Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Poll Crunch

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  • Rich of Observationz,

    <QUOTE>FFS, people, it was a close election not something important like the All Blacks getting knocked out of the RWC!</quote>

    Yeah, that happens every four years. Elections are every three.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    And PA tags are case sensitive.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    I’m struggling to understand what Peter Dunne’s on. Not much common sense any more it would appear.

    Surely UF’s main selling point was as a “flexible” party. One that would appeal to voters who didn’t particularly mind which of the main parties governed, but didn’t want to see Greens or ACT hold cabinet posts.

    So what’s he done throwing his hat in with the Nats?

    And now he’s done that why would anyone vote for him instead of the Nats?

    If you didn’t know better you’d think this was all about him retaining his electorate seat….

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    McCain said the c word on live US TV.

    Priceless. Perfect Freudian slip, the Credit C*&@.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Gareth Ward,

    The court documents quoted the two men as saying that they would dress up in white tuxedos and top hats then drive their car as fast as possible toward Senator Obama, shooting at him from the windows.

    Oh man, I wish they had. Not succeeded of course but LORDY that would have been a magnificent Vaudevillian sight...

    Auckland, NZ • Since Mar 2007 • 1727 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    I suppose I'll be accused of seeing a conspiracy, but the Herald's editorial line is just to convenient. To me it has to be seen in the context of what seems to be an ongoing campaign. First, get rid of Labour. Then repeal the EFA and make sure untrammeled wealth can buy the next result they are after - getting rid of MMP, which NatActoid's loath for denying them power and for giving the untermenschen to much say by half. Then the Herald can relax, with country presumably safely in the hands of a scaled up version of the CitRats.


    The use of the "white woman attacked by the black man" as a catalyst for brutal lynchings and all-out racial war has a long and disgusting history in the United States. It is really scary to see it wheeled out now. It is almost certain that had this woman not been so obviously disturbed, there are plenty of white Americans only to ready to believe such a story. I am sadly coming to the view that the U.S. RWNJ rantings (all, one must sadly relate, faithfully echoed chapter and verse here in NZ amongst the proudly credulous right wing blogsphere), semi-endorsed by the McCain-Palin campaign has sent the signal that ending Obama's life is an acceptable election option for some of their more crazed followers.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2213 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    If you didn’t know better you’d think this was all about him retaining his electorate seat….

    Don't know what you mean, LegBreak. My contacts in the electorate formerly known as Ohariu-Belmont, sure aren't telling me anything's changed.

    So what’s he done throwing his hat in with the Nats?

    Clutch your pearls, girls, because I'm going to give a poli the benefit of the doubt here. I think Dunne is being perfectly honest that, in his view, any plausible Labour-lead government will be neither inclined, nor able, to progress the issues he sees as priorities. He certainly wouldn't be bringing a particularly strong hand to the table either.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    The biggest accomplishment of the McCain / Palin campaign is that it has managed to make Hillary’s effort look dignified.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Classic even better one: "Rates were C*&$ in the Bush years". Also Freudian.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    I suppose I'll be accused of seeing a conspiracy

    Where did you get that crazy idea from, Tom? :)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    He certainly wouldn't be bringing a particularly strong hand to the table either.

    The table that Peter Dunne would bring a strong hand to hasn't been invented yet. Try Ikea.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    Craig

    What waka has Jeanette ever jumped from/off? As far as I recall she's always been a Green Party member, whether inside or outside the Alliance. (And the decision of the Greens to leave said Alliance was made by the entire membership, not the Green Parliamentary caucus, as I recall?)

    Leg Break

    So what’s he done throwing his hat in with the Nats?

    And now he’s done that why would anyone vote for him instead of the Nats?

    It's quite bizarre. Given he had a majority of over 7000 last time, I don't think his seat is at all at risk.

    But yes, now it's clear to anyone who was pondering UF for their party vote (all 3 of them, haha): if you want National, you may as well vote National -- if you want Labour, you definitely shouldn't vote for UF.

    He's sure to be overhang now.....

    Oh the irony.

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

  • Danyl Mclauchlan,

    So what’s he done throwing his hat in with the Nats?

    Dunne hates the Greens and any Labour government would have a very strong Green component. I'm also guessing that Dunne will have a better cabinet post than Minister of Revenue under Key. The Nats don't have much talent these days (although they might get some good people this time round) and Dunne is a safe pair of hands to give a tricky portfolio to.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    But yes, now it's clear to anyone who was pondering UF for their party vote (all 3 of them, haha): if you want National, you may as well vote National -- if you want Labour, you definitely shouldn't vote for UF.

    Yes, but if you're a centrist and are afraid that National might cozy up too much with Act, you vote for the moderating influence and the Socratic wonder that is United Future.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    What waka has Jeanette ever jumped from/off?

    I think it would be fair comment to say that whatever strained and rather awkward group-hugging went on last night, there's still some bitterness around the Alliance split. Anderton floats though life in a bubble of serene, doubt-free self-righteousness I'm not sure whether to envy or hold in contempt.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • JohnAmiria,

    I'm loving the merry dance that the Maori Party are doing. Leading might be a better word, since they are indeed in charge. Does anyone seriously think they won't go with Labour? Sure, (it is said) that Tariana has never forgiven Helen for making her duck down and hide in the back seat of the ministerial car after the last election, but they will be the kingmakers this election and they know it.

    Labour will entrench the Maori seats (Rodney would too, it seems) and quite possibly make one of them Maori Affairs Minister (and why not, if they clean bowl the Maori seats?) which wouldn't be a bad thing.

    I just hope they (the Labour led coalition) don't mess with the GST thing.

    hither and yon • Since Aug 2008 • 215 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    Yes, but if you're a centrist and are afraid that National might cozy up too much with Act, you vote for the moderating influence and the Socratic wonder that is United Future.

    Perhaps, but that notion of a moderating influence used to apply to Labour-oriented centrists too.

    Dunne's announcement now rules that out. So the potential appeal of UF for the party vote has been approximately halved.

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    I think Dunne is being perfectly honest that, in his view, any plausible Labour-lead government will be neither inclined, nor able, to progress the issues he sees as priorities.

    And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22758 posts Report Reply

  • Danyl Mclauchlan,

    And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

    Yes, if things look grim now imagine where we'd be without the Families Commission.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report Reply

  • Greg Sands,

    The trouble arises with parties that are happy to swing both ways - i.e. MP, NZF. Perhaps one solution would be that, post-election, they must (at the very least) offer confidence and supply to the largest of the blocks (Nat/Act/UF or Lab/Green/Prog) who have had the decency to let the voters know exactly where they stand. That would at least get rid of Winston's dithering from a couple of elections back, and voters would know how their vote would count.

    One thing that is being made obvious this election is that those who are happy for the overhang to distort the balance of power are solely pro-MMP, and not genuinely supportive of proportional representation itself - the system has become more important than the philosophy it attempts to deliver, at least if it gives what I want! If it works this way at this election, it would make (theoretical) sense for a main party (say Nats) to form two separate parties - one of electorate-only candidates (say called National Independents) and one only on the party list (say National Party) with very similar colours/logos etc. One could almost argue that Labour have done this already with the Progressives - they now just need to transfer all their safe electoral candidates into Jim's party.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 8 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    I'm loving the merry dance that the Maori Party are doing.

    It was a truly beautiful moment when Turia was asked who she "got on" with. "I get alone with John Key and {a slight pause} Helen Clark." And she did it with a perfectly straight face. Damn, I do not want to play high stakes poker with that woman. :)

    Does anyone seriously think they won't go with Labour?

    First, considering the colloquial meaning of "going with" someone, I'd love to see that turn of phrase vanish from the political lexicon -- if only to preserve my stomach lining.

    But I digress. John, I very seriously think the likes of Chris Trotter, Espiner and Garner (the Laurel and Hardy of television punditry) and Brian Rudman are the last people the Maori Party should be listening to. In the end, you've got to get the results. And Labour is just as prone as National to finding the truth in the old saw that when you ASSUME, you only make an ASS out of U and ME both. Depending on how the poll that counts shakes down, the Maori Party could get better results from the cross benches.

    Discuss.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    I'm relieved to see that the Davis interview raised others' ire. I was astounded by the stupidity of the reporter, but more so the editor. WTF. A while back, at a kiwiblogblog far far away, a very astute and calm contributor, redlogix, noted that should National win, the NZHerald had totally neutered itself as an effective critic. I guess that's the price you pay for pursuing the infotainment strategy.

    And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

    And neither do I but spare us all the false morality. He's the definition of a political easy-lay (he's certainly got around)

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    __And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.__

    Yes, if things look grim now imagine where we'd be without the Families Commission.

    Oh very droll. The commission's big job in the past couple of years has been developing and executing the family violence campaign. Everything I've seen tells me they've done a notably good job at that.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22758 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Dunne's announcement now rules that out. So the potential appeal of UF for the party vote has been approximately halved.

    Not if people buy the current narrative that National has it in the bag. People wishing to moderate excessive power might be tempted to vote Labor instead of common sense-in-chief.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    "I get alone with John Key and {a slight pause} Helen Clark."

    Jaysus! Does Wishart know?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22758 posts Report Reply

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