Hard News: The Next Labour Leader
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I don't have the arithmetic to work it out
The electoral commission does (see screenshot)
For instance: Greens 28%, Labour 20%, Mana 2% giving 63/121 seats to Grn/Lab/Mana.
With Hone entrenched as an MP and time to organise, I think Mana will pick up more votes in future elections. Maybe not many, but a few,
I also believe that until there is a major economic crash, which will most likely happen sometime in the next 10 years, NZ will keep sleep-voting for right-wing governments. The scenario I'm looking at above is *after* we get the $5 a litre petrol, banks closed for multiple weeks, power cuts and food queues.
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On the supposed similarity between Greens and Labour, I thought this map of voting similarity was interesting viewing
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Isaac Freeman, in reply to
And in those cases why shouldn’t perspective right-little-supporters vote National anyway if they are going to be dictating policy.
Well, they'd have to perceive their party as having different but complementary values from National, rather than being just "right".
The modern right is (loosely speaking and waving hands a lot) a coalition between economic liberals and social conservatives. These aren't necessarily a single constituency, but National is trying to cater for them both. Different MPs in National lean one way or another, not so much because they disagree with the other perspective, but just because of what personally motivates them more.
I don't follow the positions of National MPs closely, but I think it would be fair to say that the economic liberals are currently in the ascendancy. This would certainly account for why ACT has failed: as you say, ACT voters might as well vote National. But social conservatives will feel their concerns aren't getting as much attention, and will be more likely to consider an alternative party.
At the moment, the closest thing to a significant social conservative party is New Zealand First, which is clearly not a prospect that pleases National. If the Conservative Party could replace New Zealand First as the party of choice for social conservatives, an economic liberal National would have a strong coalition partner who can pull in the voters they have are least able to serve themselves.
In addition, this would allow the economic liberal leadership of National to consolidate their own position within their own party.
I'm sure someone who'd spent more time around the National Party than me could identify other schools of thought that might be better served by their own parties.
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Isaac Freeman, in reply to
For instance: Greens 28%, Labour 20%, Mana 2% giving 63/121 seats to Grn/Lab/Mana.
It's an interesting scenario, and it's amazing how much more plausible it seems with Mr Election Blob at the top of it.
I'd be very interested to know how whether the Labour Party have any contingency plans for a situation like this. It could leave them with a lot of senior disappointed MPs who expected ministerial posts that they no longer have access to. It it wasn't managed very carefully, I fear it could tear Labour apart, just as it did the Alliance, New Zealand First and (if you treat them as a coalition of factions rather than a monolithic party) the Fourth Labour Government.
I also believe that until there is a major economic crash, which will most likely happen sometime in the next 10 years, NZ will keep sleep-voting for right-wing governments. The scenario I’m looking at above is *after* we get the $5 a litre petrol, banks closed for multiple weeks, power cuts and food queues.
Fair enough, and obviously this is where the big deep trends are taking us. But it's hard to know the timeframe, depending as it does on the delaying power of collective denial. I think there's a good chance of another Labour-led government before we get a Greens-led one. But it could all change tomorrow.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I'm sure someone who'd spent more time around the National Party than me could identify other schools of thought that might be better served by their own parties.
I haven't spent much time, but the glaring missing constituency there is the rural vote. They may be socially conservative, but I think the economics matters more to them, and their idea of "economic liberalism" is as jaded as that idea has ever been amongst any of it's support groups - they want it for everyone else except themselves. For their interests, they want infrastructure investment, key costs (like fuel and water) to be kept low. Transport infrastructure aimed at goods rather than people. Good tradespeople to be available and cheap to keep their farming complexes ticking along. Access to telco services without having to personally pay for miles of cabling. Cheap land.
It's a complex mix National are trying to hold onto there, as you'd expect when you've got 48% of the party vote.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
With Hone entrenched as an MP and time to organise, I think Mana will pick up more votes in future elections. Maybe not many, but a few,
Without having any real personal idea of what the Maori voters really think ... one plausible scenario is Mana as the left Maori vote and The Maori Party as the right Maori vote.
This election demonstrated Hone can hold a seat which means a vote for Mana is not wasted. It will be an interesting story in the 2014 election and one that could play a role in which coalition governs. I personally would not be stunned if Mana got a higher percentage than The Maori Party.
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DexterX, in reply to
justice for all and
Party Vote Early Metallica.
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David Cunliffe says
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David Shearer says
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Mana isn't (just) a Maori party - neither Sue Bradford or John Minto are Maori AFAIK.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
Early Metallica
There isn't any other sort. Didn't the band break up in 1990?
Lalalalalala can't hear yoouuuuu!
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BenWilson, in reply to
Mana isn't (just) a Maori party - neither Sue Bradford or John Minto are Maori AFAIK.
I expect that will cause a lot of confusion.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Mana isn't (just) a Maori party - neither Sue Bradford or John Minto are Maori AFAIK.
Personally I think Te Mana comes across as somewhat third-worldist.
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Isaac Freeman, in reply to
I haven't spent much time, but the glaring missing constituency there is the rural vote.
Tru dat. They have their own party in Australia, why not New Zealand?
The Conservatives' election materials did seem to put a lot of emphasis on farming being the backbone of the economy, so presumably they're angling for the rural vote.
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Much has been made of Shearer's inadequate response (compared with Cunliff) to Espiner in last weekend's "Q&A". He will quickly learn how ro deal with situations that limit him to soundbites. But in "The Nation", also at the weekend, where both Shearer and Cunliff faced much longer and more searching interviews by Plunket, Shearer more than held his own and, in my view, emerged the better of the leadership aspirants.
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BenWilson, in reply to
They have their own party in Australia, why not New Zealand?
Pretty sure there have been contenders for this outside of National, but none have done well. National has rewarded that demographic well, or at least they feel it has. More likely is that Labour has simply never appealed - it's whole mentality has always been about industrial work, because the labour can organize in a way it simply can't in rural areas. More likely, the labour pisses off to the city, if it's had enough of being exploited in an orchard or whatever. Working the land is something that runs in families. I'd never thought about it like this, but the dairy farming business has similar barriers to entry to the corner dairy business. ie who would do it that wasn't born into it?
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Tru dat. They have their own party in Australia, why not New Zealand?
They did once… about 100 years ago as the NZ Reform Party (no connection to the current Peter Tashkoff Party). It later formed one half of what is now the National Party, in 1936.
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I'm a Green Party member and have been for 20 years. I very much prefer the Green method of ranking the party list: a postal vote by all current paid up party members. No unions. No delegates. No conferences. Just party members voting directly to rank the list. Perhaps this why I have no issues at all with list MPs. I prefer them. I voted for them before they were elected.
I can readily understand National Party people not liking list MPs. Their party is the least democratic of the three major parties where candidate selection and ranking are concerned. Their party HQ gets t pull 5 people out of it' arse and put them wherever they like on the list. This is how Don Brash got into Parliament. No one in the National party actually voted for him to be there. I've always thought it bizarre that National Party people support a party that does things exactly the way they say they don't like them done. I suspect they don't know...which appears to be a critical requirement for voting for the National Party: their voters not actually knowing much.
Labour felt more like machine politics....often a feature of parties with strong union involvement. Not very accessible and not easily changed.
The Greens are open, democratic and provide a transparent model of how political parties SHOULD operate in an MMP environment.
Yes. Labour needs to be re-founded...and a key part of that is improving dmocracy in that party and making it attractive to join. Why wold anyone join a party where they have no say and are just used to further the interests of others?
They won't.
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How does crony capitalism makes money out of charter schools? Some snake oil son-of-a-bitch friend of the National party will suddenly discover an interest in education and set up a corporation to run a charter school in South Auckland. In a smiling photo opportunity, he’ll be slipped a huge pile of public dosh from which he’ll subtract the amount to run any normal school and skim the rest as a huge, fat CEO salary and all the other fees he can think of. If he isn’t completely stupid, he’ll also cheery pick the best students from the local schools and provide basically the same education as they would have got anyway, but he’ll claim their success as proof of the concept of charter schools.
Upshot: A wealth transfer from the public to the private sector, a group of cheery picked students who would have done well anyway get exactly the same education, and the rest? Well, we all know the underclass need a stern guiding hand with plenty of stick and no carrot.
ACT’s 2014 policy concession should National win again? The re-introduction of the 1834 poor laws. The Herald will publish an editorial saying Poor Laws are a step in the right direction. John Key will be relaxed, saying it is all MMP’s fault. The Business sector will rub its hands in glee at the money to be made from the right to operate privatised workhouses.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Wasn’t a former ACT MP jailed for stealing money from an education charity she’d started?
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
Their party HQ gets t pull 5 people out of it' arse and put them wherever they like on the list. This is how Don Brash got into Parliament. No one in the National party actually voted for him to be there.
Steve: Considering I'm probably the only person around here who's actually been involved in National candidate selections, I think I can say this with modest authority: Foofy tosh.
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Wasn’t a former ACT MP jailed for stealing money from an education charity she’d started?
Well now you mention it…
Although I am sure ACToids will claim she was just stealing back what had been stolen as tax in the first place, so she is really a modern Robin Hoodette.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Foofy tosh.
What is the process, Craig?
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Sacha, in reply to
cheery picked students
their smiling little faces
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