Field Theory: Four Years Ago
262 Responses
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Yamis, in reply to
If we do win, I'm pretty sure that will also instantly make us the most successful team of all time in RWCs, all results considered. I hope that happens and the poms can choke on their choking comments.
Don't know about that. It would only bring us up level with SA and OZ in terms of wins. If you look at a broader view then it's a bit debatable depending on what angle you take.
South Africa have 2 WC wins from 2 less tournaments than us, plus another loss in a final to go with the 03 quarterfinal exit. They've only ever lost two knockout games in 4 tournaments versus the ABs who have lost 5 knockout games in the last 5 tournaments.
In the knockout stages South Africa have won 7 and lost 2, versus the ABs who have won 8 and lost 5.
Even with an AB tournament win this time round I'd say we'd only come up about level with OZ, and perhaps still a touch behind SA.
ALL TIME KNOCKOUT GAME RECORD FOR THE BIG 5
SA: 7 wins, 2 losses
OZ: 9 wins, 4 losses
NZ: 8 wins, 5 losses
Eng: 8 wins, 5 losses
Fra: 8 wins, 6 lossesYou can obviously only add one to your loss column at each tournament from knockout games, but the left column can go up by 1, 2 or 3.
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Webweaver, is there any room behind your cushion? I'm nervous.
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It's...........................................................................only
.........a.................................game............
.....................................................isn't it......? -
David Cormack, in reply to
Yes....but no
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Hadyn Green, in reply to
Webweaver, is there any room behind your cushion? I’m nervous
Four years ago you were hiding in the kitchen "frying anything [you] could lay your hands on". So it's good to see you've moved on :)
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This year I'll be happy with the ABs finishing in the top 10. Anything above that is just gravy.
Too much disappointment in the past, especially against teams that really failed to follow up their great performances against NZ in the semi with decent performances in the next match.
(France were awful against Aus in the 99 final and against England in the 07 semi, Aus let thier league converts throw the game away for them in the 03 final)
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BenWilson, in reply to
Don't know about that. It would only bring us up level with SA and OZ in terms of wins. If you look at a broader view then it's a bit debatable depending on what angle you take.
Yes, I did the sums a few weeks ago, and it was an evaluation not just of wins and losses in the tournament, but also placings. Consider also that if ABs win this time, that means the others have to have losses added into their totals.
However, good point, SA have had two less tourneys. That's something I hadn't counted. It's a little tricky, just off the example of a team that joined for the first time and won the tournament, making their win ratio 100%. Does that really make them the most successful? If you rank boxers, you don't place someone who has won their only fight above a champion of with 30 wins and 1 loss. Mind you, if that one win happens to be against that champ...hmmm tricky.
So yes, it's hard to get ahead of the SA record. But I think it would put us ahead of Oz - they have failed to make the top 4 twice, that's only happened to the ABs once. It would really depend where SA ended.
Interestingly, if France won, it would put them even with the ABs...they have done very well to get into the top 4. 5 out of 6 times. They're the team I'd most like to see win, if NZ doesn't, it would blow the southern hemisphere dominance wide open, and massively invigorate interest in the sport. Also, it would be very poignant, them having lost the final in Eden Park back in 1987. But only if they actually deserve it, of course. The best outcome is always that the team that plays best wins.
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bmk,
I am just happy that I got $2.15 on any team but the All Blacks to win. This is a statistically sound bet as I rate the probability of the All Blacks winning would have to be under 50%.
Place it will make the schadenfreude of their inevitable defeat even sweeter:)
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FWIW, in head to head matches the top 5 have the following RWC records...
South Africa 7 wins, 3 losses
Australia 6 wins, 4 losses
New Zealand 6 wins, 6 losses
England 7 wins, 9 losses
France 7 wins, 3 losses -
That kind of bet is usually an insurance policy. You've upped your risk profile if you're also banking on the schadenfreude. I'm not sure what the German word for "sorrow one feels at missing out on schadenfreude" (verlorenschadenfreudenschade, vielleicht?), but you stand a good chance of feeling that, AND losing your money.
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bmk, in reply to
That kind of bet is usually an insurance policy. You’ve upped your risk profile if you’re also banking on the schadenfreude.
Of course I am actually taking it out as an insurance policy. But I try to tell myself that I don’t want them to win in the perverse and futile hope that this will change the result (funny how easily an otherwise logical person can quickly become superstitious when sports are involved and believe their own actions can somehow influence the result).
Love the idea of a word for “sorrow one feels at missing out on schadenfreude” – that word should exist because it’s a very real phenomenon – many people watch something hoping for schadenfreude only to be disappointed when it doesn’t occur.
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I like the fact that Danielle was right on the money in that thread 4 years ago and Russell was only beaten by Chris Rattue in his wrongness. :)
I also like the fact I was apparently too terrified to even venture a thought on the matter. Still wakes me up at night...
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That's scary reading back over that thread from four years ago.
I can feel the frustration bubbling up again
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Hey hey! Just got confirmation of some giveaways for you lucky folks during the cup. More info soon.
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Danielle, in reply to
So it’s good to see you’ve moved on :)
I think when your first sporting love is the New Zealand cricket team, you can't ever be confident in life. :)
I like the fact that Danielle was right on the money in that thread 4 years ago and Russell was only beaten by Chris Rattue in his wrongness. :)
Yay me! Oh wait, it kinda sucks that I was right. Boo me!
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I received an award at work in Australia in 1999 for being so confident in the All Blacks that I didn't even know they'd been knocked out until I was informed by jeering colleagues as they arrived to find me hard at work, cheerfully oblivious. My actual excuse is I don't take rugby seriously. It's a bit of a laugh, nice to see the ABs win, but mostly about social get-togethers.
The huge sense of national gloom that washes over NZ has never made sense to me - having been a dedicated sportsman myself in my youth, I learned that luck is a big factor. Also from both victories and losses, that the feeling of them fades quite rapidly, and the only really lasting thing is the camaraderie. It was quite strange to beat Wellington in the National Provincial grand final, by one goal, having saved 2 penalties, the culmination of a hard year's training, to find that the glow of the win had faded by nightfall, and I was back to thinking about paying the rent, and what changes I needed to make to some software at work. It might matter a lot more to a professional sportsman, but to an amateur? Nah. To a spectator - why should it matter at all? Time to congratulate the winners, get some drinks, have a chat and a laugh and crack on to some hot chicks, that's all finals ever meant to me. That's what sport is like from the inside - why is it so damned tribal on the outside? When you've got quite literally nothing invested at all other than a teensy bit of national pride, to feel dark depression at the All Blacks losing, rather than just joy that the better team won, and at now being in a party with diverse and interesting company, is a mystery to me. It's like the less truly involved people are, the more they care.
I actually wept with joy when South Africa beat NZ in South Africa. It was a little bit of disappointment, but it was also seeing something far more important happening, that the black president who had no so long ago been imprisoned, was joyously celebrating the win, and the white South Africans could finally feel what it was like to win international tournaments again, now that they had changed their stupid, evil ways. If there was ever any real point in sports, that was it, how could I possibly feel any lasting bitterness?
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recordari, in reply to
I think when your first sporting love is the New Zealand cricket team, you can't ever be confident in life. :)
Harsh, but soooooo true. Keeping the faith becomes an almost religious experience.
But most people expect the ABs to win all the time. I think it will come down to who handles the mental pressure best this time. Including the coaches. Who would you back in that respect?
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Bloody hell Ben, that's a bit philosophical (and correct).
The greatest reason for me wanting the ABs to win is because I'm sick and tired of the effect losing every 4 years in the damn thing has on the rest of our rugby (provincial, Super 15 and test side). I still want us to win though for the pure, unadulterated, orgasmic joy as well of course :)
I'd like us to enjoy our domestic rugby and national team games week to week, not with having this RWC hanging over everything, from affecting who we pick in our nat side with an eye on something years away, to affecting who is and isn't allowed to play in our domestic teams and when.
Winning it won't fix all that but it'll bloody well help because we'd be a bit more relaxed about the next one if we point the shot gun backwards and blow the monkey away.
Anyways prediction for tonight: ABs 44 Tonga 13
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webweaver, in reply to
Webweaver, is there any room behind your cushion? I’m nervous.
Sure! There's room for everyone! I'll just get a bigger cushion....
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This just arrived in my email
Our players who art in black,
hallowed by thy game.
When full time comes,
thy will be done in 2011 as it was in '87.
Give us each game our daily victory
and forgive us our previous shortcomings as we forgive those who coached in '07.
And lead us NOT to knock out round failure, but deliver us from World Cup drought.
In the name of McCaw, Carter and the holy Webb Ellis,Amen.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
The huge sense of national gloom that washes over NZ has never made sense to me – having been a dedicated sportsman myself in my youth, I learned that luck is a big factor.
I’m suspecting cultural cringe plays a big part in such national gloom.
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The queue to get into Queen's wharf stretchs almost to Vector Arena at the moment..
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Drove past Swanson Railway Station at 3:30 and there were cars parked way down the road. They had the right idea though getting to one of the furthest stations guarantees a seat. Unlike at say Ellerslie where I read hundreds have been watching full train after full train go by.
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TV news just told me that trains were stopping.....people pushing the emergency stop button.
What can I say oh north of Bombayites. It IS very Jafa like. Public transport by rail is a novelty. Nothing like a bit of....fun.
Turkeys.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Love it!
Been in and out of downtown. Saw procession and mass haka. Dobbyn on big screens. Crowd, incredible. Huge. Ridiculous. Wonderful. Real buzz.
Took bus in. Luck of Irish ancestry meant 1 min wait, bus full to brim so became express. Walked down albert st had snack. From there it was shoulder to shoulder for the next 3 hours.
Nowhere downtown to eat or drink. Getting cold, met friends. Opted to head back
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