What Happens: The Sequel!
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Communicating with people of similar views is boring, and I like a bit of back and forth, it is good fun. There is an element of a desire to perform a public service here. I am a Kiwi who lives in the US and loves both NZ and the US. The gulf of misunderstanding between the countries has never been greater and is so frustrating when ever I go home for a visit. NZ is like an echo chamber, it is all "US bad", "Bush bad", blah blah blah, there is no attempt to understand or to look at things from another perspective, it is painful to say the least. There are sound reasons why the US does some of the things that it does of which most NZers are either completely unaware or seriously misinformed.
I appreciate you coming in James. and I'm pleased we can all be quite civil debating the ideas. But I don't think anyone posting here believes in "US bad". We all know Americans, most of us have visited, some of us lived there, and we all have benefited from American brilliance.
But disliking and disapproving of the current administration is not anti-American. Indeed, on yesterday's vote, it puts us right in line with the American people.
From my point of view, the bastards who have been in charge in recent years threaten the very things I like and treasure about the USA.
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do you remember all the BS about Karl Rove and Valerie Plame? It went on not for months, but for several years. It was all a Rovian conspiracy to punish an administration critic by outing his under cover wife, Rove was going to be frog marched out of the White House etc. etc. Turns out Richard Armitage accidentally let the name slip to Bob Novack. There was no "there" there, I mean nothing, nada, zip, it was all hype and bullshit.
Nice try, but no cigar. Valerie Plame's name was mentioned to multiple reporters by multiple members of the Administration. If that's your idea of a slip of the tongue, you should be protesting on the streets about how massively incompetent the Administration is to make the same mistake over and over.
Do you not even remember Judith Miller spending time in jail for not revealing her source was Cheney's Chief of Staff, Scooter Libby? And she was given that info before Armitage spoke to Nokav.
But by all means, keep going. At this rate you'll be doing Colbert's "We never actually invaded Iraq" routine in no time.
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And as a slight aside, I just love Rumsfeld's attempted gloss on his departure (from the Sydney Morning Herald):
In brief remarks, Rumsfeld described the Iraq conflict as a "little understood, unfamiliar war" that is "complex for people to comprehend".
I guess the words "I got us into this stupid war, I have no idea how to get us out, and I totally screwed the pooch" just stuck in his throat!
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I understand where you are coming from to a degree James, I often feel a little like I'm medaiting between my New Zealand friends and family who make blanket assumptions about America all the time, and my American friends and husband who get very defensive about those assumptions.
A copule of things to add to the discussion. A large number of my Republican friends here are very disillusioned with the war in Iraq, it is certainly not just a democratic thing. I have a close friend who works for reelected Republican Thelma Drake for example, who thinks we shouldn't even still be there. The other thing that has to be remembered is that a huge number of the new democrats are really really conservative, and they're not idiots about Iraq, Virginia's Jim Webb being an example. I'm not expecting huge changes at all, but I agree it will be interesting to see how this result affects the 2008 election.
In relation to Virginia, they're reporting that Allen will have to request a recount, the gap is large enough for that. There was talk today around the office, by people of both persuasion, that a number of the absentee votes still to be counted are military (Norfolk is the biggest naval base in the world), but they don't think it'll be enough to change the result. I'm just hoping that's the case.
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Whilst the national results will have an obvious impact on the Bush administration over the next couple of years the state election results look much more profound for the next presidential election and even for issues like global warming.
Look at California, on the face of things they still have a Rep Governator, but look at the team he has to work with...
Lt. Gov - Democrat
Secretary of State - Democrate (runs elections there)
Controller, Treasurer, just go down the list.This is bad news for the Reps who have done very well on the margins by controlling the levers of the elections.
I must say, I really think it is time the USA removed the powers of running of elections from elected officials and perhaps now that those levers are more evenly spread there is a chance this will happen.
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Just heard Howard Dean talking about the need for election reform in terms of re-districting and and the running of elections.
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Okay- this is why Santorum was evil...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Santorum
...but unfortunately, she's still there...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Musgrave
...ah well, at least Rumsfeld is toast.
Craig Y
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Apologies if this has already been posted up thread but:
Via Brad Delong the actual scope fo the Democrat's victory in the Senate. Or, at least, victory in the popular vote.
One way to look at last night's election is that the implicit gerrymandering of the Senate and the in-the-tank-ness of the press corps are keeping people from realizing how big the blowout was. Consider this: it looks like 32,100 thousand Americans voted for Democratic Senatorial candidates, and only 24,524 thousand Americans voted for Republican Senatorial candidates. That's a 13.4% margin of Democratic victory.
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Danielle, do you have anything useful or intelligent to add to the discussion? If you don't agree with my points, rebut them.
I'm sorry, perhaps I wasn't clear. I don't believe that there is any real point in rebutting Republican talking points, because the way their 'debates' are framed is so problematic; I just wanted to note for the rest of us that your posts contain a fairly large number of those points.
Incidentally, I agree with your assertions about some Americans being misunderstood, even within their own country. The blanket characterisation of southerners as redneck rubes drives me utterly batty.
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The world is like an echo chamber, it is all "US bad", "Bush bad", blah blah blah, there is no attempt to understand or to look at things from another perspective, it is painful to say the least. There are sound reasons why the US does some of the things that it does of which most the world are either completely unaware or seriously misinformed.
I dunno, its pretty simple. You lost us, and most of the world, right about the time fabrication for war began. Nothing much has improved since then.
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Via Brad Delong the actual scope of the Democrat's'victory in the Senate. Or, at least, victory in the popular vote.
Holy crap. I was wondering about that very thing last night, but I genuinely didn't realise the margin was that big.
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i wouldn't be too quick to confirm that difference in popular vote down as gerrymandering.
don't forget that the senate is not intended to be proportional to population. and deliberately so, as far as i recall.
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wow... just reread that comment....
i do actually speak english! i just don't proof read all that well.
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Let me translate Che...
Because the red states are smaller and because every state gets 2 senators it follows that the Senate is not at all proportional.
E.G.
Illinois, NewYork and California.. = 6 senators
Wyoming, Nevada, Utah = 6 senatorsHowever there are lots of republicans in New York and CA which also get to vote so the total vote % split doesn't necessarily follow this pattern.
Now I am confusing myself.
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WH,
Its good to see the American people decide for themselves that the Republican Revolution was a mistake. Awesome.
It now falls to the Democrats to try and fix things, and I guess the hard work begins today. There is already a long list of things to do - among them balancing the budget, reforming the institutionalised corruption that is campaign financing, and developing policy that isn't motivated by an irrational aversion to the public sector.
And, as Al Gore has said, perhaps borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Middle East isn't a great an idea either. Alternative fuels offer the US a chance to reduce carbon emissions while advancing their geo-strategic objectives. Maybe a policy that offers something for everyone?
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Another wrinkle...
Exactly which third of the Senate is up for reelection in any given cycle also has a direct impact on this number.
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Webb beats Allen, Dems take Senate. Quote from Boston.Com
James Webb has defeated incumbent George Allen in Virginia, giving the Democratic Party control of the Senate, the Associated Press and NBC are reporting....
The Associated Press contacted election officials in all 134 localities where voting occurred, obtaining updated numbers Wednesday. About half the localities said they had completed their postelection canvassing and nearly all had counted outstanding absentees. Most were expected to be finished by Friday.
The new AP count showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Virginia has had two statewide vote recounts in modern history, but both resulted in vote changes of no more than a few hundred votes.
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Yeah. Montana, on which the Senate control hangs seems to have had about 400,000 voters. New York has about 5 million. Same representation.
As I said many posts ago it explains a lot about agricultural subsidies, pork barrel politics, the mythologising of "how the west was won (tm)" and why a FT agreement with NZ is *never* going to be a US priority, no matter what McCain says. If 2000 sheep farmers in Montana can swing the Senate...
It has been pleasing to see more scrutiny of the voting process. Lawyers, hotlines and observers for both parties *everywhere*. Anything which enhances the integrity of the system is good for democracy, participation and turnout.
I am sure this is one reason why turnout is so high in NZ, we really do have confidence that our vote will be counted.
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The DCCC were also encouraging people to video the voting process and post irregularities on YouTube.
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Looks like it will all be over soon. No recounts no Nothing. Asssociate Press is reporting....
Democrats Take Control of the Senate
The new AP count showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Virginia has had two statewide vote recounts in modern history, but both resulted in vote changes of no more than a few hundred votes.
An adviser to Allen, speaking on condition of anonymity because his boss had not formally decided to end the campaign, said the senator wanted to wait until most of canvassing was completed before announcing his decision, possibly as early as Thursday evening.
The adviser said that Allen was disinclined to request a recount if the final vote spread was similar to that of election night.
The victory puts Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in line to become Senate majority leader. He has led the Democrats since Tom Daschle, D-S.D., was defeated two years ago.
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Ooops....beaten by David by 30 mins.....
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Ooops....beaten by David by 30 mins.....
Heh. Doubt that'll happen very often.
Nice to see the lawyers may not be needed to get a result.
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BTW, very interesting piece just posted on the NYTimes website, arguing that the ideological complexion of the new Democratic majority is a wee bit more complex than most Kiwi pundits realise.
Vile as Rick Santorum was, pardon my scepticism as to whether Bob Casey is going to give social libertarians - or even old school 'mind your own business' conservatives - any more joy. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but it's going to fun to watch Perlosi and Reid keep the proverbial bag of kittens in line...
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Interesting Kos Post On VA Recount Law & Why Allen has no choice but to concede.
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We have a couple of US student teachers at school here at the moment and as far as I can tell they are quite happily surprised at developments back home. They are both from Ohio, so it's difficult to say they reflect any sort of public feeling (quite ridiculous actually considering there's only two of them) but from what I've been reading on various american boards (abc cnn et al) It looks as though the dirty tricks campaigns and attack ads startegies have backfired on those who employed them so thats quite heartening to see. Myself I'm glad to see the back of Rummy (the fabricator) and complete republican control but doubt that very much will change. Iraq will continue to be an almighty s**tstorm for quite some time yet. How much money will continue to be sunk into that hole in the desert remains to be seen.
Quote from El Presidente " I thought we'd do alright, shows what I know" A truer word never spoken.
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