Posts by Russell Brown
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Josh Marshall says:
The Obama folks say they're expecting a turnout of 207k, which would be at the highest end of expectations.
I think 2004 was around 120k and that was considered a high turnout caucus.
From a comment on Election Central:
What's rural and what's not in Iowa? I don't mean that flippantly, but Des Moine District 53 just went overwhelmingly for Obama and Edwards. In a room of something like 375 people, only 74 went for Hillary.
Hmmm ...
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TPM Election Central is good too:
Right now, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards are basically in a statistical dead heat -- each has roughly 32%, with 513 of 1,751 precincts reporting.
A caveat: The small, rural precincts report first, which is why Edwards has been ahead for the early part of the evening. Now they're effectively tied, but it seems likely that the dynamic will shift soon..
Huckabee well ahead of Romney on the other side.
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As for the Republicans - Huckabee or Romney? Gee, gonnorhea or syphilis? Would be nice if McCain makes a credible showing (despite pretty much joining Guiliani in passing on Iowa and New Hampshire) because he's about the only person in the GOP field who isn't barking mad.
It's been interesting to see how many people -- especially liberals -- have talked up Ron Paul because of his anti-war stance without actually knowing anything much about him.
It's not just the usual endearingly bonkers policies you might expect from a doctrinaire libertarian -- it's the not-so-long-ago out-and-out racism dug up by Kos, including his declaration that "I think we can safely assume that 95% of the black males in [Washington DC] are semi-criminal or entirely criminal."
Another Kos diarist has more from the Ron Paul Political Report, Paul's former newsletter, including a link to the full text of Paul's staggeringly racist essay on the Los Angeles riots, which opens thus:
**LOS ANGELES RACIAL TERRORISM**
The Los Angeles and related riots mark a new era in American cultural, political, and economic life. We now know that we are under assault from thugs and revolutionaries who hate Euro-American civilization and everything it stands for: private property, material success for those who earn it, and Christian morality.
Dude is bad crazy.
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Russell, enjoyed your spiel on RNZ National this morning. You saw Sun Ra, you lucky, lucky man.
That's how I felt about it. It was sheer, unfathomable musical joy.
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It is the secrecy of donantions, the hidden paybacks and then the subsequent lying about that funding that is "smells" and "reeks".
Yeah, that's an interesting one. The original Herald story stated Robertson's donation to National as a fact, but National's campaign manager told TV3 in 2005 that "There are no cheques from Americans".
I didn't approve of Mallard's stunt in 2005 because he claimed without benefit of evidence that Julian Robertson had been buying favours. It's the same claim lots of Kiwibloggers have merrily made this week about Glenn, also without benefit of evidence.
But on the issue of whether Robertson was or was not a National donor ... well, someone's not right.
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And now you're using a partisan review of a work of pulp fiction by Michael Crichton?!
Google it. State of Fear is endlessly cited by "sceptics" as if it were something other than an airport novel. It's bizarre.
Peter Doran's NYT op-ed about Crichton's misuse of his research is worth reading.
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I would go so far as to say – and I would say this, even to Russell's face – that it's sexier than Macs.
Perhaps I should whack Ubuntu onto my iMac too (can I install and boot it from an external drive?). I feel like such a dweeb for finally running Windows, but it's Vista and it's like, dude, nobody's using that shit.
Still, my iMac definitely runs Vista better than the brand-new PC we got the kids ...
Oh, and interestingly, MacOS X is up over 16% of traffic on PA this month. The difference between home and office traffic, presumably ...
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Something I learned today: The Golden Compass blows goats.
My kids thought the same thing. The younger one was appalled.
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A couple more articles on GW that have appeared recently
The first one catalogues the temps of the last year which don't exactly scream GW.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071219/COMMENTARY/10575140
The comment about hurricanes is obviously of more interest to me as I live here on the Gulf coast. After the big K, according to the GW alarmists Katrina was supposed to presage more large storms due to GW, we were all going to get whacked by bigger storms more frequently. Even the Goracle put a satellite picture of Katrina on the cover of his Michael Moorish load of drivel, "The Inconvenient Truth". The only inconvenient truth for the GW alarmists is that we didn't have to evacuate for a hurricane once over the last 2 seasons. Most unusual.
Er, yeah. They weren't so lucky in Jamaica and several other Carribean countries, which suffered billions of dollars worth of damage from two very large hurricanes. From Pew:
What is in store for the 2007 hurricane season?
The Climate Prediction Center forecasts much above normal hurricane activity for 2007:
13-16 named tropical storms
7-9 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)
As of November 2, the North Atlantic has seen the following activity:14 named tropical storms
5 total hurricanes
2 major hurricanes (both category 5)Not so far off, really. And there is simply no doubt that, for whatever reason you choose, hurricane activity in the north Atlantic has increased radically since 1996, going far beyond the historical peak in the 1950s. Here's the graph.
You'll note that it's a rolling 10 year mean, not a single season. And that's why the Washington Times story is a piece o' crap: it does exactly what the NYT story you leaked to first warned against: pronouncing on long-term projections on the basis of short-term observation.
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RB, by your normal logic, any trust formed by a holy Trinity of evil, such as conservative, Christian oilmen (how bad can you get!!) would automatically be discredited and anything they say must automatically be wrong.
What has changed?
Nothing has changed. Pew is an excellent organisation with high standards, and I've learned to place trust in it. That's the point.
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