I’ve been trying to write something about this (and on balance, think I’m going to hold off until next week, and see where it goes) but I stand by what I said on Twitter:
The problem with 1st night of #HopeAndWire is that it’s a docudrama that isn’t much of a documentary, and only fitfully works as drama.
And, God, I know the “straight to camera” monologue is a device Preston has used before, and well, but more often than not it felt like I was not only being talked AT but DOWN to. Was I supposed to want to slap Comrade Theoden and Uptight Merivale Mum as often as I did? "Show don't tell" is a very sound principle, and one writers as experienced as Dave Armstrong & Preston shouldn't have to be reminded off. Especially when you've got a cast who can carry it when they're given the chance.
Something that didn't come up in discussion on the show is that, while the NZ Polling Code is binding on all members of the Research Association, it has no jurisdiction over media organisations.
That's true, in the sense that an act of industry self-regulation has no jurisdiction over how that data is reported. But last time I looked, all broadcasters are subject to the relevant Codes of Broadcasting Standards, and the provisions of the Broadcasting Act.
I don't know about the first sentence there, Sacha, but the math on the rest is hardly that complicated. I'm in one of the safest National electorates in the country, and anyone who thinks Maggie Barry is going to lose this seat need to step away from the P pipe, the magic 'shrooms and the three martini liquid breakfasts.
But there's the other column to think about.
Three years ago Barry managed to increase both National's party vote and the party vote share on a very slightly higher turn out. Winning 62% of the party vote on a 50% turnout... not so useful. It's really not rocket science that National can't take North Sore for granted any more than Labour can Mangere.
Its almost like he is saying “The polls are rigged to make us look good, don’t believe it” something I have suspected for years but if Steven Joyce says so then…
Oh, come on Steve. Sounds precisely like exactly the same message National was sending at the last election year conference: “Take a deep breath, don’t be complacent and stay focused on the only poll that’s going to deliver this Government a third term.”
Which sounds exactly what Joyce should be saying to an election year party conference. I also have no doubts that unless the polls start moving sharply in Labour's favour, every speaker at that conference is going to be ringing equally unsurprising variations on “bugger the pollsters with a well-lubricated horse cock, we’re in this to win it.”
Which means they need a big chunk of the potential market to turn up, leading to a situation where it's always going to be hard to make money and unlike say Glastonbury, which attracts a good percentage of reasonably on to it music fans, BDO has to rely on attracting a large munter contingent to make up the numbers.
Um, OK... It's also a lot easier to make money if you're charging Glastonbury prices - £210 ($407) this year. (I also have a sneaking suspicion the BBC isn't getting any of this access for free.) I suspect you don't have to be a "munter" to end up doing a pretty stringent cost/benefit analysis on spending that kind of cash on any music festival in New Zealand.
However, I do think we could do worse than have a serious discussion about the roll polling, especially the reporting of polls, plays in our political culture.
Fair enough -- hell, for me the fundamental problem with polls is they all begin with "If an election was held today..." Well, it's not so I struggle to see the point of the whole exercise, and the only poll that actually counts is going on in a country that doesn't allow exit polling. And that's as it should be, IMNSHO: E-Day isn't about the politicians, and the pollsters and the media. It's about the electors.
This reminds me of the last time I spoke to Helen Clark. I said the polls were so wrong and judging by what l could see, Labour should have been polling around 38%, this was 2008, she agreed but then said “trouble is, many people not only believe the polls, they tend to follow them”. “like sheep” I said.
You know, an awful lot of Tories (myself included) were singing the same fucking song at the same pity party in 2002 -- you know, the general election where all the polls were pointing towards National getting its lowest share of the popular vote in the party's history.
Yeah, blame the "biased media" and the "sheeple" but the ugly truth is even with Corngate blowing up in the Government's face, National was ill-disciplined, ran a lousy campaign with a platform nobody could take seriously while sober at a time where, like it or not, people were feeling generally OK with what the Government was doing. I thought otherwise, but you know what? 41.26% of the electorate felt otherwise at the only poll that counted.
The Herald editorial uses 539 words before it finally gets to this:
We regret having reported inflated and conflated dollar figures.
Well, that's a damn sight better than the precisely zero words (as far as I know) expended on a retraction and apology for the allegations that Len Brown pressured the Auckland City Art Gallery into being a parking garage for his mistress.
Can we have a little more maturity this time, there is too much at stake for this kind of non productive behavior.
This probably doesn’t need to be relitigated, but it’s funny how that “maturity” always seems to be demanded of Greens and not of Labour supporters who start screeching “splitters” every damn time the Greens stake out a contrary position, or fail to be properly thankful for getting sledged by the likes of Damien O’Connor and Shane Jones.
I’m quite probably going to party vote Green again, but Labour’s sure doing nothing to woo me with the passive-aggressive condescension.
Well, that’s certainly a much more comfortable platform from which to lecture, but that’s not what our show is, or has ever been. We’ve always made a point of talking to media creators and decision-makers.
And frankly, you don’t have to be Andrew Bolt to find ABC’s Media Watch can be a little circle jerky and not particularly insightful into how and why things happen.