Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Interesting Britain!

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  • Kumara Republic,

    I've only just noticed the UKIP vote was divided up between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May. I'm guessing the economically anxious wing of UKIP flocked to Corbyn while the culturally anxious went to May. The few who have both types of anxieties weren't enough to keep UKIP in the House of Commons - pity it's the same kind of dual-anxiety that's in the White House right now.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5341 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    Well the UKIP vote, circa 2015, were just as divided as any other group of voters. Would Welsh Kippers have much in common with those in Kent, or Hull? Probably not

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1013 posts Report Reply

  • Neil,

    The courageous thing for Corbyn to do would be to declare for Remain and second referendum.

    Macron has left the door open.

    Since Nov 2016 • 143 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    I've only just noticed the UKIP vote was divided up between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.

    My crude estimate from roughly crunching the numbers on some of the seats was a split of around around 2:1.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2708 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rich Lock,

    Labour voters were twice as likely to have supported UKIP than Tory voters?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10504 posts Report Reply

  • NoFace, in reply to Ben Austin,

    That's being facile though.

    The areas that voted Leave in numbers were more often than not traditional areas of Labour support.

    A large number of traditional Labour voters voted strongly to leave.

    Corbyn has done very well not to patronise these voters, while also keeping the activists and others in the fold.

    Since Dec 2007 • 6 posts Report Reply

  • NoFace, in reply to BenWilson,

    exactly

    Since Dec 2007 • 6 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to BenWilson,

    Labour voters were twice as likely to have supported UKIP than Tory voters?

    Yeah. Looking at the raw numbers/percentages for some of the first returns, the UKIP votes collapsed completely, so where they'd had, say, 15% of the vote, the Labour share was increasing by 10%, and the tory share by 5%.

    I realise this is very crude, and doesn't take account of changes in turnout, etc, and mental maths has never been my strong suite, but Labour certainly seemed to be picking up considerably more (and roughly twice as many) of the collapsing UKIP vote.

    Anyway, the first post-election YouGov poll is out. Haven't seen any crunched figures for turnout yet.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2708 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin, in reply to NoFace,

    facile

    I don't believe so. There has been loads of analysis of Labour vote/ Ref vote up to now and it does seem that a strong majority of people who actually vote Labour voted Remain. This is quite different from people who belong to groups/class/areas that usually or used to vote Labour.

    It also ignores fact that large parts of the so called white working classes have long voted Conservative or swung back and forth.

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1013 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Ben Austin,

    This is quite different from people who belong to groups/class/areas that usually or used to vote Labour.

    Quite. The units we're interested in are people, not areas of people. When you don't actually poll people with the two questions at once, you can't establish what structure exists in the interaction of the questions. It is quite possible to have a strong relationship between UKIP support and Labour support in an area without that implying that UKIP and Labour supporters are the same people. The opposite could be true, that Labour supporters are anti UKIP, but happen to live in the same areas.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10504 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    One interesting anecdote I heard from a Leave area this year was that UKIP made special effort to visit the kind of pubs where people start drinking the moment the doors open in the morning. Not to campaign so much as to encourage the patrons to register to vote, although I'm sure they did a bit of campaigning too. Which does sort of support the fact that Leave did mobilise traditional non voters rather well.

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1013 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers,

    I was so dreading the impending May dictatorship that I avoided all election coverage after polls closed on the 8th. I only discovered what had happened when I woke at 5 am the next morning to go to Heathrow (I had to be at a conference in Canada the next day) and my wife told me that the Tories hadn't got their majority.

    The Brits at the conference spent much of the time clustered around our phones. A colleague of mine -- certainly no fan of Corbyn -- couldn't hide his glee. A postdoc I knew vaguely was disappointed -- she thought Labour would win. When asked why, she replied wistfully, "I was in a social media bubble."

    We haven't won anything yet -- not by a long shot -- but there's a greater sense of quiet determination and common cause about than I've felt for a long time.

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

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