Posts by Yamis

  • OnPoint: Sunlight Resistance, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The one that did creep me out was the bookending of traffic reports on Radio Live and ZB with “party vote National” ads. This was in the middle of the news, with the electoral ad spoken by the same announcer who gave the traffic information, almost in the same breath.

    She was a swing voter. When I first heard her (it was a female the times I heard) she started "Vote NZ First, delays on the north western motorway after a 3 sheep pile up at Westgate, Vote NZ First, endorsed by blah blah", and then in the afternoon "Vote National, traffic is running smoothly on the ... vote National..."

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    It would be interesting to see what percentage of dairy farms are profitable at various levels of payout. I’m guessing there are a few for which $5.30 doesn’t cover the mortgage, and a lot more at $4.

    One of the articles linked to earlier said that farm operating costs alone came to about $4 or a little over in some cases. So even a farm with zero debt would struggle to deal with that for too long. But around 90% of NZ dairy farms do have debt of some sort to service going by the graph that was at the top of aforementioned article. It’s back a few pages

    (edit, page 11). Article below…
    http://agrihq.co.nz/article/no-bonanza-to-debt-laden-farmers

    and Winston Peters is quick to jump on this issue...
    http://agrihq.co.nz/article/surprised-peters-suspects-milk-conspiracy?p=

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The humanity,

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Dylan Reeve,

    But that’s countered by the common sense idea that working harder earns more money. A lower minimum wage “creates more jobs” which increases competition making thus naturally driving up wages.

    Makes no sense to me. If it were true then countries without minimum wages for decades would all be earning shitloads by now since they must have high rates of employment and mass competition. They aren't. They are by and large earning miserable amounts of money.

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Five further thoughts, in reply to Dylan Reeve,

    I honestly can’t see any good reason to have published polls like that during the election.

    It's probably a bit like band wagon sports fans suddenly deciding they are a fan of a team that just happens to win a lot (purely coincidental of course ;) ).

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Five further thoughts,

    1. Christ, what a shellacking. Click around Harkanwal Singh’s Herald interactive. In electorate after electorate, polling place after polling place, National won at least a plurality of the votes. Even where voters collectively chose to return their Labour MPs to Parliament, they generally gave their party votes to National. Labour won the party vote in only five general electorates. I don’t think it’s viable for Cunliffe to stay on after this.

    Labour won 24.69% of the party vote but won 38.03% of the electorates (27 from 71). Up 5 from 2011 where they won 22 from 70.

    National won 42 from 70 in 2011, and 41 from 71 in 2014.

    So:
    2011
    Party vote Labour 27.5% vs National 47.3%
    Electorate wins Labour 31.4% vs National 60%

    2014
    Party vote Labour 24.7% vs National 48.06%
    Electorate wins Labour 38% vs National 57.7%

    So whilst Labour's party vote dropped a few percent their candidates did better than 3 years ago partly at the expense of the Maori Party but also National saw a little dip. That's probably more fuel for the problem being a lack of leadership for Labour. As in leader + policy.

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Five further thoughts,

    Does anybody know how many eligible voters are in the Maori electorates? And what is the rough number of people in each electorate across the country? Is it about 35,000 ??? Just curious because from my perusal of the Auckland electorates the safe (understatement) National seats were all getting around 30,000 turning out vs around 22 to 23,000 in places like Mangere, Manurewa, Manukau East... While the Maori turnouts were around 17-18,000.

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Show some decency,

    Buy a house.

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Show some decency,

    2002
    Labour: 41.26%
    National: 20.93%
    NZ First: 10.38%
    Act: 7.14%
    Green: 7%
    UF: 6.69%
    Prog: 1.70%
    others 4.89%

    Here’s a fun game. Look at the current polls with National around 48% and Labour 27% and shuffle those numbers.

    At the end of it there’s probably about 5-7% sitting in National that Labour could nick (given 7% or so has shifted to the Greens).

    margin of error: +/- 4 bourbans

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Big Bang,

    Roast dove anybody?

    Since Nov 2006 • 875 posts Report Reply

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