Posts by Christopher Nimmo
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Hard News: UPDATED: Media Take: Election…, in reply to Kyle Matthews,
I thought we did have such a provisional roll? I certainly remember being on it two elections ago!
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If the office is in Lower Hutt, and they really have a sitting MP... maybe it's Trevor Mallard?
It would at least be hilarious!
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Hard News: Spring Timing, in reply to Rob Stowell,
The Roy Morgan numbers look pretty soft when it comes to the small parties. On a 997 person survey, a percentage-point is just ten people. So it’s hard to get much from the bouncing around of Mana, Mäori, Conservative and even NZ First numbers (when you’re on 0-3% you’re always in the margin of error :))
I know this was a while back in the thread, and this issue came up on a Pundit thread a while back, but I think it’s always worth pointing out that this isn’t quite right. The margin of error on an individual result in a poll basically depends on how far it is from 50% – only at 50% is the MoE equal to the reported MoE, for all other results it is smaller.
(And this means that if those little results do bounce around wildly then there might be some methodological issues... Or people just can't make up their minds)
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Hard News: The Uses of Dotcom, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
(The interesting thing is that many *National* party voters must have given their electorate votes to Grant rather than Foster-Bell. I assume this is the liberalism / tax dodging conflict manifesting itself, or the sheer repulsiveness of the National candidate)
12.7% of them, as opposed to 3.7% the previous election - seems more likely to be a personal endorsement of his performance than anything else. It would be hard to attribute the rise to "sheer repulsiveness of the National candidate" when the previous National candidate was Stephen Franks...
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Hard News: Local interest, in reply to Russell Brown,
Aaaand … the Generation Zero local voting guide for six cities is now published.
Hmmm... I don't know about any other city's candidates, but I hope nobody pays to much attention to a survey that turns up Bryan Pepperell as a preferred candidate...
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Legal Beagle: Council Elections: STV Q&A, in reply to Brent Jackson,
I reckon it might be that people think there should be a "winner".
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Speaker: You ain't from round here, in reply to tony j ricketts,
There are Green candidates in Eastern and Lambton, so I suppose they wanted to spread things around. I assume that Peter Gilberd is the defacto Green candidate in Northern.
Southern would have had seven locals of course, except that one of them decided to shift up here to Northern at the last minute. Obviously not in a cynical move.
And in the meantime John Morrison does his best to be outrageously sexist and to stop students from voting
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Legal Beagle: Council Elections: STV Q&A, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,
Consider yourself warned, Judith Aitken!
Not to mention that voting for Judith Aitken is just about the worst possible use of your vote even if you really like her - so many other people vote her #1 that by voting for her you are really just giving up 45% of your voting power (on 2010 results) so that other people can give up a tiny fraction more of theirs!
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Hard News: The United States of Surveillance?, in reply to HORansome,
Clearly that's just what the illuminati want you to think!
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And in case anyone wasn’t unnerved by this concept, it adopted this extraordinary logo:
That is the only surprising thing about this entire affair. What were they thinking?