Hard News: Slumpy Cashflow
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god bless the wowsers...
the one they really want to keep an eye on is nutmeg.
back in the day i remember being 3 days into a trip and thinking... "fck... i'm going to stay like this..."
i either recovered, or just got used to it.
mind you. i am a lot less anxious these days.
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On the other hand, anyone who does the shopping knows what's happening to food prices -- I've done a double-take at the number on the till a few times lately.
On the other other hand, there may just be a very strong causual relationship between the dramatic reduction in diary consumption in this house and the price of the bloody stuff. :)
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Well, if I ever win Lotto I would want to become your primary sponsor!
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PS. those south auckland homes could cost between $600 and $800 per week for a 90% mortgage.
renting at $320 p/w is probably a good option...
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According to a source (who may want to reveal herself), Bohemian absinthe does make you hallucinate. The Czech republic never banned it, so they're still using old recipes in the old way, doing whatever they used to do in the C19th (while still being subject to the EU thujone limit).
I'm tempted to try and get some, except I suspect it would be illegal to import.
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dramatic reduction in diary consumption
... because of all those bloggers, obviously.
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Food prices... wow. I'm astounded at how little you get for $100 at Pak'N'Save these days. And here was me thinking that I actually had a shot at owning a property in Auckland once the prices had fallen a bit - looks like eating is going to have to take precedence for a while.
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What do you all think? Are people just spooked, or are there really hard times ahead?
I really don't get how a consumer confidence survey makes news. Or why anyone pays to do it.
It really is a bunch of people going out and asking "so... how do you feel about the economy? Things looking up? Going to buy major household items soon?"
As far as I can tell, it has about as much scientific value as any public opinion poll, or the virtual super 12 picks on whether the crusaders are going to beat the hurricanes this weekend.
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__dramatic reduction in diary consumption__
... because of all those bloggers, obviously.
Heh. But seriously, I've noticed that the Signature Range pizza cheese mix has become unusable (ie: it burns when you cook the pizza). It seems that to try and hold the price they've started using some very nasty mozzarella.
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We have been desperately trying to pay our mortgage off, started in 2000, so we have made a point of not adding to our debt since.
Maybe it is the Presbyterian in me, but I could see the debt fuelled spending binge that has happened over recent years coming to an end together with the inevitable hangover.
People are both hurting and spooked, especially when they have a $300k mortgage hanging around their necks. Of course, they will blame somebody else, namely the govt. But I just wish Cullen etc. had been a bit bolder early in their reign and tried to move investment away from housing and into productive assets.
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But I just wish Cullen etc. had been a bit bolder early in their reign and tried to move investment away from housing and into productive assets.
Quoted for sad, sad truth.
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People are both hurting and spooked, especially when they have a $300k mortgage hanging around their necks.
Alarmingly, $300k isn't a particularly large mortgage in Auckland. There will be a few people on the North Shore thinking Cromwell looks pretty good at the moment ...
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The problem with absinthe here is that you can't get the good stuff. And by "good stuff", I don't mean absinthe with thujone (locally available absinthe does have thujone, but thujone does bugger all anyway) but absinthe where the herbs are distilled, rather than just added to raw alcohol.
According to a source (who may want to reveal herself), Bohemian absinthe does make you hallucinate. The Czech republic never banned it, so they're still using old recipes in the old way, doing whatever they used to do in the C19th (while still being subject to the EU thujone limit).
Most "Bohemian absinthe" is rubbish: tasteless and rough, and based on marketing more than tradition, hence the ludicrous recent practice of setting it on fire. Absinthe's notoriety is based largely on false notoriety (though anything that uses the word "louche" as part of it's lexicon and inspired decent writing by Aleister Crowley is all right by me), but if you can get some reasonably good stuff (La Fee Parisian will have to do for most of us) it's a very pleasant aperitif. The thought of banning it in the 21st century is laughable, and Paul Hutchinson ought to watch some Chris Morris on the real "killer drug from Prague".
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On PA Address Radio this week, I'll be proposing a tax increase. Punitive fart taxes on both Cullen and English, because the tax cut phony war is making me feel like I'm watching some gastly X-rated reality show - the adult movie equivalent of America's Next Top Model. 'My package is smaller but at least you won't catch a social disease off it." "Shut your hole you stinking tease! Harder! Faster! Now!'
Let's just say I was singularly unimpressed by both men - and Geoff Robinson - on Morning Report today.
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I'm thinking that unless there's a further world shock, like a major bank crash or the US invading Iran, then the NZ economy will (overall) have a few slow quarters and then recover.
I'm not so sure on house prices. A lot of rental "investors" must be running out of options to fill the mortage/rent chasm - and others must be wondering why they are pouring money into that chasm when they aren't likely to see a capital gain in the near future. If people start selling, especially through forced sales, prices could fall 25% or more quite quickly.
But the NZ economy has a massive imbalance between those who live off earned income and those who live off capital (not helped by the way our "Labour" government has unaccountably maintained a tax system biased towards rentiers). If a crash helps remove some of that imbalance, then it'll be a Good Thing.
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Maybe it is the Presbyterian in me, but I could see the debt fuelled spending binge that has happened over recent years coming to an end together with the inevitable hangover.
i'm not presbyterian, and i agree with you whole-heartedly.
there's also the issue of subsidisation of housing.
anyone have a figure handy on how much the "tax offsets" in the form of LAQCs are costing the taxpayer? i know there are tens of thousands of the things, but an actual figure on what this subsidisation is costing me would be interesting.
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Re. food prices... we were discussing this in our sustainable living group a couple of months back and one of the (somewhat older) members of the group did point out that probably 40+ years ago, it was quite normal to spend around 25% of household income on food. Regardless, it does concern me that the greatest increase in food costs have been in the staple food items such as dairy and wheat.
Consumer confidence surveys - hmmmm... how much are they influenced by the plethora of media doom and gloom stories on the state of the economy? I've grown tired of the number of times i've had to listen to my parents and their friends sit around moaning about the state of the economy and how hard everything is and how much the Labour govt is cocking everything up, as they sit in their freehold houses, drinking bottled wine, and deciding where they're going to head for their next holiday...
I'm personally less concerned about when i'll next be able to buy a big screen TV and Blueray, than what could happen to Working for Families if the National govt do swing some kind of majority in the next election...
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Small children, single income family, rising food/fuel prices, renting with little hope of owning....I am not confident. Mainly I am worried about rental rpices going sky-high.
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Coupla points...
The consumer confidence survey actually isn't too bad an indicator of how the domestic economy is going to go. If you look back to the early 1990s it has moved ahead of GDP overall, on most occasions the economy turned since then (the one exception was early this decade, when, for reasons which elude me, it slumped in 2000 when GDP was quite strong, then went up and stayed up when growth hit a slight trough).
It's an even better predicter, though, of election results.
As for yer actshul economy....in 1998 we didn't have the high levels of household debt we have now. That means the slowdown isn't likely to be as sharp as 1998, but it will be around for longer. Households take longer to 'de-leverage' (horrible term) than businesses. Especially if they're facing higher grocery bills at the same time.
So its not a good time to be in the consumer durable business (the earlier discussion about eletrickery and ignorant Harvey Norman salesfolk notwithstanding).
I was in L V Martin's Willis Street store on Saturday (finally bit the bullet and bought a dVD recorder).
I was the only customer.
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I had been planning to upgrade to another, better flat later this year once I'm working full-time, but I might have to put it off. This is, of course, even before student loan repayments come into the equation... we'll be okay, but it could be an uphill battle in 2009.
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One other thing : "Slumpy Cashflow" sounds like the name of a hobbit or an elf or something...
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the one they really want to keep an eye on is nutmeg.
Ahhhh nutmeg - the one that needs absolute-shit-loads to get you high and absolute-shit-loads-plus-just-a-tiny-bit-more to kill you. Perhaps it's the danger adrenaline that does it?
As for le economie - my personal feeling is that we are going to be "taking off the froth", i.e. all that pretty-much-false wealth that was being created through finance companies and property will be hit hard but the strong underlying position of the economy means we will still have homes (rented or owned), food and the odd night at the pub. That new TV that would have been bought with (or at least justified by) that false-wealth might go on hold but the heart of the economy will hold up... -
I got this far through the Herald's Feedback
Bad things happen because we don't think happy thoughts. Do you really think the world would have had to endure Hitler or the Great Depression if we'd all stuck our fingers in our ears and sung lalalalalaaa really loudly? No!
Figured (happily), why bother to read the rest?
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A $300 mortgage not large! Phew, I'm not so bad after all. I must admit to being a little 'spooked' by the latest instability in global markets. The major point for me is the amount of USD that can be simply printed to control the credit crisis. These dollars simply water down the value of the US economy because they are not backed by an increase in value. Something has to give soon. I am seriously looking into commodities (gold,silver) for a diversifed investment. History shows this to be the safest way to go.
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dramatic reduction in diary consumption
A friend of mine has started making his own cheese - though I'm not sure whether its because its now economic, or because they want marscapone and mozzarella on tap...
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