Posts by Rob Stowell
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to tussock,
This is a very bad thing.
We seem to be watching (in slow motion, because history isn't a racing car - until it hits the powerpole) the end of the US dominated world. The constitution, the electoral system, the tiers of government, many of the institutions were set up in the 18th century. There have been times they served well, but they seem broken now. The politicisation of the supreme court, the filibuster in the senate, partisan gridlock. The electoral college, the senate which are barely democratic. The 2nd amendment, designed (hahaha) to prevent ever having a 'standing army'.
There have been times when the united states were united- at least enough to change some of these things. Now an amendment to the constitution is impossible, because there isn't the unity. Gotta wonder if it will ever come back. -
I've seen too many leftists signing up to hate Hillary. Lies and mud and unsubstantiated innuendo from left right and centre (that's you, New York Times.) It's hard to explain but she pisses a lot of people off.
More than that: I don't think she ever really "got it" about the big changes needed to create an economy that worked for most people rahter than the people with the most.
So enthusiasm gap yeah.
The most cogent analysis I've seen was from before the election - an article someone posted about how Trump's lies felt as if they came from true emotions. Hillary can feel emotionally inauthentic. (I suspect part of it is feeling self conscious.)
Another factor that seems to come up is how in this "post media" world people can find all sorts of confirmation of just about anything. We feel an emotion and then we find stuff to confirm that emotion and we believe it - because it feels emotionally true.
I think this helps to explain the remarkable variety and persistence of conspiracy theories out there right now. People feel powerless. A conspiracy - it's all rigged - is a way to explain and confirm that feeling. You don't like Hillary. You explain by insisting she's a criminal who can't be trusted because the emails.
What we don't have on either side of politics right now are compelling stories that explain where we're at and how we can get somewhere better. So we get revanchist dreaming and scapegoating - its the Mexicans or the 1%; both sides turn on "the mainstream media". -
It feels an odd time to mention it with the looming trumpocalypse and all, but seeing more US states vote to legalise marijuana for medical and personal use, and looking at the polling here, the timing might be good to get a citizen's initiated 'reeferendum' on the ballot next year.
National will probably pooh pooh it. Labour might too - but that could cost them dearly with the option to vote Green on the table. It would bring the issue into the forefront, where politicians don't want it - and that also might have a good effect. Whadda ya reckon? -
Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to Aidan,
Krugman’s article has the important caveat that we’re in a period of substantial excess savings.
I’m curious where these savings are coming from. Is it mostly the ‘1%’ looking for places to park their loot? Oil barons? Russian oligarchs? Baby-boomer pension funds?
Because most western governments are borrowing, and most people around the world don’t seem awash in money (or there’d be far more spending and economic growth) and a lot of countries (like us – and the US) have negative trade balances. -
Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Bart Janssen,
it’s pretty clear the public are not informed and really don’t care.
I think it's instructive to flip from seeing this in terms of knowledge and information, to seeing it in terms of emotion and emotional satisfaction. We like to see ourselves as rational animals, but we are experts at rationalising our emotions after we've behaved on them.
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The prong of Trump and the GOP's game that may fade from memory as the Clintons leave the spotlight is the decades long strategy of demonising Hillary. Mountains of mud were thrown, and thrown again, and stuck, even as investigation showed them to be completely unfounded.
She wasn't a great candidate for a range of reasons. But she was a terrific lightning rod for hate and fear and conspiracy. You can be a weak candidate and not hated. She was widely hated, and not just by GOP misogynists.
I'm still astonished how many people avowedly sympathetic to 'the left' despised her so deeply. This has to be a major factor - ensuring lowered voter turn-out and twisting white male voting. -
Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to Gareth,
That's we call a hell of a bargaining chip.
You can't bargain with a chimp. Stiffing creditors is what Trump does best. Also, one consequence of the election is likely to be a fall in the value of the US$ vs the renminbi. China is likely to lose money but gain power ...
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Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to Paul Campbell,
“not the leader of my free world”
I’d go with that one. Self-made ignoramus and not the leader of my free world.
These are good times for verbal invective. The Scots got off to a great start but now the shitgibbon is president, the rest of the world is catching on. -
Trump vs 'the media' could be the next big sideshow. Outside of Hannity on Fox, there's been remarkable unanimity from newspapers and major media organisations that Trump is unfit to be president.
Some might come around, but it's likely the war of words will ramp up, as Hillary fades away as a focus of media attention leaving Trump's legal problems, business affairs, sexual behaviour and personal foibles in the spotlight.
He's advocated changing the libel laws and loves to threaten legal action. There appear to be plenty of major media outlets who are ready for that scrap. How Mr ThinSkin will react is anyone's guess, but I'd bet on the shortest political honeymoon in history.