Posts by Angus Robertson
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I am ambivalent to whoever wins.
My point is that up until two weeks ago Obama was waltzing in. He was doing it by sticking to the issues - economy, health, war and not indulging in personal politics. He was living the message that this would be a changed Presidency. The economy is not very good and people have an apetite for change. He was going to win. And he might still win, but not for the above reasons because the race has altered.
An "I stand with Stoopid" phenomenon has altered this into a normal dirty Presidential race and "change" is not in evidence. The Republicans nominated Palin and that caused the leftist punditry who stand with Obama some surprise. They could have stuck on message, done a little research to portray dismay at Palin's attitude to the economy, healthcare and war. But that would have been a continuation of the smart and intelligent issues politics Obama employs. Instead these erstwhile supporters of Obama told America that Palin was pregnant before she got married, flew 7 hours after her waters had broken, should be at home looking after her kids, has a husband having an incestuous affair with a daughter and was covering up her daughters pregnancy - all of which was either triviality or fabrication. How completely non-brain-engaged is that sh*t?
Obama needs the pundits for the good motivation they can provide to the Dem base, but their utter incompetent stoopidity in smearing Palin has shot his message of change to pieces amoung the wider electorate. It has provided ammunition to the rightist punditry to smear back making "lipstick on a pig" look credible compared to the "Trig as Bristol's baby" rumour of last week. And it has been the making of Sarah Palin, a nobody politician is the talk of America having been gifted a profile on which to build a platform.
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Are you serious? The fact that this is all she's done, a controlled vanity styled interview has added to the negative.
Definitely serious. She is doing a high profile exclusive for ABC. ABC will hype its publicity, the negative reaction by the other press will hype its publicity. The lead on ABC for the next two days is going to be Sarah Palin laughing at some of the rumours spread and a lot of people will be watching.
Can you point me towards a Sunday face the press type show, an open press conference or anything of the sort...no, I guess not.
No, Simon I guess she isn't doing any of the low profile, barely noted interviews of the type Biden is putting out. Quite how this plays negatively though...
If by next week Palin is running open press all current negativity will be reversed, because her actions will prove her nay-sayers wrong - again. Which will make her look more credible than her detractors - again.
Both those stories are watertight, Angus...backed, annotated, documented. There was a link to the promotion story above...
Just off the top of my head, the Republicans can seriously dent that promotion story by pumping positive quotes the officer made about Palin in the early period or saying that the promotion was a natural occurance in his career due to him.
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No, not at all true..leading up to the convention he was on average one or two points ahead...about where he is now.
I am reading the tracking polls off "538" 2 show negative and only 1 shows no effect: Rasmussen had Obama +2 prior to conventions and even now, Gallup had Obama +1 then and -5 now, Diageo/Hotline calls it a tie then and tie now. Where are your figures from?
The novelty is gone and she's not setting quite where McCain wants her to settle as their reluctance to expose her to the media means that almost everything you hear about her is negative now. Major mistake, coupled with an even bigger error making her the focal point of the ticket.
She is less than 24 hours from starting a series of interviews on ABC.
All it will take is a couple more stories like those and she becomes liability.
If those aren't watertight they become a smear to add to the waterbreaking/incestuous/grandson smear (amoung others) of last week. Sure they will play well to the Obama faithful, but amoung the swing voters...
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It's called conference bounce, which btw has begun to evaporate now, with most polls either putting Obama back ahead or statistically even.
Which counts as a negative swing because Obama was leading pre-conventions and is now even.
The current feeling amongst many pollsters seems to be that as it plays out, McCain did less well out of the bounce than he was expected to, given the coverage and the Palin factor.
Press coverage and Palin factor that was generated almost entirely by the hardworking "researching" of the left-o-sphere. Given that, I suppose it could have been worse and McCain might have been expected to do better than destroy Obama's lead. But I just can't see Obama as being real happy about this result.
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He was calling on the media to back off Bristol Palin because...
...he understands it is really, really, really bad (like -5% swing bad) for his campaign.
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are you serious?
No, it is an example of the minutae to which the debate quickly descends.
I don't think it's a matter of great import to most Obama voters. Its more about vision forward versus grasping at the past.
That "vision forward" was insufficient to capture more than 50% of the vote in the mere Democratic primaries. And to be brutally honest if their votes are bankably for Obama they are not the people who need to be talked to.
And I'd argue has more credibility than McCain.
Who has been a senator since 1986, has a track record of accomodating enemies (restored diplomacy with Vietnam), did campaign for the surge for 2 years prior to its successful adoption, who spent most of 2000 publically divorcing GWB on policy, has a track record of bi-partisan politics.
Some tories think he is more credible than Obama.
The economy is tanking, unemployment is rising, housing market is in crash mode and the dollar is at near record lows against the euro. Insert Clinton quote here.
Every tory wants this election to be a debate about credibility, foreign policy and visions going forward.
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Russell,
And with the revelations of The Hollow Men, and now this, it seems reasonable to ask whether the racing industry has anything else it would like to tell us. Because the big money that swings around there seems like a malign influence on the body politic.
More money is involved than you think.
A lot of the gaming trust money taken from pub pokies is funnelled into invented trotting clubs (who do not own race courses) that use the money as prizes on stake races to move the cash on to livestock owning club members. The club members then use the money to acquire more drinking establishments that have pokie machines and pressurise the trusts involved to direct their funds to the same 4 invented trotting clubs.
We should have a Minister for Pokies, as well, just to even up things.
Perhaps the Minister for Racing already has it covered.
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Paul,
Is he more experienced that Palin? In my opinion, yes. And there's lots and lots of reasons for this which I think are fair and reasonable and you don't...
That debate comes down to deciding between community organiser or small town mayor; leading a nomination campaign or governing a state with 15,000 employees; membership of a Senate committee or proximity to Siberia.
Just be alert to the fact that raising public awareness of experience will raise public awareness of experience, leading to the same comparison Obama to McCain. I never thought that was a comparison even the most true believing Obama supporter really wants to be made. But apparently I was wrong because every part of the left-o-sphere is raising questions about the credibility of Palin.
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The credibility of Palin is a very partisan issue. This makes her credible enough for the purposes of an election. I'd suggest it wiser to concede the question of credibility.
1. People who identify with her will feel an implication they themselves lack credibility in your eyes.
2. The credibilty of her experience is a dangerous issue as she is not the one running for president. Raise enough awareness of experience issues and you are effectively campaigning for McCain.
3. Focus on a highly partisan issue like this will be detrimental to any campaign running on a meme of hope and change for a better more united future. Partisan politics is politics as usual.
Anything that deflects attention away from the economy, health care and society assists the Republicans. Unless you are absolutely positive that Barack Obama will win a contest with John McCain on the basis of credibity and experience STFU about Palin's lack of experience.
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Danielle,
Sigh. Y'know... oh, never mind.
Y'know I don't know, right.
Shutting up about feminists now - probably a good thing. Spent a few hours googling the subject last night and the debate as to what is feminism is wide. Much wider than represented by talking heads in politics.