such a party would emerge from a splintered Maori party. But the iwi focus of the Maori Party has always been something ever so slightly alienating to Maori who may have felt left out of iwi politics, and perceived the whole thing to be a power grab by a small clique of powerful tribal leaders. It may actually broaden the base of Maori voters. I hope it does.
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Sacha,
Yup, and he'd be all the more inclined to it, if it was required because he didn't have the votes otherwise. I think they'd find it very hard to sell off assets without Dunne and ACT delivering them a majority. No other parties want that.
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