Events dear boy, etc.
Coming up at some point soon, for example, is the whole water rights debate around Iwi and the Treaty and what 'ownership' means and how any such Iwi ownership will be recognised by the government, if at all.
How ACT, Labour, National, NZF and the Maori Party choose to answer those questions will obviously affect many of these questions.
Could be the Maori Party walks from the coalition. Could be Labour shoots its Maori voters in the back and itself in the foot. Could be the National supports its Maori party ally and ACT and National pick up votes from National's core. Could be something else.
"who couldn’t actually say what the TPPA was or why they were against it."
That's nothing mate.
When Clark was PM succesive National Party leaders were organising protests about the Foreshore and Seabed claiming Iwi were going to stop people having bbqs on the beach. What was that all about?
'We on the right have been observing "Key Derangement Syndrome" for years, and have been calling it by that name for almost as many years"
Yeah, like much of the NZ online right's lines you lifted it straight from the GOP. Just be careful you don't trump yourselves. :)
Best outcome is that the current flag wins, but only just. Therefore the narrative can focus on there being a general appetite for changing the flag, but not to this design.
This may mean I vote for the new flag. Even though I hate it.
Worst outcome is that Starry Fern wins, but only just, on a turnout of under 70%. Be careful how you go :)
I think there are a few groups of voters that Labour could think about
1) NZF voters that want to change the government. Think of them as 'Labour leaning NZF', or "anti-National NZF' or whatever.
2) National party voters who really don't like Winston Peters. There's a lot of them, and some aren't available to Labour, but I wonder how many of that shift from Lab --> National in 08 switched partly because Key ruled Winston out. The people who don't like Winston's race baiting and general antics.
(The soft National party voters who think a NZF/Lab/Greens govt wouldn't be stable also fit in here somewhere. National hammers the left on this, it was their whole campaign last time aside from 'cuspy sepcial dotcom sux')
3)The RW National Party voters who might vote for NZF but don't because they hate Labour/Greens and don't want to end up voting for that.
So, burn down Winston's fence.
Target his current voters (1) by telling them a vote for NZF is probably a vote for National. The more it gets said the more 1's might shift to Labour and 3's from National to NZF.
If a NZF National govt starts to look likely, those 2's might shift.
the centre isn't sitting there, you have to create one. The centre is just 'those voters who swung' and you have to give them reasons to swing. And not all of them about policy eh.
Obviously you need an issue to get them moving, to make the distancing from NZF seem real enough to convince those voters that they will need to change their vote to get what they want. Look at what NZF and the right wing of National agree on, that the liberal Nat voters don't like. Iwi water rights are coming up and the Nat back bench is starting to squark.
And Labour owes the Maori seats some love. Winston's fence delenda est.
My position remains that Labour should burn down Winston's fence.
Guessing what he'll do, trying to assign probabilities, maintain relations, and all that jazz is useless. I don't think even he knows what he will do until after the election. Until the election he will make that clear. This attracts voters from both 'sides', if you like.
I suspect, and you'd know more than I, that a good chunk of his base don't like National, but don't want the Greens. Others don't really care between Lab and Nat and just like Winston.
For voters who do have a pref between Lab and Nat, the risk of voting for Winston needs to be made explicit. Labour sidling up to NZF and playing nice diminishes that message and makes voting NZF seem safe for voters who don't like National. Make them choose between their dislike of the Greens and their dislike of National by saying a vote for NZF is probably a vote for National.
That message, if sent strongly and consistently, should see (if I'm right) some small shift from NZF to LAB. And possibly a shift from NAT to NZF if they can be seen as a less risky vote for NATS. Which would be a nice dynamic to have.
Winston's fence delenda est
I don't understand why Key being away stops this being an issue. There will be an acting PM, and a Minister of FA&Trade.
My guess, is probably not.
I'm wondering if Paddy Gower is following this. 'You told me this, but Oh Noes', is pretty much his brand.
Not the Courts
People wave it at sports events, it’s on the gravestones of soldiers overseas, people will be excited about it and want to own it (with an aside about how New Zealanders are patriotic but don’t show it, but if we had a nice new flag with a fern on it, then everyone would want to wave one all the time).
This seems to be the spiel, I saw someone tweeting this morning that he was making similar noises at some event or other.
Hooton makes a similar argument about Ferns flying at rugby games and I think I've seen a DPF post along similar lines. They recall that at the last world cup plenty of kiwis flew the fern and think that it's because we are embarrassed by our flag, or something like that.
I think a more obvious explanation is that we fly the fern at All Blacks matches because we are attending as rugby mad All Blacks fans. Being a NZer is part of that, it's related for sure, but the fern isn't a substitute for the national flag at test matches; it's the All Blacks symbol. We fly it for that reason. And that sponsors usually give versions away free at the gate.
And the thing about putting the new flag on all our products if it's a fern is similar. I'm not convinced that many people will ditch their own fern designs to put the national flag on their goods. It's just odd thinking. Not the oddest thing I've seen this week, but only coz I just watched a Republican primary debate.