Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Sky is the limit

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  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to bob daktari,

    Attachment

    the same modeling

    Exactly. There’s a whole industry of economists who can produce back of an envelope calculations with the fudge factors on warpdrive to justify spending taxpayer dollars pouring some more concrete.

    If there is a huge untapped market of people wanting to fly across the world for conferences, why won’t they pay enough in hall rental to make the centre viable? And if the conference centre is a loss leader for hotels, then why don’t the hotel industry get together and fund it themselves?

    Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?

    The visitor arrivals don’t seem to show that – they creep slowly upwards with occasional slumps when the world economy tanks. I don’t see a return here that justifies the hype.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

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    And, just in case you think those nips in the graph represent actual real benefits of movies and ball games, above are the Australian figures for the period. They have different boondoggles, but their data tracks ours remarkably well

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • matthew, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    Try Snap. By far the best telco ive come across (and ive tried most). You may spend a few extra dollars but its absolutely worth it. Their customer service is superb and they are even based in Christchurch so you'll be supporting a local business.

    auckland • Since Nov 2013 • 22 posts Report Reply

  • The Ruminator,

    Joyce to his officials:

    "Won't somebody rid me of this turbulent lease?"

    Since Apr 2013 • 54 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?

    There's actually reasonable evidence that however much we might cringe, Middle-Earth marketing is effective for New Zealand:

    "The 6.0 per cent growth we saw for the year ending December 2013, and the continuing growth of 7.3 per cent through to year-end February 2014, is the kind of growth not seen in a decade. We wanted to know what impact our work was having on this remarkable result.

    "While it is clear that improving economies and increased airline capacity are supporting tourism growth, in many countries, New Zealand's high dollar is working against this positivity."

    "What NZIER found was that marketing factors were having a considerable impact in five long-haul markets. And the strongest of these factors was the impact of New Zealand's association with Middle-earth and the new Hobbit films," says Kevin.

    The LOTR/Hobbit productions have also been pretty good for Wellington, of course.

    The rebates for the films cost about the same as (or a little more than) the economic activity they generate, but I don't think tourism is counted in that.

    And Auckland got a notable infrastructure boost as part of the Rugby World Cup (how much economic activity the RWC generated is another matter).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    The 6.0 per cent growth we saw for the year ending December 2013, and the continuing growth of 7.3 per cent through to year-end February 2014, is the kind of growth not seen in a decade

    From NZIER, one of the many economics consultancies who make a living from justifying corporate welfare.

    See the second graph I posted. Australia enjoyed much the same turn-up in arrivals in 2013/14 without any Hobbits. Possibly due to both our dollars falling.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?

    I assume the service industries workforce enjoying better wages would be an indication. I can't sorce those statistics just now, I am having difficulty trying to use my telephone as a computer:)

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4316 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Herald editorial: 'SkyCity must meet its side of bargain'.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to steven crawford,

    an indication

    I'd say total income from tourism, and more narrowly conferences, might be relevant measures. Often wild guesswork, I agree, but StatsNZ, MBIE et al do collect some. Presume the NZICC business case discussed all this too. Plenty seem unimpressed with the latest turn of events, in any case.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Hooton, in reply to steven crawford,

    I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important

    Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings. This is what drives all "commercial" activity by the public sector.

    Auckland • Since Aug 2007 • 194 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    He really wants a safe National seat, doesn’t he?

    I'm quite happy to do my bit to make sure he doesn't even get shortlisted for one north of the Harbour Bridge. (Which reminds me I've got to collect some Kate Sheppards from some folks who were a tad over confident that Colin Craig was going to be "gifted" East Coast Bays. Beats working...)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The rebates for the films cost about the same as (or a little more than) the economic activity they generate, but I don’t think tourism is counted in that.

    And Auckland got a notable infrastructure boost as part of the Rugby World Cup (how much economic activity the RWC generated is another matter).

    Yeah, but there's still reasonable expectations for a LOT more clarity about the assumptions -- and rather dodgy spin -- involved in economic benefit guess-timates that tend to be quoted in the media as holy writ.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Sacha,

    I’d say total income from tourism, and more narrowly conferences, might be relevant measures.

    I think Auckland could use a central city conference theatre that held 3500, and a big, modern exhibition space. Major Pacific-rim cities have this kind of facility.

    They'd be well sited for future public transport developments under the current plan -- shame it's just really not desirable for them to be run by those SkyCity people.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Russell Brown,

    So after bitching about and needlessly politicising any number of considered spending decisions, Brewer is happy to kick in a council subsidy on this?

    He really wants a safe National seat, doesn’t he?

    The story so far: Cr Brewer will probably step down from AKL politics to focus on his spin consultancy. Still, that doesn't preclude him from being given the preferential Epsom treatment.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5418 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Sacha,

    Herald editorial: 'SkyCity must meet its side of bargain'.

    And in a good sign, the vast majority of comments (last I checked at least) are against SkyCity going cap in hand.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5418 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    giving Orsman far too much credit. This assessment is but one tiny example of his stupidity.

    the most effective opposition voice around the council table

    Utter lightweight.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important

    Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings. This is what drives all “commercial” activity by the public sector.

    So who might Auckland's Francis de Groot be? There's no lack of potential candidates among the Len Brown haters.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4591 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings

    I agree. Something as sad as that too. Small men desire big buildings.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    So who might Auckland's Francis de Groot be? There's no lack of potential candidates among the Len Brown haters.

    That CRL is a grand plan, guv.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    I remember when the Aotea convention center opened. Cookstreet market closed and Friday night died.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4316 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Thank you. Never heard that snippet of history. Funny that.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    both our dollars falling

    Against what? E.g. the yen has fallen 10% against the Kiwi over the last 2 years.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1889 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important

    I can perfectly understand why San Diego is rather keen to spend an awful lot money expanding the San Diego Convention Center (largely financed with an enormously controversial hotel tax that has been tied up in legal challenges for years), when over four days San Diego Comic-Con alone has attendance in excess of 130,000.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Hotel tax. Now that's an appropriate way to pay for these things. One way to hide the tax, is by raising the minimum wages for the hotel workers, so that the extra tax take from that, can help pay for the public/privet ball rooms.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4316 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Sacha,

    the most effective opposition voice around the council table

    Utter lightweight.

    That’s just ridiculous. Brewer is perennially on the margins. Getting your name in the paper a lot is not being “effective”. But I guess it does explain Orsman's approach.

    Brewer contriving to find himself in a minority of one today over the convention centre is hilarious though.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

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