Posts by BenWilson
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If it's to go into a local scheme I'd only be doing it out of patriotism. As it is right now, Ozzie dollars storming ahead, I'm even happier with it over there.
I could look into it, but foresee a wall of bureaucracy, involving 2 governments. Hmmmm.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Matthew Poole,
Sure, it's bloody unlikely, but I like to know what the disaster would be, even if it were to strike. It's hardly a disaster to go from AA+ to AA.
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How hard can it be to say "NZers must save 3%"? They just put up GST by 3% without batting an eyelid. The older the people are that the scheme is being put to, the more they will like it since they are already shitting their pants about their retirement. Only to kids will it be a hard sell, and kids don't vote National.
Edit: Oh, and foreigners won't like it. I didn't much like being forced into it in Oz. But...as I get older I hate it less, that there's 50g waiting for me over there.
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Reading even further into that lovely link (cheers Dismal!), they make it plain that no nation with an A rating or above has defaulted within 15 years of reaching it. Which means that there would be no real justification for increased interest rates, even if we got downgraded all the way to A. It would simply be a reflection of the honest truth that NZ has a private debt problem.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Dismal Soyanz,
So we get downgraded, and they up interest rates. We get our house in order slowly by improving private savings (my preference is for a compulsory scheme with real tax advantages for holding until retirement, much like it is in Oz). After a little while, our rating goes back up.
And that's only IF we get downgraded. Currently we're only at risk of it, and we're always at risk of it. We could just forge on improving savings rates, not get downgraded, not sell our valuable assets, not borrowing heaps and not licking Standard & Poor's dot.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Sam F,
:-) You signposted it better.
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Note to self, make sure to keep CB and VHF radio batteries charged up when we have a revolution.
Edit: Note to self, get iPhone holder on AK47.
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Does that apply to existing debt or new debt?
Edit gah, disregard, you just said. New debt and rollover debt.
It would be nice to know what the real chance of sovereign downgrade is, considering sovereign debt is so low.
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Actually that's just got me thinking. Is the bulk of our foreign debt in property, because so few banks here are locally owned? That absolutely can be fixed.
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OnPoint: Election 2011: GO!, in reply to Rich Lock,
What I don't get is why being "downgraded" is such a horrid outcome for NZ. Keith? Anyone? Surely it just tightens how much debt we can take, which is exactly what we're trying to control in the first place.
Sudden events over which we have no control could cause a dramatic and damaging fall to the economy.
Newsflash. That already happened. What's next?
The SWG does not recommend compulsory KiwiSaver at this time, partly because there is considerable scope for improvement without taking that step.
What would be so bad about it? They're talking about a crisis, surely that demands action, and preferably something way less stupid than selling off money-making assets.
Part of the savings and debt problems may be due to high and variable rates of immigration and this needs further close assessment.
FFS they're a SAVINGS working group, not the NZ First Party.
This shock doctrine crap shits me off. They're manufacturing a crisis, to make sweeping ideological changes. Our private debt is high, but it's not at crisis levels. Even if it was, the only outcome would be lots of defaults on debts by private citizens. This would hardly fuck our economy because the debt is foreign so it won't drive any NZ banks under. Debt retirement would probably have a deflationary effect too.
I see this whole thing being driven by those interests, to be honest. They're the only people who stand to lose if NZers can't pay debts, and that was the risk they took in issuing those debts. If bankruptcies happen, they're probably warranted.
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