Hard News: Last Words
203 Responses
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Hebe, in reply to
I do tend to think they've ensured they won't have another armchair ride with the media this time though.
Yes. The teapot tits-up has screwed up National's media more than Key can imagine.
My particular media loathing this time around is reserved for Stuff's John Hartevelt; he is so obviously a po0litical baby and swallows the spin without even realising while claiming objectivity. Give me an upfront Tory bastard any day.
If I were voting tactically tomorrow, it would (shudder) be NZ First party vote to get them over the 5% hump and hobble National, and if all the Greens on PA did the same we'd have heaps of Green MPs and National screwed to the wall. But I don't think I can do it without a sickbag..
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Hebe, in reply to
Did he? Oh good.
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James Millar, in reply to
...don’t like government spending (health and education, eh),...
...unless it's for uneconomical white elephant motorway projects that are counterproductive to NZ's long-term economic development and expose our economy to future oil shocks. Those are fine to spend money on.
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
But mostly … it’s the list. This term was the perfect time to clean out the time-servers and give Labour’s new talent three years to find its feet.
This is my dilemma.
I was planning to go Green, because ultimately I want the Greens to move far enough away from the 5% relegation zone to become a long-term safe vote party. I think they’re a good influence in parliament, and hard working in general.
Plus they seem, to me, to have a longer-term forward focus than the “major” parties who are intently focused on winning the next election (although I have been pleased with Labour campaigning on the long view this time).
However, I’m now confident the Greens will do better than previous years. And I don’t know much about the candidates in the “extra” list positions likely to get in for the first time, over and above their current MPs.
So I’m thinking about swinging back to Labour in an attempt to get some of their lower list back in… but it feels like rewarding some who should really have been thinking about stepping aside.
And though he’s performed better than I feared, it’s been too late, so I think keeping Phil Goff has been a tactical error.
But if I’m thinking about that, how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way?
I am pleased to be able to vote for Jacinda in AK central. I’m impressed with her as a candidate.
Not that I think Nikki Kaye is not similarly intelligent etc, but anyone who seems as smart as her, yet aligns herself with the National party must be suffering an empathy deficit, or some other character flaw. That may be my bias showing.
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You know what, Tom, I’m not going to slap you around for buying into that bullshit because I was every bit as deep in the river denial the day before the 2002 election. It’s not pretty to watch, but will pass
it is not just the media I hold to be decadent. I don’t think our politicians have as completely lost their moral compass as a ratings driven fourth estate that preciously stands on principle when its privileges are threatened but also considers Paul Henry to be a suitable commentator on a leaders debate or Michael Laws an excellent radio host or thinks current affairs is best served in prime time with stories of breast enlargements gone wrong.
But none the less, and we can’t get around this, an unfortunate and most insidious byproduct of MMP has been the creation of a decadent class of managerialist politicians who have captured the machinery of our (empowered by MMP with control of the list) elite cadre parties for entirely self-serving ends. I want to retain MMP, but unlike a lot of people I am not that hung up on the mechanism we use to elect our governments. After all, any of the systems on offer – FPP, SM, STV, MMP – can and do produce reasonable electoral outcomes. But if democracy itself is mortally sick – from politicians to the fourth estate – then arguing over MMP vs something else is really akin to arguing over if a Holden or a Ford is the best vehicle for carrying the casket to the cemetery.
We need to seriously address issues of real, organic democracy in this country, from how to re-create mass-participation political parties to reform of the media, party funding and lobbying laws. Otherwise, we will are on a path to revist the 1930s when democracy was seen as discredited in the light of economic crisis and political failure and people will seek other political structures to replace it.
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Greens are getting my party vote. Although some of their policy is anti-science, more of it is evidence-based than any other party. Also, their MPs behave like adults.
I was surprised that this didn't make the MSM :
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00500/ombudsman-points-to-nationals-agenda-for-more-asset-sales.htm
Is it a non-story or just too hard to fact-find on ? -
Apropos the polls -- I think the landline issue is very real. The polling companies claim they correct for this, but they don't say how. I find it hard to imagine a way of doing this that isn't voodoo, because by definition, we know nothing about the preferences of people we cannot contact, and extrapolations from people who are otherwise demographically similar might be very wrong.
Another thing that we should take into account is the very large number of people who simply refuse to participate. Up to half the people rung in a typical polling run, I believe.
If we look at the work of Bryce Edwards' students we see that there is a distinct possibility that polls are both inaccurate AND influential on voter choices. I find this quite worrying. I think polling companies should be required to state the proportion of calls refused, the number of undecideds, and the methods used to weight their samples for demographics.
My plan for tomorrow, assuming I'm not in bed with a burgeoning cold, is to be spending the day at Rongotai Labour HQ, running errands, making tea, reheating sausage rolls, whatever.
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Apropos the polls – I think the landline issue is very real. The polling companies claim they correct for this, but they don’t say how. I find it hard to imagine a way of doing this that isn’t voodoo,
I think what they do is simply weight the opinion of those people they do get on landlines more heavily. For example, if they need 24 beneficiaries under the age of thirty but they can only find twelve who answer a landline, then they just double their opinion weights.
i am open to correction on this, but I think that is what happens.
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Mark Easterbrook, in reply to
Stil, can’t complain about the MP I have. David Shearer, who should canter home in Mt Albert, strikes me as one of the most genuine people I’ve met in politics. He’s hardworking, humble and intelligent.
I had a quick chat with him outside Pak N'Save the other day and that's exactly how I felt too. He seemed to be feeling just a little bit awkward about having to do the handshaking/babykissing stuff, which I think says good things about a politician.
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It might be interesting here in Palmy Vegas. The Nats have gone pretty hard on trying to roll Lees-Galloway but it has been so long between drinks for them that you have to wonder about how much real chance they have but they got to within 1,000 vote last time. Certainly the National candidate has been very noticeable around the town but I dunno whether that translates into votes.
I think that after 9 years of the last Labour government and the shambolic last year, in particular, people were entitled to a change but enough, eh? How much more do we have to endure to know that this is the same old slash and burn National party. Nice suit, lovely hair but why are you carrying a flame-thrower? -
James Butler, in reply to
But if I’m thinking about that, how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way?
If you're thinking that, don't you also have to think about how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Green? Or how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Labour? (:
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webweaver, in reply to
The Greens got my party vote
Craig, you have no idea how inordinately happy I felt when I read this. You rock!
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Russell Brown, in reply to
I had a quick chat with him outside Pak N’Save the other day and that’s exactly how I felt too. He seemed to be feeling just a little bit awkward about having to do the handshaking/babykissing stuff, which I think says good things about a politician.
I mentioned on Twitter that I'd seen him doing the same outside the Pt Chev Countdown and someone said they'd seen him a few days before, planting trees down at Oakley Creek. On his own. No crowd, no photo-op.
I think that says a lot about the man.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Good Lord, if DPF’s latest hysterical attack on Winston Peters isn’t proof NZ First is over the 5% threshold according to National’s internal polling I don’t know what is.
I think Farrar tipped over into the simply maniacal about two weeks ago.
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I think I'll be voting King/Greens in my Rongotai zone. I'd like to vote for Russell Norman (people named Russell rule after all...and Norman is just #nzmusic #mint topical) but I have always thought that King was a decent politician and I fear a big split vote in this hood (I am surrounded by hippy loonies everyday; they are the young parents of my peer group and my good friends).
This whole campaign has been so strange. Neither Goff nor Key have the oratorial presence of Lange, Muldoon or Clarke or even Bolger for that matter. I think Goff is much better in front of a live audience than a TV one. In saying that he took the debates seriously and Key did not. I don't like Nationals policies on many levels but it's the arrogance of that man that really freaks me out. He used to perform as the nice guy to distract the centrists from what English was up too. He's lost his composure over the teapot tapes and just seems to be generally a bit pissy and sick of campaigning. He is polling so high he just sort of doesn't want to lose as opposed to trying to win. He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99...but Labour aren't France me thinks.
Ah well. It's a bit awful for a liberal wimp such as myself. Luckily people like Toby Manhire, Hayden East, David Slack, Keith Ng and Russell have been so entertaining on twitter during the whole campaign. How come it's all guys getting super crazed over the election in my twitter feed, is it like RWC part 2? Not that the numerous women I follow aren't talking about the election, they just seem less umm insane....
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
If you’re thinking that, don’t you also have to think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Green? Or how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Labour? (:
Yep. Recursive.
This is about the point I remind myself that one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction.
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
... it’s the arrogance of that man that really freaks me out. He used to perform as the nice guy to distract the centrists from what English was up too. He’s lost his composure over the teapot tapes and just seems to be generally a bit pissy and sick of campaigning. He is polling so high he just sort of doesn’t want to lose as opposed to trying to win. He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99…but Labour aren’t France me thinks.
Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28, and the ref looked the other way for the first half. And has been trying to apply penalties equally, so as not to appear biased.
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Party vote Greens. Here in Wigram the electorate vote doesn't mean much, but that's ended up gong to the Green candidate as well. Keep MMP with STV as an alternative.
For the detailed reasoning behind my votes - here's one I prepared earlier -
Good Lord, if DPF’s latest hysterical attack on Winston Peters isn’t proof NZ First is over the 5% threshold according to National’s internal polling I don’t know what is.
It could also be a very reliably indication that Peters has a blindingly obvious track record of being a divisive, toxic and unreliable presence in every government he's been a part of. Just to throw a crazy idea out there.
We need to seriously address issues of real, organic democracy in this country, from how to re-create mass-participation political parties to reform of the media, party funding and lobbying laws. Otherwise, we will are on a path to revist the 1930s when democracy was seen as discredited in the light of economic crisis and political failure and people will seek other political structures to replace it.
Since I doubt Russell wants to have to charge up the cattle prod of loving correction today, I'll just say I find your analogy fundamentally flawed.
The Nats have gone pretty hard on trying to roll Lees-Galloway but it has been so long between drinks for them that you have to wonder about how much real chance they have but they got to within 1,000 vote last time.
As I understand it, boundary changes have made Palmerston North more marginal on paper - but I think National would be pretty pleased if Leonie Hapeta shaved Lees-Galloway's majority back to three figures and won the party vote.
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FletcherB, in reply to
I think question 2 is wrong.” Under which system do you vote for a party and an electorate MP?”
correct answer PV!?
I've just re-taken it and they have corrected it... SM&MMP it is...
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Heather Gaye, in reply to
(**FULL DISCLOSURE**: The Greens got my party vote. Got a problem with that? Tell someone who gives a shit – that ain’t me.)
au contraire, I want to give you a big hug, although you'd likely find that equally offensive. It's confirmed every good thing I already believed about you, for what that's worth. Is there a "happy tears" emoticon?
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Sacha, in reply to
Norman is just #nzmusic #mint topical
heh
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Sacha, in reply to
one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction
+1
or even just convince people to vote
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oh yeah...and this was awesome; what the two major party leaders were thinking about at the same moment this morning;
https://dl-web.dropbox.com/get/Public/IMG_6121.jpg?w=02601469
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I think that the Greens should get everyone's party vote. To keep the other bastards honest.
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