No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, and 538 rate it as the third most likely tipping point state
And given that Trump has made a strong pitch to left-behinds in Rust Belt states like Ohio, it’s a plausible scenario. He’s a master at peddling snake oil, and politics is no exception. In this case, he’s basically promised the Rust Belters that he’ll bring back the car plants & steelworks, while conveniently ignoring that his clothing merchandise is made by the same Mexicans he wants to wall off, and by the same Chinese he wants to tariff.
Finally, although the RNCinCLE is the gift that keeps on giving, this:
The Republican Party nominated Donald Trump as its candidate for president of the United States - and I responded by ending my 44-year GOP membership.
I hope his feeling spreads.
Then again, Pipes endorsed Ted Cruz, who's equally insane as Trump but for different reasons.
But elections aren't won or lost off convention week dead cat poll bounces. They're won on the ground, and I'm not seeing any evidence that Trump's ground game isn't (to use one of his favourite sneers) "low energy."
If Trump somehow manages to win, it'll be over issues that have been brewing over the past generation or two. A big part of it has been that the traditional working class as we know it has splintered into the following:
- The working-class heroes who've kept the faith, as sung about by Bruce Springsteen. Under threat of becoming an endangered species.
- The nouveau riche, who've joined the establishment and tell the rest of us, "I've got mine, so eff you!"
- The precariat, who've fallen off the ladder, given up all hope and accepted their lot in life. Prone to non-voting out of sheer cynicism and disillusionment.
- The neo-nativists who've fallen off the ladder and blame the reds/greens/yellows/blacks/browns/pinks/rainbows for it. They think Donald Trump will reopen the Detroit car plants and Pennsylvania steelworks, and make Mexico pay for the border wall. Cut from the same cloth as those who smashed up Japanese cars in the 1980s, if they aren't the exact same people.
Here in the UK, too. Our new unelected PM, when some MPs spoke up against the renewal of Trident in the debate yesterday, had this in response: “Sadly...some members of the Labour party, seem to be the first to defend the country’s enemies”.
Theresa May's remarks on nuclear strikes echo Ted Cruz wanting to find out "if sand can glow in the dark". She sounds even more hardline than Maggie Thatcher and David Cameron combined, and it's not just defence and foreign affairs.
A crash would definitely jolt the economy out of something, but I don't know what it would jolt it into. It could something much worse.
One possible scenario is that those who are too narcissistic and born-to-rule to get the message if/when the bubble bursts could go full-on Trump or even Weimar Republic. They'll continue to blame anything and everything for the sudden loss of their wealth, except themselves.
I liken it to a financial equivalent of the Ku Klux Klan, which went out of its way to bring back the old order in the American South following the Civil War.
Ironically a crash also goes a long way to restoring faith in free markets, the much vaunted "correction", setting everything to rights again.
And because what we have right now isn't much of an actual free market. I worked out early on that it's more like a rentier system where those lucky enough to inherit wealth and/or get in 20+ years ago wilfully pull up the ladder behind them, and then have the cheek to lecture the rest of us about "honest hard work".
There is a norovirus outbreak at the Republican National Congress. To be fair, uncontrollable vomiting and loss of bowel control would be a reasonable response to the contents of the convention's first day.
"This is insane," I tweeted yesterday as I watched three people get up and tell their stories under the banner 'Victims of Illegal Immigrants', but it was in keeping with the constant tone of fear and hatred that underscored the day's theme of Make America Safe Again.
How long before they start blaming undocumented (and disgruntled) migrants for conspiring to poison them? Or the OSHA/FDA officials who try to prevent it happening in the first place?
A 40% correction would take almost all of our equity. We’d just hang on. There would be a certain justice in it, since that 40% represents gains that we made for nothing more than buying back in the noughties and holding on. It might bring property prices back to the affordable range for young families. So long as they still have jobs, something it’s hard for me to see as likely if the economy had just taken a hit of that magnitude.
A great deal of it is likely driven by those who haven’t learned much from Chase Corp and Equiticorp. It's gotten to the point where a hyper-correction is the only thing that'll jolt them out of Nero-grade denial.
Look, I live in Sydney because there are relatively few people doing my sort of work in NZ and if I want one of those jobs I’d have to be willing to live in Wellington or Auckland on half the money I get now.
A big contributing factor is that those in a position to invest in NZ's productive sector have instead put everything into the housing bubble since the 1987 Crash, and the fact that DFC NZ had no serious replacement after it collapsed.
The problem in this case really is that "the people", specifically, those who vote in council elections, don't want intensification. The people who want that generally don't live where it's proposed to happen. Which is one problem that the super-council is designed to solve. I think there is a real need for larger-scale planning than we get with lots of little sub-city councils. But at the same time, anything the democracy-hating elitists want strikes me as a bad idea purely for that reason.
Once again, Generation Rentier wants it both ways. They're happy to preach the virtues of von Hayek/von Mises and the vices of Big Government to the rest of us, but they're equally happy to use Big Government to shift the goal posts when it suits them. All they're doing is sending the message that honest hard work counts for nothing, and dumb luck and knowing all the right people is everything.
Call me nihilistic, but I look forward to the day the bubble burst jolts Generation Rentier back to reality. That is, if they don't dig deeper into denial and go full-on Trump.