What Happens: The Sequel!
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Hi Don,
I've worked in a polling station on election day and the counts for the station's electorate are relatively simple to get right, it's the voting outside of the electorate (that I would say is an tiny portion of the vote - unless, for example, you've have a large number of troops stationed in another country) so the inital counts are fairly good.
tim
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Lee, Whangarei looks a nicer world from where I'm sitting...
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Ken Blackwell has lost Ohio..
So thats some good news for starters...
DCCC HOR election watch page here
http://www.dccc.org/results/index.html
Is a goodie
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I'm checking out the CNN site:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/bop/index.htmlit's easy to understand (which is useful for a gumby like me)
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Tim, unless you have two CIRs to chuck into the blender :-)
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Katherine Harris has lost senate bid in Florida...
Apparently Chris Matthews just announced loss on MSNBC...
So Harris and Blackwell.... Poetic Justice indeed...
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Damn it, Katherine Harris was entertaining at least.
I'm sure she won't have far to look for a new job, though.
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Another interesting fascet of US elections is how the race for Governors is being watched. Governors control the state executive, the state executive does stuff like, oh, run elections. Remember how Jeb Bush's campaign manager is (was?)also the Chief Electoral Officer equivalent for Florida?
The influence of this can presumably be quite profound adn will no dount influence the reult of the 2008 presidential election. The only equivalent I can think of is the way electoral boundaries (used to be?) drawn up, usually in favour of the ruling party. Not such an issue now that we have MMP, although Rodney Hide might disagree.
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Serendipity, Harris was losing just as I made my post :-)
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WH,
Interesting statistic from the Nelson/Harris CNN link that Alastair posted:
Breakdown by HOW GEORGE W. BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOB
(Proportion of voters) Voted Nelson/Voted Harris
Strongly Approve (25%) 23% 76%
Somewhat Approve (20%) 35% 63%
Somewhat Disapprove (12%) 78% 21%
Strongly Disapprove (42%) 94% 4%Early doors I suppose, but lets hope this holds.
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More in the Governors' powers:
"The outcome of these elections will also play a big part in redistricting, the drawing of political lines that sets the stage for who can win Congress. The state party with control over a governor's office and the entire legislature has near-total freedom to draw congressional districts as they see fit. Democrats could snare unified control in Colorado, Minnesota and more."
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Looks like the first pick-up is in the works in Indiana - 61.7/38.3 to the Dems with 33.6% counted.
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Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser is live online analysing and answering at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/11/06/DI2006110600433.html
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Ha ha - with 219 votes in, Robert Casey leads Rick Santorum in the PA Senate race. Only a few hundred thousand votes left to go.
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Looks like the first pick-up is in the works in Indiana - 61.7/38.3 to the Dems with 33.6% counted.
Still 62-38 with 41% counted. Jesus. Did the incumbent Republican do something to really piss people off?
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Where its at IMHO
Missouri
Montana
Maryland
Tennesseehttp://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/senate/
So far not really reporting cept missouri which is dead heat with almost nothing reported.
Connecticut... Leiberman... is incidentally behind at present. Would be nice if that lasted all night...
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Leiberman's exit polling has been all over the show so far so I don't think we can count on that...
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Actually on another look at that page... is not at all encouraging for dem senate control at this stage... New Jersey and Tennesee both look ugly. Admittedly almost no votes in yet.....
Ohio on the other hand looks good for democrats.
... I am going to bail for a bit catch bus home and turn on the telly....
From the look of things the senate control issue ain't gonna be settled for some time yet.
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Still 62-38 with 41% counted. Jesus. Did the incumbent Republican do something to really piss people off?
That's still well above the Crazification factor
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How come we the people got scooped by Stuff?
Seems Ohio has elected its first Democratic Governor in 16 years....
Let it be a sign! Please?
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These exit polls are amazing - who in their right mind is going to stick around for long enough to answer this list of 1000 questions?
My favourite is "FAMILY'S FINANCIAL SITUATION"The reponses are:
"getting ahead; have just enough; and falling behind"
How can you tell? Am I gittin' ahead? and of so, of whom?
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Hum... you'd think CNN would have learned from the last two electoral cycles that it's better to get it right than get it right now. Both the NYTimes and Washington Post are being very cautious about projecting anything off exit polls and/or reports of 1-3% of precincts.
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Still early days and the exit polls dont seem to actually relate to real numbers.
Tim are you stateside?
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Haydn, good call on crazification, very funny read....
Being the trainspotter I am I kept on reading the comments and found a link to this one:
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Dems are claiming three now:
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