Posts by stephen walker

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    Since 2005 I have advocated for the threshold to be halved to 2.5% (one-fortieth of the party vote instead of one-twentieth). With a five percent threshold that means a party has to win the nominal equivalent of six seats, whereas the nominal equivalent of three seats seems much more realistic, fair and democratic. I think there are valid arguments for retaining a threshold in excess of one seat. Anyway, the convenience of 2.5% is that if it is reached the party is guaranteed at least three seats, which has practical advantages within the way parliament works.

    And the coat-tails provision should definitely be scrapped if the threshold were to be halved.

    In this election, TOP wouldn't have made it on the face of the result, but I think that if the threshold were 2.5% they would have attracted a lot more votes from people who did not want to waste their party vote on a party unlikely to make the threshold. So there is a strong chance that they would have made it.

    The current version of MMP is not functioning as well as it could if it was fine-tuned to make it fairer and more transparent.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Media Take: The selling of…, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    classic.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…, in reply to dave stewart,

    It's mind boggling that it took more than five years before any media organisations began to investigate the background of this MP. Dr. Jian Yang has never mentioned his education or career in China in any of his CVs. That's a 16-year blank (1978-1994) in his background, ffs. And after six years as a NZ MP, we now have some questions being asked. Well, it certainly puts into perspective who the National Party are actually working for.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    But there’s no rule that says Labour needs two partners.

    Obviously there is no rule, but a cursory look at the numbers suggests strongly that they will need both the Greens and NZ First to form a government. I mean, are Labour likely to get the largest share of the party vote? Seems pretty unlikely. Will Labour plus Winston have enough to overtake National and whoever they can scrape up as potential coalition partners? That also looks like a very long shot to me. Hence the three-party coalition looks to be the most realistic hope of getting rid of National.

    This latest poll seems pretty bizarre though. Greens going from 15% to 4% in one go? Even allowing for all the negative publicity around Metiria's resignation it still seems too much of a drop. I really would be shocked if they go under 8% in the election.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Metiria's Problem,

    If the Greens really do fail to meet the threshold, then a change of government is pretty much impossible. Labour needs two substantial coalition partners to form a government. So, abandoning the Greens because you think there is a danger that they might not reach 5% and thus waste your vote is potentially very counterproductive, IMHO.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Dirty Politics, in reply to Alfie,

    i'm really struggling with the idea that the content of that Andrea Vance article is not satire.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Prague,

    four days in Prague in the summer of 1990 was an amazing and unforgettable experience. the interregnum, except the new top (Havel) was in place while the old bureacracy and rules continued. it was still full of East German tourists, with very few westerners. and no McD, thank god.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The sole party of government,

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    of the four major parties, only NZ First was up on their 2011 result, with National, Labour and the Greens all falling. Of the five minor parties, the two parties that increased their share of the vote (Internet MANA and Conservative) ended up with no seats while the three parties with seats all went backwards (ACT, Maori and UF).

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Dirty Politics, in reply to Paul Campbell,

    Paul, i was told a few years ago that if my children (citizens by descent) lived in NZ for a certain length of time, they could apply for full citizenship. has this changed?

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 642 posts Report Reply

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