Pennsylvania, at last
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Do you really think that any Super Delegate should consider being swayed by the idea that 40%+ of democrats in Michigan voting against Clinton really means that Obama has 0.0% support there?
I agree Michigan is much less of an argument than Florida.
Here's another reality check...
Well it all gets a bit complicated. From what I've read the big defection concern is the blue collar vote which at present are voting Clinton but could, as they have in the past, switch to Republican. It's unlikey that liberal woman, another strong Hillary demographic, would vote McCain.
I'm going way out on a limb here but if Obama and Clinton can end this amicably (which will no doubt be with Obama as candidate) then the Hillary organisation may very well be able to keep the blue collar vote in the fold - which might not have happened had Clinton not been contesting so strongly - she's got their loyalty. That's pretty wild but no more wild than a lot of the claims about her destroying the Dems prospects.
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I'm going way out on a limb here but if Obama and Clinton can end this amicably (which will no doubt be with Obama as candidate) then the Hillary organisation may very well be able to keep the blue collar vote in the fold - which might not have happened had Clinton not been contesting so strongly - she's got their loyalty.
I'm not going out on much of a limb because it's already started, but Clinton's own rhetoric might just come back to bite her and the Democrats if she doesn't win. She's not going to be able to 'amicably' walk back anything if she ends up becoming the star of a slew of attack ads. For her own sake, I hope nobody at the RNC knows how to work a PVR. Guess we're just going to have to wait and see, but it would be a delicious irony if the woman who coined the phrase 'vast right wing conspiracy' ended up becoming it's new best bud.
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...but it would be a delicious irony if the woman who coined the phrase 'vast right wing conspiracy' ended up becoming it's new best bud.
and maybe that's what those dastardly Reps want you to think. (joke - but if they're gaming this then why stop at the first move?)
Anyway, here's the basis of the Dems dilema at the moment, aggregataing all recent polls gives the electoral college votes in presidential match ups as -
Obama 269 McCain 254 Ties 15
Clinton 289 McCain 239 Ties 10Tricky. Obama's present voting coalition isn't doing as well as hers. I suspect that they will have to bring these togther to win (I'm assuming he gets the nomination).
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Charlie Cook on winning battles, losing wars.
(via the very partisan but agreeable-to-me AMERICAblog).
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That National Journal article looks like a fair description of the state of play at present.
Such a close race really does highlight the faults of the Dem selection process. Maybe they would be better off just having the supers make the decision. It's great so many people get to be involved, NC voters are now pleased that they get a meaningful say for the first time ever, but it's so time consuming for the candidates. It might be better to get it over with in a weekend and let every one get back to the business of running a country.
There's a big problem now the person most likely to get the nomination is the least likely to succeed on Nov. Not because of any faults on their part but because of how the demographics of the candidates' voter base have divided up.
MyDD has a good breakdown on that.
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