Posts by Zach Bagnall
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Watching with bemusement in Colorado. Can't help think of the brexit referendum campaigns.. prior to the vote, remain was polling ahead by a few percent and markets were predicting 75% chance of remain win. Sound familiar?
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Paul Ryan recognizing and pitching to the evaporating middle class.
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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Alfie,
I must say that the Guardian is doing a brilliant job of reporting this disaster.
The FT has been terrific throughout as well. If you hit the paywall, just google the title text and hit the link.
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If there's a stream, I'll tune in from here in sunny Colorado.
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Hard News: How the years flew by ..., in reply to tussock,
Deckchairs on the Titanic and all that.
The iceberg is 20 years away but it's going to be ugly.
Returns of 3% instead of historic 7-8% (NZ Superfund underfunded)
+ a generation reaching retirement with a mortgage, or worse, still renting
+ being told to work longer while opportunities for anyone over 50 rapidly evaporate.Is that too pessimistic? At least one of those factors can be addressed by govt if they choose to.
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Isn't there already a CGT on homes other than the one you're occupying?
Edit: Holy shit, I guess not - except for the recent 2-year thing. That explains a lot.. -
Hard News: How the years flew by ..., in reply to Tom Semmens,
The only option is to stop prices rising and then let 10-20 years of inflation and wage growth to chip away at the affordability issue.
That seems like the way to go. Auckland prices could fall 50% and still be considered "unaffordable". There hasn't been a fall like that since the 70s and it wouldn't be allowed to happen now, so I'm not even holding my breath for a correction let alone a full blown crash.
I'd like to see more incentives for investment outside of Auckland, and some effort to tilt investors away from property and back to productive economic activity.
Bart is right that NZ is relatively poor, but selling houses to each other (including to wealthy overseas actors) isn't helping that.
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Hard News: How the years flew by ..., in reply to Glenn Pearce,
Another factor is that the children of Boomers are quite happy for it to perpetuate
They're really not. A family home divided 2.4 ways isn't going to save people close to retirement age who were never able to buy on their own while working.
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Some years ago this was seemed like an Auckland-only problem. I don't think that's the case any more. It's in all the major cities and spreading.
I don't think it's accurate to blame the current government or the previous one. Kiwis prefer property investment over productive economic investment (eg Kiwisaver).. a wholesale cultural change is necessary.
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Hard News: So what now?, in reply to Sacha,
Looks pretty good to me!